ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Rainband]

maybe it's a trick of the water vapor loop but it looks to be right of the next forecast point so I say the panhandle big bend area.

[jinftl]

I was going to say thank goodness it is November and not August or conditions overall could be alot more conducive to a major developing....then again, it is possible that there would have been no trough to pull Ida north out of Honduras, so if this was August, perhaps she would have died a slow death over land in Central America.

Regardless, Mother Nature always gets the last word....her voice is even louder than the 'we're done for this dud of a season' posse that has been assuring us the season is finished for the last 3 months.

So there it is. Cat 2, in the Gulf, In November, in an El Nino year.

And now forecasting Hurricane at landfall. Good decision to stick with a hurricane even if it's not.

[Aric Dunn]

maybe it's a trick of the water vapor loop but it looks to be right of the next forecast point so I say the panhandle big bend area.

yeah that is very reasonable.

[Aric Dunn]

just as we think its starting to die.. radar presentation is improving again.. the center is shrinking for sure..

[Sanibel]

Could be that it's taking more of a sideswipe wack just as it enters the Gulf than you realize and the north wobble is shear reflection of the upper and not a track change.

There's a big difference in November between Gulf regime and tropical Caribbean.

[jinftl]

Turn Ida to the right a bit sooner than forecast and...like the ukmet model....and all of a suddenly, bam, this is close to tampa bay....after all, tampa is in the nhc's 'forecast cone' still

That looks like more of a FL panhandle threat and less of a Mobile Bay threat, would that be correct?

again notice its following the eastern side of the cone.. expect a eastward shift again for the 10pm advisory..

[deltadog03]

Looks like IDA is pushing out the drier air. CDO starting to look a bit better.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 082102
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 05 20091108
205230 2725N 08507W 5963 04471 0103 +020 -186 123017 017 028 001 00
205300 2725N 08509W 5963 04471 0102 +021 -184 123017 018 028 001 00
205330 2724N 08512W 5963 04470 0100 +021 -187 127018 018 029 000 00
205400 2724N 08515W 5964 04469 0100 +021 -184 128018 019 029 001 00
205430 2723N 08517W 5963 04469 0097 +023 -205 129019 019 029 000 00
205500 2723N 08520W 5963 04468 0098 +021 -199 131019 020 029 001 00
205530 2722N 08522W 5964 04465 0099 +020 -174 131020 020 029 001 00
205600 2722N 08525W 5965 04464 0102 +018 -176 128020 020 030 001 00
205630 2721N 08527W 5965 04463 0100 +019 -177 128020 020 030 001 00
205700 2720N 08530W 5967 04462 0102 +018 -178 126020 020 031 000 00
205730 2720N 08532W 5965 04463 0102 +018 -178 126020 020 031 001 00
205800 2719N 08535W 5966 04462 0106 +016 -179 127022 022 031 001 00
205830 2719N 08537W 5966 04462 0109 +015 -181 128023 023 031 000 00
205900 2718N 08540W 5965 04464 0111 +013 -178 129024 024 031 001 00
205930 2718N 08543W 5965 04463 0112 +012 -175 129024 024 033 001 00
210000 2717N 08545W 5965 04463 0113 +012 -179 129024 024 033 001 00
210030 2717N 08548W 5966 04461 0112 +012 -177 128023 023 033 000 00
210100 2716N 08550W 5965 04462 0110 +012 -179 126023 023 032 001 00
210130 2716N 08553W 5965 04462 0108 +014 -182 126023 023 032 001 00
210200 2715N 08556W 5966 04461 0110 +013 -183 126023 023 032 001 00

[Ivanhater]

There is a lot of rightcasting going on here. We have recon. It is still going on track

[Rainband]

Could be that it's taking more of a sideswipe wack just as it enters the Gulf than you realize and the north wobble is shear reflection of the upper and not a track change.

There's a big difference in November between Gulf regime and tropical Caribbean.

I was thinking that too but if you look at the WV looks like it has hit a wall to the west and the high is nudging east albeit slowly that was my point.

[HURAKAN]

[jaxfladude]

So Ida had a dry air hiccup and now she has gotten over it?

[Rainband]

There is a lot of rightcasting going on here. We have recon. It is still going on track

bro with all due respect i am just stating what I see. I don't wish cast I am not a kid and I resent your accusation.

