Wind sustained 30 knots at Molasses Reef off Upper Keys. 35 knots at Sand Key off Key West.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sanf1
ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT
510 MILES...815 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.2N 86.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
WTNT41 KNHC 082048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF IDA HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KT...WITH
SFMR ESTIMATES OF 80-85 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS 85 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO AND CUBA
SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT IDA IS BEING AFFECTED BY
ONGOING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/9. IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE MODELS FORECAST LANDFALLS ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
LANDFALL. THE HWRF IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH A LANDFALL IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE UKMET IS NOTABLE SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LIES NEAR THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE MODEL SPREAD GETS
VERY LARGE DUE TO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW TRACK
CALLS FOR A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION...BUT THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE HURRICANE MAY BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE NEXT
6-12 HR. AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR.
WHILE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE IDA MAKES
LANDFALL...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETELY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST IDA TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS IDA AS A WEAKENING HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL...THEN FORECASTS EXTRATROPICAL TO FINISH AFTER LANDFALL.
IN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.
THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REQUIRES
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IDA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE
LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY
RAINS...AND STORM SURGES TO THAT AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA....POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE BEING
HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF
COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.2N 86.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 26.7N 88.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 29.2N 87.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.7N 86.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 30.0N 79.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT
510 MILES...815 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.2N 86.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
WTNT41 KNHC 082048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF IDA HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KT...WITH
SFMR ESTIMATES OF 80-85 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS 85 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO AND CUBA
SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT IDA IS BEING AFFECTED BY
ONGOING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/9. IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE MODELS FORECAST LANDFALLS ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
LANDFALL. THE HWRF IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH A LANDFALL IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE UKMET IS NOTABLE SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LIES NEAR THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE MODEL SPREAD GETS
VERY LARGE DUE TO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW TRACK
CALLS FOR A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION...BUT THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE HURRICANE MAY BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE NEXT
6-12 HR. AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR.
WHILE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE IDA MAKES
LANDFALL...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETELY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST IDA TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS IDA AS A WEAKENING HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL...THEN FORECASTS EXTRATROPICAL TO FINISH AFTER LANDFALL.
