GOM: INVEST 90L

[bahamaswx]

Rain all around for days, but not a drop.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Pretty impressive wind report out of Sanford, FL tonight...

Orlando / Sanford Airport
Lat: 28.78 Lon: -81.24 Elev: 55
Last Update on May 20, 12:53 am EDT

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy

70 °F
(21 °C)
Humidity: 93 %
Wind Speed: E 30 G 54 MPH
Barometer: 29.85" (1010.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 68 °F (20 °C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Gusting up to 50mph+ with some of the squalls inland!

[szundi]

Hi Everybody,

Greetings from soggy Melbourne, FL.

Haven't logged on since last Nov. and thought I had a few weeks of peace and quiet before I had to use the "H" word.

Fortunately, all the worst winds and tornadic activity is north and west of me but my NOAA radio keeps going off.

I took advantage of a break in the rain to drag my younger dog outside for a quick visit.

So far, the radar looks like most of the activity will stay north and west but I don't think I'll get much sleep tonight.

Sort of reminds me of TS Fay from last year. Looks like this one is going to hang around for a few days as well.

Latest report on TV was 6,000 people in central FL w/o power--from FL Power & Light.

Maybe I can get a few winks tonight if things stay calm over my head.

szundi

[bahamaswx]

Is there enough energy down by the Turks to form some sort of cut-off low?

[Evil Jeremy]

There is a lot of convection left over from the system, what is going to happen to all that tropical energy?

[boca]

I'm keeping an I on the area by the Turks and Cacos Islands to see where the tropical moisture will end up.

[hurricanefloyd5]

When there's smoke, there's fire

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1135 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ZELLWOOD...WINTER PARK...WINTER
GARDEN...WINDERMERE...PINE HILLS...OCOEE...MAITLAND...LOCKHART...
LAKE APOPKA...FAIRVIEW SHORES...APOPKA...
WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...WEKIVA SPRINGS...
LONGWOOD...LAKE MARY...GOLDENROD...FOREST CITY...CASSELBERRY...
ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

* AT 1134 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
CASSELBERRY...MOVING WEST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...WEKIVA SPRINGS AND FAIRVIEW SHORES BY 1140 PM
EDT...
LOCKHART...WEKIWA SPRINGS STATE PARK...PINE HILLS AND FOREST CITY
BY 1145 PM EDT...
APOPKA BY 1150 PM EDT...
OCOEE BY 1155 PM EDT...
LAKE APOPKA BY MIDNIGHT EDT...

yep...it is crazy here right now in apopka!

That possible tornado passed right over my house late last night.

05/20/2009 1246 am

Sanford, Seminole County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m54.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


Ksfb Airport measured 54 mph.





05/19/2009 1142 PM

Casselberry, Seminole County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


Possible roof damage on Lake Shore drive in
Casselberry... fire crews responding

05/20/2009 0637 am

2 miles W of Azalea Park, Orange County.

Heavy rain m7.35 inch, reported by law enforcement.


7.35 inches of rainfall measured since Monday.





05/19/2009 1150 PM

Apopka, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Tree on a house on Clarcona Road in Apopka

[Aric Dunn]

i Dont think anyone would believe me if i said it ... even if i attempted to prove it.. but im pretty confident its true.. just need to review some more things...

[gatorcane]

I'm keeping an I on the area by the Turks and Cacos Islands to see where the tropical moisture will end up.

The 12Z NAM keeps this moisture around the same area for several days but does not organize it into anything. That seems like a reasonable forecast to me as I see no reason why it would spread west anytime soon with lack of ridging north of the Turks/Caicos. It also stays east and south of Florida so should not significantly impact Florida rain chances at least through the weekend.

By next week though, some if it may start to spread back westward keeping rain chances a bit above climo for next week.

[CaribWx]

I never thought 90L would amount to anything, and did not alert my clients. I do, however, think remnant energy in the region, fed by what I analyze as a TROF extending SSW from the Turks & Caicos area thru the WindwardPassage to S of the Jamaica-Haiti area...we may yet see a LO (probably with Tropical characteristics) form just N or NE of Turks&Caicos about Fri22...and my best guess is it moves ENE along the TROF which extends from the LO in GOMEX to the LO weakening & shifting S-SW from 30N/55W. Any LO that forms N-NE of Turks & Caicos would be "91L", as there would NOT be any continuity of vorticity. My analysis & model support from early this morning follows:

LO 30N/55W continues to weaken, but supports TROF (accompanied by squalls) trailing S-ward from E of LO thru 25N/45W...then WSW thru 21N/55W...21N-23N at 62W...21N-24N at 65W...20N-30N at 70W. W of 70W, TROF merges with another TROF from WindwardPassage thru SE Bahamas, and extends NW in waters N of Bahamas, then W-ward across FL to LO near 27N/83W in E GOMEX.

Fortunately, squalls are collapsing N of DomRep/E of Turks&Caicos, but TROF should persist, and squalls are likely to redevelop. I also think there's some risk for a LO to form somewhere along TROF over the next 2-4 days, and any LO that may form could be Tropical in nature, or could assume some Tropical characteristics over time.

