ATL: INVEST (97L)

[Aric Dunn]

decided to calculate its speed and time of avrival for the shear to increase..

so from the 2 best track positions and the time it took to move between them,
it is moving at 19.8 mph and the shear starts at about 60 west which is about 600 miles from current location. which means it has about 30 hours till the shear increases ... but if it stays west the whole way the shear will only increase to about 15kts or so. if it moves farther north than it is now, it will hit 20 to 25kt .. that increased shear time ( for both scenarios) would approximately last according to the shear forecast to about 65 west which would give it about 20 hours of shear over 15 kts according to the present west motion if it stays that course and the current shear and shear forecast.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak

19/1745 UTC 12.2N 52.1W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Blown Away]

SSD Dvorak

19/1745 UTC 12.2N 52.1W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Wow, that's almost dead center under the ball of convection.

[windycity]

Seems to be the little wave that could! The warmer SST's ,and lessening of shear seem to help our (maybe) first named storm.

[Aric Dunn]

all we need now .. is the surface low to completely close off .. if it were to slow down a little that would have faster..

[Ivanhater]

Looking good for now

[BigA]

It it stays in that west track south of 15N it may avoid the worst of the shear.

Looking at the shear maps, in 48 hours the shear will be <15 kts all over the NE Caribbean. In 48 hours the shear in the Bahama area will be near 20 kts but it will be on a decreasing trend. So I'm not so sure it has to stay below 15N to survive. I think it's going to move very close to Hispanola. JMHO.

Could you post a link to these shear maps? Most appreciated.

[Blown Away]

decided to calculate its speed and time of avrival for the shear to increase..

so from the 2 best track positions and the time it took to move between them,
it is moving at 19.8 mph and the shear starts at about 60 west which is about 600 miles from current location. which means it has about 30 hours till the shear increases ... but if it stays west the whole way the shear will only increase to about 15kts or so. if it moves farther north than it is now, it will hit 20 to 25kt .. that increased shear time ( for both scenarios) would approximately last according to the shear forecast to about 65 west which would give it about 20 hours of shear over 15 kts according to the present west motion if it stays that course and the current shear and shear forecast.

PR is the cutoff, as long as 97L stays S of PR within 48 hours the shear will be below 15 kt. Even after 48 hours the intense shear we are seeing now N of 20N is on a steady decrease. I think 97L has a decent environment as long as it does not move N of the islands within the next 48 hours.

[wxman57]

wxman57, we need you to schedule vacation for tomorrow...that is just what this thing needs to get going!

Nope, work week starts tomorrow. One negative against development. Has some impressive mid-level spin now. I'm running a plot to check surface obs. I suspect there's nothing at the surface yet.

No, the only obs I can find are just north of the disturbance - east at 20 kts and 1013.8mb. Pressure at that buoy fell 1mb the past few hours as the wave approaches.

[Blown Away]

It it stays in that west track south of 15N it may avoid the worst of the shear.

Looking at the shear maps, in 48 hours the shear will be <15 kts all over the NE Caribbean. In 48 hours the shear in the Bahama area will be near 20 kts but it will be on a decreasing trend. So I'm not so sure it has to stay below 15N to survive. I think it's going to move very close to Hispanola. JMHO.

Could you post a link to these shear maps? Most appreciated.

http://www.atwc.org/p5.php

Pick Shear Maps:

[Aric Dunn]

wxman57, we need you to schedule vacation for tomorrow...that is just what this thing needs to get going!

Nope, work week starts tomorrow. One negative against development. Has some impressive mid-level spin now. I'm running a plot to check surface obs. I suspect there's nothing at the surface yet.

unless you find a ship near by the buoys are all too far to give any conclusive information being that the system is so small .. this http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040 is the closest one and is still outside the convection we will have to wait till it hits the other buoys later tonight, it should go over a couple

[Derek Ortt]

floater has been added

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

labeled as Invest 04

[Aric Dunn]

wxman57, we need you to schedule vacation for tomorrow...that is just what this thing needs to get going!

Nope, work week starts tomorrow. One negative against development. Has some impressive mid-level spin now. I'm running a plot to check surface obs. I suspect there's nothing at the surface yet.

unless you find a ship near by the buoys are all too far to give any conclusive information being that the system is so small .. this http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040 is the closest one and is still outside the convection we will have to wait till it hits the other buoys later tonight, it should go over a couple

that buoy is 160 miles from the best track center...

[Ed Mahmoud]

No GFDL run it would seem. Maybe a sign NHC isn't too concerned (would match "code yellow").

4 days, a noticeable wave on Euro in Bahamas, day 5, a non-tropical looking low off the East Coast. Can't tell if one leads to the other.

No development on NoGaps.

[Aric Dunn]

No GFDL run it would seem. Maybe a sign NHC isn't too concerned (would match "code yellow").

4 days, a noticeable wave on Euro in Bahamas, day 5, a non-tropical looking low off the East Coast. Can't tell if one leads to the other.

No development on NoGaps.

has not been enough time for the gfdl or hwrf to run.. probably be out at the 00z

[Macrocane]

I think that if the disturbance survives the increasing shea and enters the Caribbean then it will have a chance to develop, if it recurves before entering the caribbean and goes northwest the chances are lower.

[Ivanhater]

Expanding nicely on the northern side

[Sanibel]

The left models have been more accurate so far.

[Sanibel]

The little slot of SAL dry air is responsible for inswirling slot.

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Ivanhater, improving structure, nice appearence, and convection is expanding tremendously on the nw quadrant http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg