ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Rainband]

Is it me, or is Ida moving more NNW than NW now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

seems to be just a wobble time will tell

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 081841
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 25 20091108
183330 2226N 08525W 6974 03120 0068 +060 +016 135053 055 055 019 00
183400 2227N 08523W 6960 03138 0075 +056 +014 135048 049 053 015 00
183430 2228N 08522W 6960 03141 0069 +063 +013 135048 048 051 012 00
183500 2229N 08521W 6961 03141 0076 +060 +012 135048 049 051 008 00
183530 2230N 08519W 6955 03149 0067 +067 +011 135047 048 049 007 00
183600 2231N 08518W 6959 03141 0059 +075 +011 132048 048 046 006 00
183630 2233N 08517W 6955 03149 0054 +078 +012 132046 048 047 005 00
183700 2234N 08515W 6963 03139 0060 +074 +013 133049 049 046 005 00
183730 2235N 08514W 6962 03142 0059 +076 +014 136048 049 046 005 00
183800 2236N 08512W 6957 03146 0056 +078 +015 135047 047 045 004 00
183830 2237N 08511W 6963 03141 0057 +080 +016 134047 048 048 003 00
183900 2239N 08510W 6962 03145 0056 +080 +018 137048 049 045 002 00
183930 2240N 08508W 6956 03154 0058 +080 +019 140047 047 045 002 00
184000 2241N 08507W 6963 03145 0059 +080 +021 140048 048 045 002 00
184030 2242N 08506W 6958 03152 0056 +082 +023 141047 048 045 003 00
184100 2243N 08504W 6962 03147 0056 +084 +026 143048 049 047 004 00
184130 2245N 08503W 6961 03147 0062 +077 +029 143050 051 047 006 00
184200 2246N 08501W 6961 03150 0067 +074 +030 140052 053 046 008 00
184230 2247N 08500W 6959 03154 0077 +067 +031 136050 052 046 010 00
184300 2248N 08459W 6960 03152 0086 +060 +030 141048 048 046 012 00
$$
;

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Got a question that maybe someone can help me out with. Was listening to a radio station out of new orleans, primarily talking about Grand Isle. Anyway said the closet approach by Ida would be late Monday night, possibly grazing lower plaquemines parish. The front is not supposed make it into south LA until sometime late tuesday at its current speed. Question is, is it possible if Ida moves a little quicker or the front slows just a little is it possible she could make landfall further to the west before she turns to the NE Possibly a direct landfall in SE LA?

[WindRunner]

Got it...ok Thank you! I learn something new everyday!

Earlier the pressure got down to 975 on the FL, but the vdm read 978...so I'm thinking this one will be ~975.

I'm waiting for the dropsonde to come in before saying for sure...it will obviously read 978mb, but I'm betting it has at least 20kts of wind on it, which the VDM does not adjust for, though NHC will. We shall see, as OB 8 is still floating in cyber-space...or maybe hurricane-space, depending on how slow they're being on the aircraft

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 081837
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/18:16:40Z
B. 21 deg 45 min N
086 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2916 m
D. 61 kt
E. 123 deg 16 nm
F. 196 deg 87 kt
G. 116 deg 10 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 11 C / 3066 m
J. 19 C / 3052 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:21:00Z
;
Eye is 18 miles in diameter and closed.

[dixiebreeze]

Hi Rainband. From watching the outflow from Ida, I don't believe she will go as far west as forecast right now.

[nashrobertsx]

I was hoping some folks could help me figure out the real issue with determining landfall and that is the race between the trough now over new mexico and getting into texas and IDA. The trough is over 1000 miles away and only seems to be moving at 20 mph. Meanwhile Ida is only 600 miles south of NOLA and moving at 10-12 mph and forecasted to pick up its forward speed. So when and where will the trough pick IDA up?

[HURAKAN]

[deltadog03]

Notice how the T and Td are now only 2 degrees apart, last vdm i think they were 4. That bodes well for strengthening as well. I did notice it had a bit of dry air around before, but it seems it has pushed that out for now.

[HURAKAN]

There's the heart again!!

[Rainband]

Hi Rainband. From watching the outflow from Ida, I don't believe she will go as far west as forecast right now.

no matter what happens interesting weather for the next few days

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[deltadog03]

Nice radar shot!! Looks like the reds and yellows are starting to wrap all around the ring of the eyewall

[Frank2]

Approximately 250 folks on this site right now - 10 days ago I'd have said this wouldn't happen until next season...

That's what makes life exciting - you never know from one day to the next...

Back to "Ida know"...

LOL

[WindRunner]

We have a dropsonde...but it's not the one from the eye, it's from the eyewall.

UZNT13 KNHC 081848
XXAA 58187 99217 70860 08116 99980 26216 12580 00676 ///// /////
92511 22409 14571 85252 24258 16576 70924 13056 19576 88999 77999
31313 09608 81813
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 10
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2179N08598W 1819 AEV 20801 DLM WND 17072 97
9696 WL150 12578 082 REL 2169N08595W 181357 SPG 2179N08597W 18191
3 =
XXBB 58188 99217 70860 08116 00980 26216 11899 21407 22883 23850
33850 24258 44753 18457 55716 14633 66696 12457
21212 00980 12580 11977 12581 22970 12576 33963 13581 44955 13574
55948 14080 66940 14072 77927 14572 88905 15559 99888 16062 11877
15573 22862 16071 33850 16576 44792 18087 55737 18584 66707 20576
77696 19076
31313 09608 81813
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 10
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2179N08598W 1819 AEV 20801 DLM WND 17072 97
9696 WL150 12578 082 REL 2169N08595W 181357 SPG 2179N08597W 18191
3 =
;


980mb, 80kt winds...that screams lower than 978mb to me!

