ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[WindRunner]

Pressure looks like 973mb with drop. 6kt sfc wind in the drop

Errr...the dropsonde hasn't come in yet...where are you getting this from?

[Recurve]

Goodness, hate to state the obvious, but not another hit for Bay St. Louis - Biloxi area. Not that anybody needs it, but there again??! At least it appears the center will be to the east according to NHC forecast, so winds should be offshore, but still.

The forecast of a turn before land disappeared last night -- all because of expected faster forward speed not allowing the front time to advance far enough to meet it offshore?

[deltadog03]

In GE I see an extrap 973.3mb in a 6kt wind. Am I seeing something wrong? If I am, I'm sorry

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it me, or is Ida moving more NNW than NW now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

210
NOUS42 KNHC 081500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST SUN 08 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-164

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IDA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 09/1800Z,10/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0711A IDA
C. 09/1630Z
D. 26.9N 88.5W
E. 09/1700Z TO 10/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 10/0300Z,0600Z,0900Z
B. AFXXX 0811A IDA
C. 10/0045Z
D. 28.6N 88.3W
E. 10/0200Z TO 10/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: P-3 RESEARCH CONTINUING EVERY 12 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081831
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 24 20091108
182330 2201N 08552W 6974 03045 9966 +074 +040 138077 080 075 015 00
182400 2202N 08551W 6962 03067 9965 +082 +034 140078 081 074 016 00
182430 2204N 08549W 6932 03110 9985 +070 +030 145081 085 067 026 00
182500 2205N 08548W 6970 03066 9991 +069 +026 149082 085 065 026 00
182530 2206N 08547W 6963 03077 0002 +066 +024 142079 083 064 025 00
182600 2207N 08545W 6961 03090 0012 +064 +021 143073 074 068 013 00
182630 2209N 08544W 6963 03094 0014 +068 +019 145070 072 066 008 00
182700 2210N 08543W 6966 03099 0000 +088 +016 144067 068 065 005 00
182730 2211N 08541W 6958 03112 0022 +075 +015 142064 066 062 004 00
182800 2212N 08540W 6962 03114 0022 +080 +015 142062 062 060 002 00
182830 2213N 08538W 6961 03121 0023 +083 +015 142061 062 058 002 00
182900 2215N 08537W 6962 03124 0024 +085 +016 142061 062 058 002 00
182930 2216N 08536W 6959 03126 0034 +079 +018 145060 061 058 003 00
183000 2217N 08534W 6969 03117 0040 +075 +021 147063 066 057 006 00
183030 2218N 08533W 6965 03123 0051 +069 +023 144058 061 057 011 00
183100 2220N 08531W 6963 03124 0052 +066 +023 146055 058 059 012 00
183130 2221N 08530W 6953 03134 0054 +065 +022 140051 052 060 018 00
183200 2222N 08529W 6970 03116 0059 +059 +021 132051 052 059 021 00
183230 2223N 08527W 6961 03131 0067 +057 +019 134053 055 058 021 00
183300 2224N 08526W 6945 03154 0070 +057 +017 133054 056 056 019 00
$$
;

[WindRunner]

In GE I see an extrap 973.3mb in a 6kt wind. Am I seeing something wrong? If I am, I'm sorry

Oh yeah, those are just the extrapolated pressures from flight level though. It actually goes down to 971.8mb with 22kts, but remember the winds reported with the extrapolated pressures are FL winds - not necessarily representative of the sfc wind pattern, especially as this storm has a history of being slightly tilted with height.

This is the line with the lowest pressure...

181830 2149N 08605W 6965 02954 9718 +188 +094 132016 022 041 000 00

[Rainband]

Ivan,look at this loop that 12z UKMET has.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

i dont like that loop

[HURAKAN]

[deltadog03]

Got it...ok Thank you! I learn something new everyday!

[PTPatrick]

Yeah its pretty nuts how fast this all developed. I mean at this point most folks in that area are barely tuned in and the weather will go downhill pretty quick tomorrow. Folks will have a narrow window in the morning to batten down if they dont start today.

[mzcocoapuf]

sorry bout the caps my intention was not to yell

[Duddy]

sorry bout the caps my intention was not to yell

it's ok

[brunota2003]

Got it...ok Thank you! I learn something new everyday!

Earlier the pressure got down to 975 on the FL, but the vdm read 978...so I'm thinking this one will be ~975.

[Rainband]

sorry bout the caps my intention was not to yell

It's all good thanks for the apology

[JonathanBelles]

Ivan,look at this loop that 12z UKMET has.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

i dont like that loop

Around and around and around we go! lol Seems like a 'for entertainment only' run, and it certainly was entertaining.

[brunota2003]

Or it could come back as 978 again

000
URNT12 KNHC 081837
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/18:16:40Z
B. 21 deg 45 min N
086 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2916 m
D. 61 kt
E. 123 deg 16 nm
F. 196 deg 87 kt
G. 116 deg 10 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 11 C / 3066 m
J. 19 C / 3052 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:21:00Z
;


Notice this time the eye is circular

[deltadog03]

Thanks! I guess the message is this is still strengthening.

[WindRunner]

Pressures still falling fairly quickly, I would think this has at least another 10kts of wind strength to catch up with. 971hPa was the extrapolated lowest pressure on the most recent pass...will see how well it verifies when the dropsonde comes out (hopefully in next 10-15 mins or so?)

[deltadog03]

I want to see those winds in the SW quad.