WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[StormingB81]

I missed Rota though. Opps!

[JTE50]

You feeling better Jim? Over that sickness yet?

I sleep for 5 hours and now I'm fine. I'm ready to go back to the Philippines!

Thanks for recording ! They tell me it's set for 10:10pm eastern

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Warning=35kts

I thought they would go up to at least 45 kts based on sat presentation but they know more than me.

WTPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.7N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.2N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.5N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.7N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.0N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 144.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

[drdavisjr]

Good morning everyone. Has everyone had their coffee and bad news for breakfast?

Good morning! Over here in New York we are getting ready for bed. So you're waking up to bad news, and we're going to bed with it (I feel bad that this situation doesn't look very good.)

Thanks pete....yeah, getting worse by the minute...especially since you are normally the optimist

[metenthusiast]

You feeling better Jim? Over that sickness yet?

I sleep for 5 hours and now I'm fine. I'm ready to go back to the Philippines!

Thanks for recording ! They tell me it's set for 10:10pm eastern

It's nice to hear that Jim. And welcome to another weekend of storm chasing here in the Philippines.

[Derek Ortt]

how in God's name does JMA get a pressure of 1002 when 996 was reported?

[drdavisjr]

how in God's name does JMA get a pressure of 1002 when 996 was reported?

I was going to ask that same question last night (manila time) when JMA was reporting 1004 still.

[metenthusiast]

Good morning everyone. Has everyone had their coffee and bad news for breakfast?

Good morning! Over here in New York we are getting ready for bed. So you're waking up to bad news, and we're going to bed with it (I feel bad that this situation doesn't look very good.)

Thanks pete....yeah, getting worse by the minute...especially since you are normally the optimist

Yeah. I was kinda waiting for ozonepete to make a hint this system would recurve. The last time I re-scheduled for dialysis, it was his comments on Lupit I've been listening more, along with other opinions from you guys.

I think this one would be too close to call...

[HURAKAN]

Old but great image

[metenthusiast]

how in God's name does JMA get a pressure of 1002 when 996 was reported?

I was going to ask that same question last night (manila time) when JMA was reporting 1004 still.

Maybe they're giving this too much leeway... or underrating its potential power?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[drdavisjr]

ozonepete or hurakan, how much difference does 20 or 30 miles make in a storm like this? We have friends in Laguna and Cavite (south of Manila) but we live in Quezon City (northeast of Manila). Would it be safer down south?

[drdavisjr]

You feeling better Jim? Over that sickness yet?

I sleep for 5 hours and now I'm fine. I'm ready to go back to the Philippines!

Thanks for recording ! They tell me it's set for 10:10pm eastern

LOL! Crazy storms! Back and forth...

[metenthusiast]

00z forecast graphic from JTWC

[ozonepete]

ozonepete or hurakan, how much difference does 20 or 30 miles make in a storm like this? We have friends in Laguna and Cavite (south of Manila) but we live in Quezon City (northeast of Manila). Would it be safer down south?

20 or 30 miles is usually insignificant if you both are in the same sector of the storm. That's a really small distance in terms of the coverage of a tropical cyclone. More important considerations are it is bad if the area is near the ocean, if the area floods easily and if it faces east. I would rather be facing west with a mountain behind me when this comes in. Otherwise, it won't make much difference.

Also, remember once again that the average track error is 300 miles at 3 days out, so at this point all we know is that it could pass completely north of Luzon or go into the southern Philippines. Way too early.

[metenthusiast]

ozonepete or hurakan, how much difference does 20 or 30 miles make in a storm like this? We have friends in Laguna and Cavite (south of Manila) but we live in Quezon City (northeast of Manila). Would it be safer down south?

I'm not entirely sure about this but I guess you could still feel its effects. If this hit as a Cat 4 typhoon, I presume that it's already a howler and might be already large in size. (Lupit was already 905 km (490 nm) in diameter when it was still in Cat 1 state). PAGASA said that if the forecast track pushes through, rains will be felt as early as Friday night, when the system is still out at sea.

[cycloneye]

Great interview Jim.

[breeze]

Yes, that was a great interview, Jim!

[ozonepete]

You feeling better Jim? Over that sickness yet?

I sleep for 5 hours and now I'm fine. I'm ready to go back to the Philippines!

Thanks for recording ! They tell me it's set for 10:10pm eastern

LOL! Crazy storms! Back and forth...

Got it, Jim. You looked very professional and very serious. Good for you!

[drdavisjr]

Great interview Jim.

Where can I see this interview? Link?