IN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.
THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REQUIRES
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IDA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE
LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY
RAINS...AND STORM SURGES TO THAT AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA....POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE BEING
HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF
COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.2N 86.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 26.7N 88.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 29.2N 87.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.7N 86.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 30.0N 79.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Derek Ortt
URNT15 KWBC 082032
NOAA2 WX11A IDA1 HDOB 02 20091108
202230 2745N 08233W 7381 02735 0139 +123 -287 108028 031 999 999 03
202300 2745N 08235W 7289 02840 0143 +113 -296 110028 029 999 999 03
202330 2745N 08238W 7194 02949 0146 +103 -300 107029 030 999 999 03
202400 2745N 08240W 7104 03053 0142 +099 -304 107028 030 999 999 03
202430 2745N 08243W 7009 03165 0138 +096 -307 108027 028 999 999 03
202500 2745N 08245W 6919 03272 0136 +090 -310 106026 026 999 999 03
202530 2745N 08248W 6836 03372 0142 +080 -312 106025 026 999 999 03
202600 2744N 08251W 6748 03479 0142 +073 -315 107025 026 999 999 03
202630 2744N 08253W 6659 03588 0139 +068 -317 112025 025 999 999 03
202700 2744N 08256W 6572 03695 0135 +063 -321 116025 025 999 999 03
202730 2744N 08258W 6494 03792 0137 +056 -325 116025 025 999 999 03
202800 2744N 08301W 6422 03883 0138 +049 -328 114025 025 003 000 03
202830 2744N 08303W 6358 03964 0140 +042 -331 117024 024 005 000 00
202900 2744N 08306W 6283 04060 0142 +035 -334 115022 022 006 000 00
202930 2744N 08308W 6217 04146 0141 +029 -337 112020 021 009 000 00
203000 2744N 08311W 6157 04224 0143 +023 -341 110021 021 009 000 00
203030 2744N 08313W 6093 04308 0130 +025 -345 108020 020 010 001 00
203100 2743N 08316W 6036 04384 0125 +023 -348 110019 020 012 000 00
203130 2743N 08319W 5979 04461 0122 +020 -351 113017 017 009 000 00
203200 2743N 08321W 5964 04479 0123 +018 -353 115017 017 009 000 00
NOAA plane will be there shortly
NOAA2 WX11A IDA1 HDOB 02 20091108
202230 2745N 08233W 7381 02735 0139 +123 -287 108028 031 999 999 03
202300 2745N 08235W 7289 02840 0143 +113 -296 110028 029 999 999 03
202330 2745N 08238W 7194 02949 0146 +103 -300 107029 030 999 999 03
202400 2745N 08240W 7104 03053 0142 +099 -304 107028 030 999 999 03
202430 2745N 08243W 7009 03165 0138 +096 -307 108027 028 999 999 03
202500 2745N 08245W 6919 03272 0136 +090 -310 106026 026 999 999 03
202530 2745N 08248W 6836 03372 0142 +080 -312 106025 026 999 999 03
202600 2744N 08251W 6748 03479 0142 +073 -315 107025 026 999 999 03
202630 2744N 08253W 6659 03588 0139 +068 -317 112025 025 999 999 03
202700 2744N 08256W 6572 03695 0135 +063 -321 116025 025 999 999 03
202730 2744N 08258W 6494 03792 0137 +056 -325 116025 025 999 999 03
202800 2744N 08301W 6422 03883 0138 +049 -328 114025 025 003 000 03
202830 2744N 08303W 6358 03964 0140 +042 -331 117024 024 005 000 00
202900 2744N 08306W 6283 04060 0142 +035 -334 115022 022 006 000 00
202930 2744N 08308W 6217 04146 0141 +029 -337 112020 021 009 000 00
203000 2744N 08311W 6157 04224 0143 +023 -341 110021 021 009 000 00
203030 2744N 08313W 6093 04308 0130 +025 -345 108020 020 010 001 00
203100 2743N 08316W 6036 04384 0125 +023 -348 110019 020 012 000 00
203130 2743N 08319W 5979 04461 0122 +020 -351 113017 017 009 000 00
203200 2743N 08321W 5964 04479 0123 +018 -353 115017 017 009 000 00
NOAA plane will be there shortly
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145438
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA
...SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.2N 86.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB
LOCATION...22.2N 86.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB
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deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
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Speed of system will OVERCOME SST. Shear will not be any different from NOW to landfall. Once close to land shear will overtake IDA. SST might be cool, remember it is NOV., the acceleration will counter balance that. Hurrikan your right, IDA is beginning to speed up! As Aric said, the GFDL and HWRF have done a pretty darn good job so far.