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 081849
XXAA 58187 99218 70861 08116 99978 27610 12015 00697 ///// /////
92496 24202 13013 85236 21217 14513 70920 18461 33003 88999 77999
31313 09608 81816
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 2176N08612W 1820 MBL WND 13015 AEV 20801 DLM WND 15
008 977697 WL150 13515 082 REL 2175N08611W 181637 SPG 2176N08611W
182043 =
XXBB 58188 99218 70861 08116 00978 27610 11850 21217 22798 20850
33774 22261 44708 19661 55697 18060
21212 00978 12015 11971 13514 22959 13017 33904 12012 44888 14513
55870 13509 66850 14513 77843 16015 88833 14513 99797 17013 11697
36003
31313 09608 81816
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 2176N08612W 1820 MBL WND 13015 AEV 20801 DLM WND 15
008 977697 WL150 13515 082 REL 2175N08611W 181637 SPG 2176N08611W
182043 =
;

[srainhoutx]

I do not think anyone can give you a definative answer. Guidance has had a very difficult time with all the "players" involved. We will just have to see how it unfolds, IMHO.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 081851
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 26 20091108
184330 2249N 08457W 6966 03144 0088 +060 +027 142047 049 046 013 00
184400 2251N 08456W 6960 03155 0090 +059 +025 145046 047 044 011 00
184430 2252N 08454W 6968 03147 0093 +059 +023 143046 047 044 009 00
184500 2253N 08453W 6954 03164 0088 +062 +021 145048 049 046 008 00
184530 2254N 08452W 6960 03156 0083 +068 +020 142049 049 046 005 00
184600 2256N 08450W 6963 03151 0079 +072 +019 143048 048 046 006 00
184630 2257N 08449W 6958 03160 0076 +075 +018 143048 049 046 006 00
184700 2258N 08447W 6963 03155 0071 +079 +019 141050 051 044 003 00
184730 2259N 08446W 6957 03165 0071 +080 +019 143048 049 044 004 00
184800 2301N 08444W 6963 03159 0077 +076 +021 142044 046 044 004 00
184830 2302N 08443W 6962 03162 0080 +076 +023 136042 043 043 002 03
184900 2303N 08443W 6946 03183 0087 +075 +026 126042 044 999 999 03
184930 2305N 08444W 6964 03158 0082 +075 +029 119043 044 044 001 03
185000 2305N 08447W 6963 03159 0083 +071 +031 115042 043 044 002 03
185030 2305N 08449W 6961 03160 0086 +070 +032 114043 044 046 003 00
185100 2305N 08451W 6961 03162 0091 +064 +033 116043 044 046 004 00
185130 2305N 08453W 6960 03161 0091 +064 +031 120043 044 046 005 00
185200 2306N 08456W 6955 03165 0084 +069 +030 122042 043 046 001 00
185230 2306N 08458W 6959 03160 0073 +078 +028 124041 042 045 001 00
185300 2306N 08500W 6959 03160 0071 +079 +029 127041 041 046 001 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

813
UZNT13 KNHC 081849
XXAA 58187 99218 70861 08116 99978 27610 12015 00697 ///// /////
92496 24202 13013 85236 21217 14513 70920 18461 33003 88999 77999
31313 09608 81816
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 2176N08612W 1820 MBL WND 13015 AEV 20801 DLM WND 15
008 977697 WL150 13515 082 REL 2175N08611W 181637 SPG 2176N08611W
182043 =
XXBB 58188 99218 70861 08116 00978 27610 11850 21217 22798 20850
33774 22261 44708 19661 55697 18060
21212 00978 12015 11971 13514 22959 13017 33904 12012 44888 14513
55870 13509 66850 14513 77843 16015 88833 14513 99797 17013 11697
36003
31313 09608 81816
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 2176N08612W 1820 MBL WND 13015 AEV 20801 DLM WND 15
008 977697 WL150 13515 082 REL 2175N08611W 181637 SPG 2176N08611W
182043 =
;


978 mb but the winds were 15 knots, which means it didn't hit the center.

[HURAKAN]

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 18:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 11

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 8th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 21.8N 86.1W (View map)
Location: 65 miles (105 km) to the NE (46°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
978mb (28.88 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 120° (from the ESE) 15 knots (17 mph)
1000mb -197m (-646 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 496m (1,627 ft) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 130° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
850mb 1,236m (4,055 ft) 21.2°C (70.2°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F) 145° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
700mb 2,920m (9,580 ft) 18.4°C (65.1°F) Approximately 7°C (45°F) 330° (from the NNW) 3 knots (3 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 18:16Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 21.76N 86.12W
Splash Time: 18:20Z

Release Location: 21.75N 86.11W (View map)
Release Time: 18:16:37Z

Splash Location: 21.76N 86.11W (View map)
Splash Time: 18:20:43Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 977mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20801

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
978mb (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 26.6°C (79.9°F)
850mb 21.2°C (70.2°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F)
798mb 20.8°C (69.4°F) Approximately 16°C (61°F)
774mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F)
708mb 19.6°C (67.3°F) Approximately 9°C (48°F)
697mb 18.0°C (64.4°F) Approximately 8°C (46°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
978mb (Surface) 120° (from the ESE) 15 knots (17 mph)
971mb 135° (from the SE) 14 knots (16 mph)
959mb 130° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
904mb 120° (from the ESE) 12 knots (14 mph)
888mb 145° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
870mb 135° (from the SE) 9 knots (10 mph)
850mb 145° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
843mb 160° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph)
833mb 145° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
797mb 170° (from the S) 13 knots (15 mph)
697mb 360° (from the N) 3 knots (3 mph)

[brunota2003]

so the true pressure is 977ish? it's every 10 knots, take a millibar off