ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[deltadog03]

MAX sfc winds on VDM are 85kts. the sfc center and flight level centers are within 5nm of each other. Thats important.

[HURAKAN]

Is it me or is the eye shrinking?

[brunota2003]

The pressure dropped from earlier, the winds just havent caught up...yet

[tolakram]

Plane reported closed eyewall, I think that's significant. Eye does look smaller, but that might be because of the increased convection surrounding it, plus the proximity to the radar site.

[Hyperstorm]

The winds are going to take longer to catch up to the pressure. I know the pressure is still dropping and we'll be looking at a category 2 hurricane. That intensity seems very reasonable. Also, I believe the NE quadrant has the strongest winds. Definitely a category 2 before 4 pm ET...

[Sanibel]

I could be wrong but this pressure drop is probably from SST's. Ida could be trading-off windspeed to maintain intensity considering its surrounding environment and small size.

[JonathanBelles]

My mom just got back from a 7-day cruise in the Western Caribbean. Stops included Honduras, Belize, Cozumel, Cancun. She was in Belize on Wednesday day and she reported a LOT of lightning at that time. She said it started raining on Tuesday and never stopped. Conditions were bad on board with large waves, a lot of rocking, and rain. They made an early stop in Cozumel for a 'severe medical case of sea sickness' and a few other injuries due to falls. This occurred on Friday night.

[Frank2]

Does anyone know if a Cancun radar loop is available?

[Javlin]

I. 7 C / 3058 m
J. 18 C / 3040 m
K. 4 C / NA
aren't the se the temps in and out of the system and the bigger the decrempency the healthier the storm??are am I using the wrong ones?

[jlauderdal]

My mom just got back from a 7-day cruise in the Western Caribbean. Stops included Honduras, Belize, Cozumel, Cancun. She was in Belize on Wednesday day and she reported a LOT of lightning at that time. She said it started raining on Tuesday and never stopped. Conditions were bad on board with large waves, a lot of rocking, and rain. They made an early stop in Cozumel for a 'severe medical case of sea sickness' and a few other injuries due to falls. This occurred on Friday night.

awesome trip, a boat full of old people falling over and chunking

[HURAKAN]

337
UZNT13 KNHC 081748
XXAA 58177 99215 70858 08115 99987 26821 15078 00619 ///// /////
92571 28260 18091 85316 22457 18583 70979 12850 21580 88999 77999
31313 09608 81718
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 08
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2158N08578W 1722 MBL WND 15591 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 19081 986695 WL150 15088 084 REL 2149N08579W 171836 SPG 215
8N08578W 172242 =
XXBB 58178 99215 70858 08115 00987 26821 11944 24429 22922 28261
33850 22457 44795 18250 55707 14256 66695 11850
21212 00987 15078 11985 15076 22983 15086 33963 15598 44954 15591
55902 18093 66869 18584 77850 18583 88695 21580
31313 09608 81718
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 08
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2158N08578W 1722 MBL WND 15591 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 19081 986695 WL150 15088 084 REL 2149N08579W 171836 SPG 215
8N08578W 172242 =
;

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Ok well I am off to watch the Patriots game. I will be back during commercials to check up on things.

[PTPatrick]

12 z NOGAPS is in. Looks Like Plaquimines parish landfall then slow ENE movement into Jackson Co MS, Mobile area then almost east.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest imagery suggests that wind shear has let up some. Look at the fanning of the clouds to the south of the cyclone compared to yesterday and earlier today. I know the shear was not forecast to decrease at this time, but if it indeed has let up some, is indeed helping the current convective burst of organization.

The stronger the system gets before it reaches the cooler waters and higher shear further north, the stronger system we'll see making landfall, either as a tropical or extratropical cyclone.

An actual hurricane making landfall between Pensacola and Biloxi seems like a higher probability based on current trends...

[HURAKAN]

roduct: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 17:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 8th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 21.5N 85.8W (View map)
Location: 71 miles (114 km) to the ENE (70°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (29.15 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 24.7°C (76.5°F) 150° (from the SSE) 78 knots (90 mph)
1000mb -119m (-390 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 571m (1,873 ft) 28.2°C (82.8°F) Approximately 18°C (64°F) 180° (from the S) 91 knots (105 mph)
850mb 1,316m (4,318 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) Approximately 15°C (59°F) 185° (from the S) 83 knots (96 mph)
700mb 2,979m (9,774 ft) 12.8°C (55.0°F) Approximately 8°C (46°F) 215° (from the SW) 80 knots (92 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:18Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall. (135 - This is either the radians or degrees to the eye center. Our system cannot tell the difference.)

Splash Location: 21.58N 85.78W
Splash Time: 17:22Z

Release Location: 21.49N 85.79W (View map)
Release Time: 17:18:36Z

Splash Location: 21.58N 85.78W (View map)
Splash Time: 17:22:42Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 91 knots (105 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 81 knots (93 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 695mb to 986mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 88 knots (101 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20801

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
987mb (Surface) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 24.7°C (76.5°F)
944mb 24.4°C (75.9°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F)
922mb 28.2°C (82.8°F) Approximately 17°C (63°F)
850mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) Approximately 15°C (59°F)
795mb 18.2°C (64.8°F) Approximately 13°C (55°F)
707mb 14.2°C (57.6°F) Approximately 8°C (46°F)
695mb 11.8°C (53.2°F) Approximately 7°C (45°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (Surface) 150° (from the SSE) 78 knots (90 mph)
985mb 150° (from the SSE) 76 knots (87 mph)
983mb 150° (from the SSE) 86 knots (99 mph)
963mb 155° (from the SSE) 98 knots (113 mph)
954mb 155° (from the SSE) 91 knots (105 mph)
902mb 180° (from the S) 93 knots (107 mph)
869mb 185° (from the S) 84 knots (97 mph)
850mb 185° (from the S) 83 knots (96 mph)
695mb 215° (from the SW) 80 knots (92 mph)

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Does anyone know if a Cancun radar loop is available?

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

[Ivanhater]

hwrf

[mzcocoapuf]

SO WE SHOULD BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM?

[Brent]

SO WE SHOULD BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM?

Where are you?

[cycloneye]

SO WE SHOULD BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM?

For the second time dont post in caps.