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Dave
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000
URNT15 KWBC 082042
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 03 20091108
203230 2743N 08324W 5967 04476 0123 +018 -355 115018 018 010 000 00
203300 2743N 08326W 5966 04476 0121 +018 -357 117017 017 012 000 00
203330 2743N 08329W 5967 04474 0115 +019 -359 116017 018 009 001 00
203400 2743N 08332W 5967 04469 0119 +017 -362 118019 019 013 001 00
203430 2742N 08335W 5977 04463 0126 +018 -364 116019 019 014 000 00
203500 2741N 08337W 5986 04446 0121 +019 -367 115020 020 013 000 00
203530 2741N 08340W 5997 04435 0121 +022 -369 115019 020 015 000 00
203600 2740N 08342W 5992 04443 0118 +023 -371 116018 018 017 000 00
203630 2740N 08345W 5993 04441 0119 +022 -372 117019 020 017 001 00
203700 2740N 08347W 5991 04439 0121 +019 -373 115021 021 019 000 00
203730 2739N 08350W 5990 04440 0120 +019 -375 116020 021 019 001 00
203800 2739N 08352W 5990 04440 0117 +021 -376 115019 019 021 000 00
203830 2738N 08355W 5990 04441 0116 +021 -376 113019 019 019 000 00
203900 2738N 08358W 5990 04440 0118 +020 -377 114019 019 020 001 00
203930 2737N 08400W 5990 04440 0118 +019 -377 118018 019 020 001 00
204000 2737N 08403W 5991 04439 0125 +016 -377 120019 019 020 000 00
204030 2736N 08406W 5991 04438 0125 +016 -377 125018 018 021 001 00
204100 2736N 08408W 5992 04437 0123 +017 -378 127018 018 019 002 00
204130 2736N 08411W 5992 04436 0123 +017 -379 128018 018 019 001 00
204200 2735N 08413W 5992 04436 0122 +017 -380 126018 018 019 000 00
URNT15 KWBC 082042
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 03 20091108
203230 2743N 08324W 5967 04476 0123 +018 -355 115018 018 010 000 00
203300 2743N 08326W 5966 04476 0121 +018 -357 117017 017 012 000 00
203330 2743N 08329W 5967 04474 0115 +019 -359 116017 018 009 001 00
203400 2743N 08332W 5967 04469 0119 +017 -362 118019 019 013 001 00
203430 2742N 08335W 5977 04463 0126 +018 -364 116019 019 014 000 00
203500 2741N 08337W 5986 04446 0121 +019 -367 115020 020 013 000 00
203530 2741N 08340W 5997 04435 0121 +022 -369 115019 020 015 000 00
203600 2740N 08342W 5992 04443 0118 +023 -371 116018 018 017 000 00
203630 2740N 08345W 5993 04441 0119 +022 -372 117019 020 017 001 00
203700 2740N 08347W 5991 04439 0121 +019 -373 115021 021 019 000 00
203730 2739N 08350W 5990 04440 0120 +019 -375 116020 021 019 001 00
203800 2739N 08352W 5990 04440 0117 +021 -376 115019 019 021 000 00
203830 2738N 08355W 5990 04441 0116 +021 -376 113019 019 019 000 00
203900 2738N 08358W 5990 04440 0118 +020 -377 114019 019 020 001 00
203930 2737N 08400W 5990 04440 0118 +019 -377 118018 019 020 001 00
204000 2737N 08403W 5991 04439 0125 +016 -377 120019 019 020 000 00
204030 2736N 08406W 5991 04438 0125 +016 -377 125018 018 021 001 00
204100 2736N 08408W 5992 04437 0123 +017 -378 127018 018 019 002 00
204130 2736N 08411W 5992 04436 0123 +017 -379 128018 018 019 001 00
204200 2735N 08413W 5992 04436 0122 +017 -380 126018 018 019 000 00
Last edited by Dave on Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stormcenter
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- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA
Satellite images don't lie. There is definitely dry air making it's
way into the system from the west. Also I know recon. says
she moving NNW but it sure looks like she taking more of northerly
track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
way into the system from the west. Also I know recon. says
she moving NNW but it sure looks like she taking more of northerly
track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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WindRunner
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attallaman
ATL : HURRICANE IDA - Models
Has the NHC advisory map at 3:00 p.m. CST moved Ida's track further to the E? Is it now more of a FL panhandle threat as of the 3:00 p.m. CST advisory and less of a Mobile Bay threat?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA
So there it is. Cat 2, in the Gulf, In November, in an El Nino year.
And now forecasting Hurricane at landfall. Good decision to stick with a hurricane even if it's not.
And now forecasting Hurricane at landfall. Good decision to stick with a hurricane even if it's not.
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M a r k
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attallaman
Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA
That looks like more of a FL panhandle threat and less of a Mobile Bay threat, would that be correct?Brent wrote:
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David in FL
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA
Is this thing going to hold togather and impact us in the jacksonville area? I am literaly right on the beach and was wondering if this is going to do what Fay did last year? If it does hold will it likely be a TD or TD?
