EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[AdamFirst]

It looks like the track is slowly shifting south. Could this mean maintaining major status if it doesn't make the trek near Baja Sur?

[Cyclenall]

My jaw shot down when I first looked at the NRL image this evening! I knew it was a CAT5. The first official (but not unofficially) category 5 I have ever tracked in the Epac!! This has indeed surpassed Jimena this year. It is incredible how rapid Rick strengthened over these last 36 hours! Even though the NHC was bullish, it was still too low like Derek hinted at. It looks great. The strongest since Linda in 1997 too. It's probably in the top 6 best looking tropical cyclones I have ever seen but I just wish sunset didn't come so early. They could have started recon yesterday when there were signs pointing to a historic hurricane, conducting research.

The speed in which the eye cleared out within the last 8 hours is also remarkable. It's similar to the way Rita strengthened to CAT5 status.

It's entertaining going through the archives and seeing the NHC issue an update 37 minutes after the 2:00 am PDT package. It's not like it strengthened 15-20 knots in 37 minutes...or did it? Lol. I've also never seen a Epac forecast quite like the 8:00 pm PDT one where they are forecasting 160 knots in 12 hours! I'm I reading that right? That would tie Linda's winds, be the strongest TC on the planet since Monica or Wilma (not sure which one), and break one of the rates of intensification records. It would be cool to see it reach 160, but it's hard to say if it can achieve it since near -90C cloud tops would have to fully surround the eye (ring) like Linda and Wilma did. A 99% of it being a CAT5 in 12 hours on the wind speed chart is completely alien.

[Derek Ortt]

the AF planes are not intended for research purposes

[Ptarmigan]

Actually, that would tie Linda. What was the windfield of Linda though?

If I recall, Linda's windfield was the same size as Rick at its peak.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2009 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 15:02:20 N Lon : 106:18:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 905.6mb/158.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.6 7.7 7.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +18.5C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 06z:

EP, 20, 2009101806, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1066W, 155, 906, HU

155 knots

[HURAKAN]

Extremely impressive

[Duddy]

Extremely impressive

Oh my God...

That IR shot literaly took my breath away. I have never seen such a beautiful storm...

[ozonepete]

Extremely impressive

Just amazing. A really perfect form.

[oaba09]

Wow....A Cat 5.......Is this going to be a cat 5 when it hits land?

[Cyclenall]

882mb would translate to about 175-180 kt in the environment Rick is in. That would be a world record for winds.

Link: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... index.html

Look at #18 on that list.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180839
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT RICK IS MAINTAINING AN EXTREMELY
WELL-DEFINED 15 N MI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS QUITE EXTENSIVE AS WELL.
BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TO 7.5
WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 155 KT...I.E.
CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL MAY BE TRYING TO FORM WHICH COULD PRESAGE AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAKENING. IN ANY EVENT...
RICK HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE TRACK OF RICK...GLOBAL
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-30 KT IN ITS 3-5 DAY
PREDICTION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE SHIPS
AND LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THOSE MODELS
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER...TO ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE WILL NOT BE AFFECTED SO MUCH BY THE
SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION...285/12...CONTINUES ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.
THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.
RICK IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA IN A DAY OR
TWO...SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RICK WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL REMAINS THE OUTLIER
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IN THAT IT SHOWS LITTLE MOTION BEYOND 48
HOURS AND IS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS A
TRACK OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BEAR
IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN LANDFALL LOCATION AND TIMING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE 4- AND 5-DAY TIME FRAME.

ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FIVE
STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA...IT COULD STILL BE
QUITE POWERFUL BY THAT TIME. INTERESTS IN THAT AREA AND ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.3N 107.2W 155 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.9N 109.0W 150 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W 140 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 111.7W 130 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 19.1N 112.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 21.5N 111.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 109.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 28.0N 104.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[jinftl]

Not looking good for Cabo right now...Rick should weaken by the time he approaches Baja....how much is the big question




Approaching Baja in 72-96 hours, the intensity forecasts suggest a strong ts/cat 1 to a strong cat 2/cat 3 at that time frame.....margin of error is high and will be significant in what severity of storm southern baja could experience.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 181240
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009) 20091018 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091018 1200 091019 0000 091019 1200 091020 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 107.8W 16.7N 110.7W 17.0N 113.2W 16.8N 114.9W
BAMD 15.6N 107.8W 16.7N 110.0W 17.7N 111.8W 18.6N 113.1W
BAMM 15.6N 107.8W 16.6N 110.1W 17.3N 112.0W 17.7N 113.4W
LBAR 15.6N 107.8W 16.5N 110.0W 17.5N 112.0W 18.5N 113.8W
SHIP 155KTS 149KTS 140KTS 126KTS
DSHP 155KTS 149KTS 140KTS 126KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091020 1200 091021 1200 091022 1200 091023 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 115.2W 15.8N 111.7W 18.2N 107.3W 21.0N 104.7W
BAMD 19.3N 113.8W 20.4N 113.8W 22.7N 112.4W 26.3N 106.0W
BAMM 17.9N 114.0W 18.3N 111.7W 21.6N 109.9W 24.7N 106.0W
LBAR 19.5N 114.9W 22.7N 114.9W 25.8N 111.5W 29.2N 102.6W
SHIP 112KTS 87KTS 55KTS 0KTS
DSHP 112KTS 87KTS 49KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 107.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 105.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 102.5W
WNDCUR = 155KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 150KT
CENPRS = 906MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 120NM RD34NW = 120NM

[HURAKAN]

Not as symmetric as before

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/20E-list.txt



Quite an impressive jump there!

[CrazyC83]

EP, 20, 2009101812, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1078W, 155, 906, HU, 34, NEQ

BT at 1200Z still has 155 kt - if that is the case, I would guess it was 160 kt at 0600Z as it looked stronger then (but still very, very impressive now).

[cycloneye]

First visible image today.