ATL : INVEST 93L

[lrak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html after watching all these storms over the years with you guys and gals it would appear from the loop that this would go to Tampico instead of Tampa Bay? Why won't this thing follow the Ull to Mexico under the HP ridge of death. What's going to make it make a hard right turn?

Thanks

lrak AKA karl

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html after watching all these storms over the years with you guys and gals it would appear from the loop that this would go to Tampico instead of Tampa Bay? Why won't this thing follow the Ull to Mexico under the HP ridge of death. What's going to make it make a hard right turn?

Thanks

lrak AKA karl

because it's suppose to get caught up in a trough/front. something like that

[wxman57]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html after watching all these storms over the years with you guys and gals it would appear from the loop that this would go to Tampico instead of Tampa Bay? Why won't this thing follow the Ull to Mexico under the HP ridge of death. What's going to make it make a hard right turn?

Thanks

lrak AKA karl

It's because the ridge doesn't extend far enough eastward (north of 93L) to steer it westward. The loop above shows the trof digging down through Florida now. That's the weakness it'll shoot for. Also, take a look at a surface map showing the westward extent of the Bermuda high - it only extends westward to western Cuba and the FL Keys. The outermost closed isobar around the Bermuda high is a good indicator of where it'll go.

[wxman57]

The wave is sharpening up a little but will be over or near land so a TD probably won't be declared till it gets out in the gulf. The convection is picking up again near the Axis of the wave and you can see some lower cloud movement in the wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov zoomed loop. Looks just like a classic sharpening wave.

Surface obs aren't impressive at all in identifying the wave. E and SE winds along the east coast of the Yucatan, SE winds at the buoy at 20N/80W. Pressures not falling. A TD won't be declared until it acquires an LLC and deep convection over that center. Definitely won't be in the Caribbean. Perhaps in the Gulf But the problem is there just isn't much to focus the convection and get an LLC developing. For now, it's no more than a typical tropical wave. Not deserving of 30-50% shot of development within 48hrs, as some have stated. Maybe 20%.

[xironman]

Black IR close to the area, there is potential here. It keeps coming back again and again. Just not yet.

[cycloneye]

I dont know 57,but its looking a little bit better.What do you think?

[lrak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html after watching all these storms over the years with you guys and gals it would appear from the loop that this would go to Tampico instead of Tampa Bay? Why won't this thing follow the Ull to Mexico under the HP ridge of death. What's going to make it make a hard right turn?

Thanks

lrak AKA karl

It's because the ridge doesn't extend far enough eastward (north of 93L) to steer it westward. The loop above shows the trof digging down through Florida now. That's the weakness it'll shoot for. Also, take a look at a surface map showing the westward extent of the Bermuda high - it only extends westward to western Cuba and the FL Keys. The outermost closed isobar around the Bermuda high is a good indicator of where it'll go.

Oh, thank you very much. I thought the stuff shooting down the East coast would push it West and it would follow the ULL.


http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_vect_300.html
What if it cross over to the BOC will it then go to Mexico?

The west sid of the Yucatan has N winds alrady.

thanks again for your response.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Why won't this thing follow the Ull to Mexico under the HP ridge of death. What's going to make it make a hard right turn?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

That mostly. The HP over TX is in the upper levels.
You can see that clearly here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=

Also look at the streams:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_vect_300.html

Even the wave tracker winds seem to support a gradual turn to FL:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/wavetrakmain.php?&prod=wind&basin=natl&time=

[lrak]

Oh my mistake I'm looking at upper level when I should be looking at lower level...one of these days I'll get that straight.

[thetruesms]

I dont know 57,but its looking a little bit better.What do you think?

[img]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES20312009178bwxVHC.jpg[img]

It seems that there are several things working in this thing's favor, and there's potential there. But the thing that really strikes me - and wxman57 and others do a good job of pointing it out - is that there just isn't any kind of circulation setting up at the lower levels, so all we're left with is a pulsing mass of convection that keeps teasing.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I think about it this way - a developing or compromised storm is not very tall, so any winds to move it around need to be low. A mature storm is nice and tall - and has outflow so any winds moving it should be high up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is intense convection with it- black color on the IR, and a round cluster
shape. I don't see an LLC yet, but the potential
is there.

[lrak]

I think about it this way - a developing or compromised storm is not very tall, so any winds to move it around need to be low. A mature storm is nice and tall - and has outflow so any winds moving it should be high up.

I learning, and thats the way a guy who doesn't follow this stuff everyday will remember weather stuff. Kinda like how I remember how to spell significant "sign" "if" "i" "cant"

thank you

[lrak]

But wait a minute this storm isn't tall or formed up, are the models anticipating a tall storm really fast? Otherwise the low level winds are tracking West to Mexico?

[Dean4Storms]

It does have "that look" late this afternoon with the split convection burst, it just has to persist overnight.

[Nederlander]

Despite lacking a LLC... The circular formation looks more impressive today... Probably just the mid an upper levels rotating but.. Just an observation from vis imagery

[KWT]

The thing reminds me somewhat od Dolly when when it was trying to form severa times in the Caribbean. Convection kept plusing up but without a circulation it just waxed and waned and made no real progress for several days.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

But wait a minute this storm isn't tall or formed up, are the models anticipating a tall storm really fast? Otherwise the low level winds are tracking West to Mexico?

Thats where the question mark is. Certainly seems to have some LL winds heading smack into the yucatan. I noticed yesterday that the convection was almost south of cuba, now today its huging the coast again.

[Aric Dunn]

[cycloneye]

The upper low in the Bay of Campeche is moving more slowly to the NW.