ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

After that last dropsonde what is the real lowest pressure?

[Rainband]

Approximately 225 folks on this site right now - 10 days ago I'd have said this wouldn't happen until next season...

That's what makes life exciting - you never know from one day to the next...

Back to "Ida know"...

LOL

exactly just goes to show you mother nature is in control and can always throw a curve ball into the mix. That's why we love the tropics

[deltadog03]

here is the 300mb chart right now! This is why I called for a higher storm at landfall....Look at the jetstreak coming in!! VERY VERY FAVORABLE for outflow and upper DIV.

[WindRunner]

so the true pressure is 977ish? it's every 10 knots, take a millibar off

At least. In theory, you could take the 980mb/80kts reading and turn it into 972mb (almost exactly what was extrapolated!), but typically that isn't done with drops from the eyewall. Likely, NHC would go with this as 977...or maybe 976 if they're assuming it is continuing to strengthen.

[CrazyC83]

Using the eyewall dropsonde, I would estimate the actual pressure to be 972mb.

[Evil Jeremy]

If Ida is going to RI, it would be now. at the end of the day, a Cat 3 would not be shocking.

[brunota2003]

Perhaps the lower pressure has not worked down to the surface yet?

[HURAKAN]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I was hoping some folks could help me figure out the real issue with determining landfall and that is the race between the trough now over new mexico and getting into texas and IDA. The trough is over 1000 miles away and only seems to be moving at 20 mph. Meanwhile Ida is only 600 miles south of NOLA and moving at 10-12 mph and forecasted to pick up its forward speed. So when and where will the trough pick IDA up?

Good question nash. Posted a similar question in the "IDA" thread a little while ago. Without reading to much into your question I assume you are thinking if Ida could come a little further west before making landfall. Which is what I asked but have not yet got any answers. IMO I think this could make a Katrina location landfall of course a whole lot weaker.

[WindRunner]

here is the 300mb chart right now! This is why I called for a higher storm at landfall....Look at the jetstreak coming in!! VERY VERY FAVORABLE for outflow and upper DIV.

And that's why you see the developing frontal wave in the western GoM right now...it's a nice exposed LLC with a little convective burst on it. Unfortunately, it's on the frontal zone associated with that jet streak...

[KWT]

Well the eyewall looks like its finally closed and whilst heat content decreases from now on the upper conditions aren't too bad at all. I don't think its gonig to get much stronger (could get to 90-95kts i suppose!) but its more likely to hold for a while as a hurricane, could well have a landfalling hurricane afterall...

[CrazyC83]

Could an analog be Juan of 1985, since it appears that meandering in the Gulf Coast is possible...

[cape_escape]

Hi everyone, I've been a member of S2K for about 5 years now, and have been watching the board all season. I live inCape Coral Florida, but my concern with this system is that my son is now living in Lake Charles La, and I'm not familar with that area, is there anyone on here who is near there and can tell me perhaps what county that is, or how close to the cone? he just turned 18 and has never been away from me, and has no phone available to him at the moment...any help would be appreciated!

[jconsor]

Latest dropsonde reported 978 mb again, but the winds aloft were 15-20 kt (as opposed to 5-10 kt on the previous dropsonde) so it may not have quite hit the center.

After that last dropsonde what is the real lowest pressure?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081901
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 27 20091108
185330 2306N 08502W 6961 03161 0071 +080 +031 130037 038 046 001 00
185400 2306N 08505W 6952 03168 0070 +077 +033 127037 038 045 000 03
185430 2307N 08507W 6963 03155 0069 +080 +036 131037 038 046 000 00
185500 2307N 08509W 6958 03160 0067 +080 +038 131039 040 046 001 00
185530 2307N 08512W 6960 03159 0069 +078 +039 130041 042 047 000 03
185600 2307N 08514W 6959 03157 0073 +074 +040 129043 043 048 000 00
185630 2308N 08517W 6956 03166 0066 +079 +040 125042 043 047 000 00
185700 2308N 08519W 6961 03154 0063 +080 +041 123044 045 047 000 00
185730 2308N 08522W 6960 03156 0064 +080 +042 122046 047 047 001 00
185800 2308N 08524W 6958 03157 0068 +075 +044 121047 047 045 003 00
185830 2309N 08527W 6961 03151 0068 +075 +044 118047 048 045 002 00
185900 2309N 08529W 6962 03152 0066 +078 +043 117049 050 043 003 00
185930 2309N 08532W 6958 03159 0070 +073 +042 116047 049 044 002 00
190000 2309N 08534W 6960 03154 0064 +076 +041 119047 047 044 003 00
190030 2310N 08536W 6956 03161 0069 +075 +041 118048 049 045 003 00
190100 2310N 08539W 6959 03160 0065 +080 +041 117048 048 044 004 00
190130 2310N 08541W 6965 03148 0065 +076 +041 119045 047 045 003 00
190200 2310N 08544W 6957 03156 0066 +075 +040 118046 047 046 003 00
190230 2310N 08546W 6963 03151 0070 +074 +040 116044 046 048 003 00
190300 2311N 08549W 6963 03153 0074 +070 +039 117042 044 047 004 00
$$
;

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Got a question that maybe someone can help me out with. Was listening to a radio station out of new orleans, primarily talking about Grand Isle. Anyway said the closet approach by Ida would be late Monday night, possibly grazing lower plaquemines parish. The front is not supposed make it into south LA until sometime late tuesday at its current speed. Question is, is it possible if Ida moves a little quicker or the front slows just a little is it possible she could make landfall further to the west before she turns to the NE Possibly a direct landfall in SE LA?

Anyone?

[PTPatrick]

Juan and Kate are probably the latest storms in the year to effect the area. Kate had a big kicker...Juan didnt.

[jaxfladude]

Now that track puts me into the mix at the end of Ida's track, as of this post' s time(tropical/transitioning into/already extra-tropical ).
Still time for all things to change, am I right?

[CrazyC83]

Now that track puts me into the mix at the end of Ida's track as a system(tropical/transitioning into/already extra-tropical ).
Still time for all things to change, am I right?

I would think it would be extratropical at that point. But don't count on a 30 kt system, I would guess with the outside energy it could still be a solid TS-strength (maybe near hurricane-strength) system.

[WindRunner]

Hi everyone, I've been a member of S2K for about 5 years now, and have been watching the board all season. I live inCape Coral Florida, but my concern with this system is that my son is now living in Lake Charles La, and I'm not familar with that area, is there anyone on here who is near there and can tell me perhaps what county that is, or how close to the cone? he just turned 18 and has never been away from me, and has no phone available to him at the moment...any help would be appreciated!

Lake Charles is in the far southwest portion of the state. Assuming this forecast holds, he'll see more weather from the cold front going through than he will from Ida. Go to his NWS office at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/ to stay up to date on how the forecast evolves.