ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[HURAKAN]

468
URNT15 KNHC 081751
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 20 20091108
174330 2021N 08443W 6956 03178 0070 +090 +044 216031 032 033 000 00
174400 2021N 08443W 6956 03178 0073 +090 +045 220030 031 033 000 03
174430 2018N 08441W 6955 03189 0083 +090 +046 218027 027 999 999 03
174500 2017N 08442W 6957 03195 0091 +088 +048 219028 030 999 999 03
174530 2017N 08440W 6961 03192 0084 +089 +051 210029 030 999 999 03
174600 2019N 08441W 6978 03151 0074 +090 +054 212026 027 032 001 03
174630 2021N 08443W 6957 03178 0068 +090 +055 211027 027 033 001 00
174700 2022N 08444W 6961 03173 0064 +094 +054 206028 028 033 000 00
174730 2024N 08446W 6961 03173 0058 +098 +052 209028 028 033 000 00
174800 2025N 08447W 6963 03169 0066 +092 +051 214027 027 033 000 00
174830 2027N 08449W 6957 03173 0067 +089 +051 211028 029 033 000 00
174900 2028N 08450W 6963 03169 0071 +085 +051 207027 028 033 000 00
174930 2030N 08452W 6959 03170 0070 +087 +049 210029 030 034 000 00
175000 2031N 08453W 6958 03174 0066 +090 +045 212029 030 034 000 00
175030 2033N 08454W 6961 03167 0067 +089 +042 210030 030 035 001 00
175100 2034N 08456W 6961 03169 0066 +090 +041 207031 032 035 001 00
175130 2036N 08457W 6959 03172 0067 +089 +041 210034 035 036 000 00
175200 2038N 08459W 6964 03162 0065 +090 +040 211034 034 036 000 03
175230 2039N 08500W 6959 03167 0064 +090 +040 215033 034 037 001 00
175300 2041N 08501W 6962 03163 0061 +091 +041 218031 032 039 002 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

SPECIAL ADVISORY.




000
WTNT21 KNHC 081757
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1800 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 86.1W AT 08/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 86.1W AT 08/1800Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 85.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...135NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 86.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Thunder44]

Special Advisory just issued. Ida now at Cat 2 with 85kt winds. Hurricane Watches extended further east.

[PTPatrick]

yeah...seems like the spread is still pretty much un changed...we have Buras to Ft Walton as the spread for "landfall". Although, I think it a plaquemines parish landfall happens it will just be the first one on the way to Mobile. I have trouble seeing this getting in over the Hancock/harrison County areas of Mississippi seeing as how all the models want to shoot it east at the last minute. Not saying its out of the question and my opinion is by no means official...but At this point "final landfall" would not appear likely west of Jackson Co MS, and its looking like that is even less likely. I think the NAM is the only one showing a true MS landfall right now.

[cycloneye]

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Special advisory discussion

HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO EXTEND THE HURRICANE WATCH
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
REGULAR ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT BASED ON
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT JUST PENETRATED THE CENTER.

THIS ADVISORY REPLACES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
1800 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1800Z 21.7N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO EXTEND THE HURRICANE WATCH
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
REGULAR ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT BASED ON
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT JUST PENETRATED THE CENTER.

THIS ADVISORY REPLACES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
1800 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1800Z 21.7N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxman57]

As they said, no track changes on the advisory, but I do expect to see the track change on the 21Z advisory. Probably a bit faster and more NE movement after landfall tomorrow night.

[Ivanhater]

There is the Hurricane watch. I expect it to go to a Hurricane warning late tonight

[HURAKAN]

804
URNT15 KNHC 081801
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 21 20091108
175330 2042N 08503W 6959 03166 0059 +093 +041 220031 032 042 005 03
175400 2044N 08504W 6958 03167 0063 +088 +041 208036 037 039 003 00
175430 2046N 08505W 6961 03162 0067 +085 +042 208038 038 033 000 00
175500 2047N 08507W 6960 03165 0066 +085 +042 211036 038 036 000 03
175530 2049N 08508W 6965 03151 0064 +085 +041 216037 038 036 000 00
175600 2051N 08509W 6961 03158 0061 +086 +040 213038 038 036 000 00
175630 2053N 08510W 6960 03160 0061 +086 +041 211035 036 037 003 03
175700 2055N 08511W 6976 03144 0055 +092 +042 210036 038 037 004 00
175730 2056N 08512W 6962 03158 0053 +091 +042 207034 034 039 005 03
175800 2058N 08513W 6954 03164 0050 +090 +042 210036 037 037 004 00
175830 2059N 08515W 6958 03157 0056 +084 +042 208037 038 038 005 00
175900 2100N 08516W 6966 03145 0048 +091 +041 208041 043 038 001 00
175930 2102N 08518W 6959 03154 0045 +092 +038 211042 043 037 000 03
180000 2103N 08519W 6958 03154 0047 +089 +038 211039 041 036 001 00
180030 2105N 08520W 6958 03153 0040 +093 +037 212042 043 036 000 00
180100 2106N 08522W 6959 03151 0038 +095 +037 209043 044 037 001 00
180130 2107N 08523W 6959 03147 0034 +097 +037 207045 045 038 000 00
180200 2109N 08524W 6963 03142 0031 +100 +038 206045 046 038 000 00
180230 2110N 08526W 6960 03143 0028 +098 +039 207044 045 038 000 00
180300 2112N 08527W 6955 03149 0025 +099 +040 208044 045 041 001 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

I am surprised they did not bump up the intensity forecast. Same intensity for the next 24 hours? Not likely. Ida is still strengthening out there.

[Rainband]

looks like a real squeeze play going on if you look at the water vapor loop. Interesting

[Ivanhater]

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, I believe the maximum intensity this system will reach is 110 mph based on satellite imagery, pressure drops, still very warm SSTs and shear which seems to me that it has let up some. They will likely bump up the forecast intensity on the next advisory.

[Sanibel]

I am surprised they did not bump up the intensity forecast. Same intensity for the next 24 hours? Not likely. Ida is still strengthening out there.

Even though NHC is conservative I don't think it will get above 90KTS because of conditions.

[nashrobertsx]

I was hoping some folks could help me figure out the real issue with determining landfall and that is the race between the trough now over new mexico and getting into texas and IDA. The trough is over 1000 miles away and only seems to be moving at 20 mph. Meanwhile Ida is only 600 miles south of NOLA and moving at 10-12 mph and forecasted to pick up its forward speed. So when and where will the trough pick IDA up?

[Sabanic]

Right in the backyard there . . . .

[brunota2003]

I smell a troll...no you shouldnt be 'overly concerned'...certainly worthy of keeping an eye on, but not chicken little style.