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Dave
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URNT15 KWBC 082052
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 04 20091108
204230 2735N 08416W 5993 04433 0126 +014 -380 127019 019 020 001 00
204300 2734N 08419W 5993 04434 0129 +013 -381 129020 020 022 000 00
204330 2734N 08421W 5994 04432 0129 +013 -382 130020 021 023 001 00
204400 2733N 08424W 5993 04433 0129 +013 -383 133021 021 023 001 00
204430 2733N 08426W 5993 04434 0128 +013 -384 131020 020 024 001 00
204500 2733N 08429W 5995 04431 0125 +015 -385 126019 020 023 001 00
204530 2732N 08432W 5993 04434 0121 +017 -386 119018 018 021 001 00
204600 2732N 08434W 5994 04431 0121 +016 -386 124018 019 024 000 00
204630 2731N 08437W 5993 04431 0123 +015 -377 128019 019 025 001 00
204700 2731N 08439W 5994 04431 0123 +014 -347 129019 020 024 001 00
204730 2731N 08442W 5993 04431 0124 +014 -283 131020 020 024 001 00
204800 2730N 08444W 5993 04432 0126 +012 -255 130020 020 025 000 00
204830 2730N 08447W 5993 04432 0124 +013 -239 128020 020 024 002 00
204900 2729N 08449W 5989 04438 0124 +013 -240 125020 020 026 001 00
204930 2729N 08452W 5976 04457 0123 +013 -242 122020 020 026 001 00
205000 2728N 08454W 5964 04473 0121 +013 -243 123020 020 027 001 00
205030 2728N 08457W 5964 04471 0115 +015 -260 128020 021 026 001 00
205100 2727N 08459W 5963 04470 0104 +020 -249 123018 019 026 001 00
205130 2727N 08502W 5963 04471 0102 +021 -203 125018 018 029 000 00
205200 2726N 08504W 5962 04472 0103 +020 -191 125018 018 028 000 00
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 04 20091108
204230 2735N 08416W 5993 04433 0126 +014 -380 127019 019 020 001 00
204300 2734N 08419W 5993 04434 0129 +013 -381 129020 020 022 000 00
204330 2734N 08421W 5994 04432 0129 +013 -382 130020 021 023 001 00
204400 2733N 08424W 5993 04433 0129 +013 -383 133021 021 023 001 00
204430 2733N 08426W 5993 04434 0128 +013 -384 131020 020 024 001 00
204500 2733N 08429W 5995 04431 0125 +015 -385 126019 020 023 001 00
204530 2732N 08432W 5993 04434 0121 +017 -386 119018 018 021 001 00
204600 2732N 08434W 5994 04431 0121 +016 -386 124018 019 024 000 00
204630 2731N 08437W 5993 04431 0123 +015 -377 128019 019 025 001 00
204700 2731N 08439W 5994 04431 0123 +014 -347 129019 020 024 001 00
204730 2731N 08442W 5993 04431 0124 +014 -283 131020 020 024 001 00
204800 2730N 08444W 5993 04432 0126 +012 -255 130020 020 025 000 00
204830 2730N 08447W 5993 04432 0124 +013 -239 128020 020 024 002 00
204900 2729N 08449W 5989 04438 0124 +013 -240 125020 020 026 001 00
204930 2729N 08452W 5976 04457 0123 +013 -242 122020 020 026 001 00
205000 2728N 08454W 5964 04473 0121 +013 -243 123020 020 027 001 00
205030 2728N 08457W 5964 04471 0115 +015 -260 128020 021 026 001 00
205100 2727N 08459W 5963 04470 0104 +020 -249 123018 019 026 001 00
205130 2727N 08502W 5963 04471 0102 +021 -203 125018 018 029 000 00
205200 2726N 08504W 5962 04472 0103 +020 -191 125018 018 028 000 00
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA
attallaman wrote:That looks like more of a FL panhandle threat and less of a Mobile Bay threat, would that be correct?Brent wrote:
again notice its following the eastern side of the cone.. expect a eastward shift again for the 10pm advisory..
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