WTPN34 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 137.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 137.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.5N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.5N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.8N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 39.5N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 46.4N 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 136.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 041347Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SUPER TYPHOON WITH A WELL-
DEFINED, 24 NM EYE OUTLINED BY A SOLID RING OF INTENSE CONVECTION
FIRING WITHIN THE EYE WALL. STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ESPECIALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS SHOW A SLIGHT
ASYMMETRY TO THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED SSMI/ AMSRE
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM CIMMS. STY 20W
CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE LATEST DVORAK
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE LAST 12
HOURS AT 7.0 (140 KNOTS). AS STY 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, IT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A
STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND JET MAX CURRENTLY OVER JAPAN WILL
ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF STY 20W AND ALLOW FOR RECURVATURE.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GRADUALLY POLEWARD PRIOR TO RECURVATURE NEAR
36 HOURS. AFTER STY 20W ROUNDS THE STR AROUND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL ACCELERATE RAPIDLY INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS STY20W
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF TOKYO AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO DECREASED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES, EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH-CENTRAL JAPAN. BY TAU
120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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, but JTWC uses that term on its warnings, actually it has been fixed and now it says super-typhoon again.
