WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.1N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.2N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.2N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.4N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.6N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 31.2N 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 139.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. DUE TO ITS NORTHWARD TRACK, IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS APPROACHED THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
ADDITIONALLY, A 270000Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM GUAM REPORTED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 30-NM EYE WITH AN ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER, A 270341Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY WRAPPED
BANDING AND A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL THAT HAS CONSTRICTED A BIT OVER THE
LAST 18 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS REMAINED
STEADY AT 130 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
(127 KNOTS) AND RJTD (140 KNOTS). STY NIDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THROUGH TAU 24,
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATING INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. AFTER TAU 48, NIDA WILL BEGIN
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT FACES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 96 NIDA WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z
AND 280900Z.//
NNNN
Is that another EWRC starting? I haven't followed this one as closely as I should so this may be a stupid question.
