WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

In case anyone is interested. Here is the link I used to get the data on my previous post.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... W-list.txt

[beaufort12]

Can someone explain what has changed synoptically to suddenly change what I thought was a consensus of opinion about a loop or partial loop. I thought we were expecting to see a number of hours of movement to the NE before a return to a more westerly or WNW track. I'm only an interested observer, but I don't buy this thing taking off the the NE. For the Philippines, Vietnam, China, I hope so. But the pattern has been to force storms from the Philippines to Hainan Island to Vietnam, and once the influence of the trough is passed, I would think this storm will follow that pattern. But I'm no pro, nor even an amateur.

I think that someone posted that there are three numerical models that support a northeast tract.

Yes, three models are projecting a path off to the NE. Let's hope that's correct...

msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 22w (Lupit) warning nr 017//
rmks

Model guidance remains in fair agreement,
with three notable exceptions: WBAR, TCLAPS and GFDN keeping the
system on a northward track around the str to the northeast and into
the midlatitude flow. Ecmf, GFS, ukmo, and JGSM are all in agreement
with a track over the northern tip of Luzon or the southern Luzon
Strait. NOGAPS struggles with initializing the str over southern
China, placing it too far to the west and south, and this leads to a
northwestward track into Taiwan.

[ricmood]

^^^Yup! Last 3 images of the loop shows it is slowing, bust still in northeast direction.

[StormingB81]

THis looks like it may have moved mroe NE then they though. and they say it should move NW. Could this possible go into Japan? Or even miss everyone?

[ricmood]

One more degree northeast and its outside Philippine area of responsibility

[drdavisjr]

Could a pro met answer this:

Let's say this storm could no longer travel to the west due to the dipping trough, could no longer go east due to the developing STR and could not go north due to the building high over siberia...what would the storm do? Just get weaker until it spins out?

[beaufort12]

Since most everyone in the west is still in bed I guess we can have something completely different, a little humor here. Here's what Groucho said when asked if he knew the weather forecast:

"Well, weather is weather, isn't it? Still, on the other hand, water is water. And east is east and west is west and if you take cranberries and stew them like applesauce they taste much more like prunes than rhubarb does. Now you tell me what you know."

Of course, it's probably only funny when he says it. OK, back to frame watching.

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 134.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 134.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.4N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.3N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.3N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.2N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.1N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.7N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.1N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 134.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 700
WTPQ20 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 17.6N 133.9E GOOD
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 18.1N 132.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 200600UTC 18.7N 129.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 210600UTC 18.9N 124.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC Warning=130kts

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 134.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 134.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.4N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.3N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.3N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.2N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.1N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.7N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.1N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 134.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z.//

[Derek Ortt]

it is still on the MM5 track. As I said late Friday, don't be fooled by a temporary NE track

this shows the advantages of high-resolution regional modeling

[Derek Ortt]

finally got the output of yesterdays mm5 off of cmc, and it shows recurve now. The other two are still showing westward turn

[drdavisjr]

finally got the output of yesterdays mm5 off of cmc, and it shows recurve now. The other two are still showing westward turn

So, do you think it will recurve, loop, or turn west?

[HURAKAN]

Multi-agency track

[drdavisjr]

Multi-agency track

Thanks HURAKAN.

Still no real changes for the landfall forecast...I guess this storm really wants a piece of the Philippines.

[HURAKAN]

Looking like the monster it's!

[theavocado]

I think that someone posted that there are three numerical models that support a northeast tract.

Be careful picking and choosing models with favorable outputs. That comment was taken out of context, and what the Prognostic Reasoning said was that those three models took it to the northeast as outliers. The three models are the non-global models (WBAR, a barotropic tracker; TCLAPS, a regional tracker designed for the southern hem; GFDN, a nested tracker within NOGAPS), however, the rest of the models within the JTWC consensus are all global full spectrum models that have been performing better (JGSM, UKMO, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFS) and call for a westward track. Other models that aren't in the consensus also agree with a westerly track (MM5, COAMPS, CMC).

[theavocado]

Could a pro met answer this:

Let's say this storm could no longer travel to the west due to the dipping trough, could no longer go east due to the developing STR and could not go north due to the building high over siberia...what would the storm do? Just get weaker until it spins out?

In your scenario with building high pressure areas, the storm would have no problem moving in the induced weakness between the STR to the east and high pressure to the north. In fact, the stronger the STR, the better it moves. The problem comes when the STR is too weak, and then the system moves at the whim of weak flow in the region (like Parma did the other week over Luzon).

If the system were to remain quasi-stationary it would weaken as it eventually pumped up cooler water, but it would have to do a lot of pumping to get to the point of dissipation (ignoring other factors like supressed outflow, etc).

[drdavisjr]

Could a pro met answer this:

Let's say this storm could no longer travel to the west due to the dipping trough, could no longer go east due to the developing STR and could not go north due to the building high over siberia...what would the storm do? Just get weaker until it spins out?

In your scenario with building high pressure areas, the storm would have no problem moving in the induced weakness between the STR to the east and high pressure to the north. In fact, the stronger the STR, the better it moves. The problem comes when the STR is too weak, and then the system moves at the whim of weak flow in the region (like Parma did the other week over Luzon).

If the system were to remain quasi-stationary it would weaken as it eventually pumped up cooler water, but it would have to do a lot of pumping to get to the point of dissipation (ignoring other factors like supressed outflow, etc).

Thank you. I've learned something new today. These storms and their tracts are very fascinating, just wish it looked better for the Philippines.