MODELS:
00z UKMet weakens LO near 30N/55W, drifts it SW, then redevelops that LO 25N-30N near 50W over weekend, trailing a possibly-squally TROF SW thru NE Caribbean.
00z Canadian model weakens LO 30N/55W & shifts energy WSW to 27N/60W by Fri22, then develops a new LO just NE of T&C at 23N/70W late Fri22...new LO strengthens, incorporating energy from old LO, and moves ENE near 25N/60W Mon25 & 25N-30N near 52W Tue26, trailing possibly-squally TROF thru NE Caribbean.
06z GFS weakens LO 32N/55W & shifts energy WSW to 27N/60W tomorrow, then develops new LO gradually near or just NE of SE Bahamas Fri22 & Sat23, strengthening it S of Bermuda near 28N/65W Sun24 & Mon25, and 30N/60W Tue26.
00z NOGAPS dissipates LO near 30N/55W & develops new LO SE Bahamas Sat23 & strengthens LO significantly as it moves NE toward Bermuda early next week.
00z Euro shifts weakening LO from 30N/55W to 25N/60W & develops new LO NE of SE Bahamas near 26N/72W Sat23, moves it ENE to 27N/55W Tue26.

Best guess is LO forms near or NE of T&C Fri22 & moves ENE, taking the bulk of squally weather with it...but leaving light wind near Bahamas and some sort of weak TROF near or N of the area.

VESSELS TRANSITING WATERS N OF E CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY.

[margiek]

Pretty impressive wind report out of Sanford, FL tonight...

Orlando / Sanford Airport
Lat: 28.78 Lon: -81.24 Elev: 55
Last Update on May 20, 12:53 am EDT

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy

70 °F
(21 °C)
Humidity: 93 %
Wind Speed: E 30 G 54 MPH
Barometer: 29.85" (1010.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 68 °F (20 °C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Gusting up to 50mph+ with some of the squalls inland!

Not that impressive. It's pretty windy in Minneapolis today: 28mph with gust to 38mph (highest gust so far today at KMSP was 46mph around 1pm).

I was outside at lunch -- beautiful day -- and the wind was also funneling between the buildings. It was definitely trying to blow me around a bit returning to the office at 1pm.

[OpieStorm]

50mph+ gusts can definitely cause some damage.

[Category 5]

Pretty impressive wind report out of Sanford, FL tonight...

Orlando / Sanford Airport
Lat: 28.78 Lon: -81.24 Elev: 55
Last Update on May 20, 12:53 am EDT

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy

70 °F
(21 °C)
Humidity: 93 %
Wind Speed: E 30 G 54 MPH
Barometer: 29.85" (1010.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 68 °F (20 °C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Gusting up to 50mph+ with some of the squalls inland!

Not that impressive. It's pretty windy in Minneapolis today: 28mph with gust to 38mph (highest gust so far today at KMSP was 46mph around 1pm).

I was outside at lunch -- beautiful day -- and the wind was also funneling between the buildings. It was definitely trying to blow me around a bit returning to the office at 1pm.

If i may ask, how are lower "more impressive" readings from Minnesota relevant to this?

[ddad040]

This isnt to bad for an A380.. ORL UUA /OV 30N ORL/TM 2343/FL370/TP A310/TB MOD-SEV/RM NO
STRUCTURAL OR INJURIES...UNABLE TO HOLD ACRFT. ZJX=

[WeatherLovingDoc]

This isnt to bad for an A380.. ORL UUA /OV 30N ORL/TM 2343/FL370/TP A310/TB MOD-SEV/RM NO
STRUCTURAL OR INJURIES...UNABLE TO HOLD ACRFT. ZJX=

Sounds like your plane got knocked around some from moderate to severe turbulence perhaps due to similar mph wind. I take it while piloting an Airbus 310, with less effect presumed on a larger Airbus 380. Can't tell if you loss altitude yet being a safe pilot, you detoured your route. Your passengers thank you and so do we. Pilots deserve our gratitude.

Severe Turbulence: Turbulence that causes large, abrupt changes in altitude and/or attitude. It usually causes large variations in indicated airspeed. Aircraft may be momentarily out of control.
Reaction inside aircraft: Occupants are forced violently against seat belts. Unsecured objects are tossed about. Food service and walking are impossible.

[HURAKAN]

It's back!

[vacanechaser]

was just posted a short time ago...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200905221442
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2009, DB, O, 2009051818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902009
AL, 90, 2009051718, , BEST, 0, 175N, 758W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009051800, , BEST, 0, 189N, 756W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009051806, , BEST, 0, 200N, 756W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009051812, , BEST, 0, 210N, 757W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009051818, , BEST, 0, 219N, 758W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 90, 2009051900, , BEST, 0, 224N, 760W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 90, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2009052112, , BEST, 0, 255N, 863W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009052118, , BEST, 0, 258N, 864W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009052200, , BEST, 0, 260N, 868W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009052206, , BEST, 0, 262N, 874W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009052212, , BEST, 0, 266N, 873W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 300, 125, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[vacanechaser]

thanx for locking/deleting the other post... i did nto see this thread... thanx




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]