[deltadog03]

Aric, you seeing this starting to speed up as well?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082102
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 05 20091108
205230 2725N 08507W 5963 04471 0103 +020 -186 123017 017 028 001 00
205300 2725N 08509W 5963 04471 0102 +021 -184 123017 018 028 001 00
205330 2724N 08512W 5963 04470 0100 +021 -187 127018 018 029 000 00
205400 2724N 08515W 5964 04469 0100 +021 -184 128018 019 029 001 00
205430 2723N 08517W 5963 04469 0097 +023 -205 129019 019 029 000 00
205500 2723N 08520W 5963 04468 0098 +021 -199 131019 020 029 001 00
205530 2722N 08522W 5964 04465 0099 +020 -174 131020 020 029 001 00
205600 2722N 08525W 5965 04464 0102 +018 -176 128020 020 030 001 00
205630 2721N 08527W 5965 04463 0100 +019 -177 128020 020 030 001 00
205700 2720N 08530W 5967 04462 0102 +018 -178 126020 020 031 000 00
205730 2720N 08532W 5965 04463 0102 +018 -178 126020 020 031 001 00
205800 2719N 08535W 5966 04462 0106 +016 -179 127022 022 031 001 00
205830 2719N 08537W 5966 04462 0109 +015 -181 128023 023 031 000 00
205900 2718N 08540W 5965 04464 0111 +013 -178 129024 024 031 001 00
205930 2718N 08543W 5965 04463 0112 +012 -175 129024 024 033 001 00
210000 2717N 08545W 5965 04463 0113 +012 -179 129024 024 033 001 00
210030 2717N 08548W 5966 04461 0112 +012 -177 128023 023 033 000 00
210100 2716N 08550W 5965 04462 0110 +012 -179 126023 023 032 001 00
210130 2716N 08553W 5965 04462 0108 +014 -182 126023 023 032 001 00
210200 2715N 08556W 5966 04461 0110 +013 -183 126023 023 032 001 00

[Blown Away]

Last few frames it looks like Ida will be going to the right of the next forecast point.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you seeing this starting to speed up as well?

Yeah it should be here very soon.. also to comment on the post about "rightcasting" we all agree its moving 340ish but it is and has been the whole time on the right side of the cone, that was and has been the point.

[Ivanhater]

Rainband, I did not say wishcast as that has a negative connotation. It is natural to keep a close eye on these kinds of things and watch for anything that could possibly effect your area. But with recon, she is clearly on track going NNW.

[Dionne]

Check out NOAA GOES FULL DISK on the GOM. It looks like a contest between two storms.....!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082112
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 06 20091108
210230 2715N 08558W 5966 04463 0110 +013 -184 126023 023 033 001 00
210300 2714N 08601W 5967 04460 0108 +015 -189 126023 023 033 000 00
210330 2714N 08603W 5967 04461 0107 +015 -185 125022 022 033 000 00
210400 2713N 08606W 5966 04463 0100 +019 -184 130022 022 033 001 00
210430 2713N 08609W 5966 04463 0099 +020 -188 129022 022 033 000 00
210500 2712N 08611W 5974 04451 0098 +020 -182 130022 022 032 001 00
210530 2712N 08614W 5971 04453 0097 +020 -185 129022 022 032 001 00
210600 2711N 08617W 5971 04453 0101 +017 -176 125022 022 032 001 00
210630 2711N 08619W 5971 04452 0100 +018 -176 123022 022 033 000 00
210700 2710N 08622W 5971 04453 0099 +018 -176 122022 022 033 001 00
210730 2710N 08625W 5971 04452 0101 +017 -181 120022 022 032 000 00
210800 2709N 08627W 5972 04452 0100 +018 -185 120022 022 031 001 00
210830 2708N 08630W 5971 04453 0099 +019 -188 121022 023 032 000 00
210900 2708N 08633W 5971 04453 0100 +018 -192 120022 023 031 000 00
210930 2707N 08635W 5972 04452 0100 +018 -189 120023 023 030 001 00
211000 2707N 08638W 5970 04453 0097 +019 -203 123023 023 031 001 00
211030 2706N 08641W 5970 04452 0096 +020 -243 123023 023 031 001 00
211100 2706N 08643W 5971 04451 0098 +019 -222 121023 023 031 001 00
211130 2705N 08646W 5969 04453 0096 +020 -227 123023 023 030 001 00
211200 2705N 08649W 5971 04451 0092 +021 -229 124024 024 031 000 00