ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weather/1 ... index.html

death toll already up to 91 and likely to climb far higher

[CrazyC83]

I was going to say thank goodness it is November and not August or conditions overall could be alot more conducive to a major developing....then again, it is possible that there would have been no trough to pull Ida north out of Honduras, so if this was August, perhaps she would have died a slow death over land in Central America.

Regardless, Mother Nature always gets the last word....her voice is even louder than the 'we're done for this dud of a season' posse that has been assuring us the season is finished for the last 3 months.

Don't tell Joaquin that he can't come out for a late surprise either!

In 1994, a very slow year, the two strongest storms were both in November - and that was an El Nino year as well.

[dixiebreeze]

National WEather Service (Tampa Bay) for West Central Florida: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[HURAKAN]

Got to go!

[Stormcenter]

Does this really look like it's moving NNW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[jinftl]

Probability of sustained tropical storm force winds is not that much higher in New Orleans than it is in Tampa...esp north TB area

[Sabanic]

It has moved slightly to the right, but at this point nothing is certain for sure, and if she were to make landfall it would mean the west side of Ida would hit Mobile Bay, and based on what some here have said that seems to be her strongest part

[nashrobertsx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
319 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) QUITE A COMPLEX AND
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE IDA. HURRICANE
IDA HAS SLOWLY STRENGTHENED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKING IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE AND CANCUN RADAR. HOWEVER...THE LAST
FEW SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A LITTLE MORE RAGGED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE
WITH SIGNS OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR MAY BE STARTING TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM.

IDA IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAKENING IS
STILL EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS IDA
APPROACHES MUCH COOLER GULF WATERS. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN TEXAS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GULF. THIS SAME UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEND IDA NORTHWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW FAST DOES IDA WEAKEN AND WILL
IT MAINTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA?
THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME MIXED SIGNALS OUT THERE AND FORECASTING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ALWAYS CHALLENGING. THE GFS HAS
DEVELOPED AN INTERESTING SCENARIO WHERE IT FORECASTS A BAROCLINIC
LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF TOMORROW...WHICH IN TURN HANGS UP
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS ALLOWS IDA TO SHOOT
NORTH...REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DELAYING A TRANSITION. IN
FACT...THE CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM CHART FROM THE GFS REVEALS THE MODEL
MAINTAINING A TROPICAL SYSTEM UP UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
THE TROUGH HOLDING BACK...THE COOLER WATER...COOLER DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR...AND INCREASING SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY
BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. TO MAKE IT EVEN MORE
COMPLICATED...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO ITS NORTH...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. ALL IN ALL...IT
IS GOING TO BE A VERY CLOSE CALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM
MAINTAINING THE PUNCH OF A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE COAST.

[Blown Away]

Does this really look like it's moving NNW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

IMO, no! Looks due north to me unless there is some kind of shear from the SW blowing, which I don't think there is.

[LizzardInFlorida]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weather/11/08/tropical.storm.ida/index.html

death toll already up to 91 and likely to climb far higher

I had no idea. That's terrible news for the people of El Salvador.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 082122
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 07 20091108
211230 2704N 08651W 5972 04449 0097 +019 -225 123024 025 031 000 00
211300 2704N 08654W 5972 04450 0097 +019 -221 123024 024 031 001 00
211330 2703N 08657W 5972 04450 0097 +020 -246 123024 024 031 000 00
211400 2703N 08659W 5972 04450 0096 +021 -262 122024 025 031 000 00
211430 2702N 08702W 5972 04451 0095 +022 -326 122025 025 030 000 00
211500 2701N 08704W 5971 04450 0092 +023 -333 125025 025 031 001 00
211530 2701N 08707W 5971 04449 0093 +021 -299 125025 025 031 000 00
211600 2700N 08710W 5971 04449 0098 +018 -279 124025 025 031 001 00
211630 2659N 08712W 5972 04448 0094 +019 -253 126024 025 031 001 00
211700 2658N 08715W 5971 04449 0092 +020 -236 128025 025 031 001 00
211730 2657N 08717W 5970 04449 0091 +020 -219 129024 024 031 001 00
211800 2656N 08719W 5972 04449 0094 +019 -200 129024 024 030 001 00
211830 2655N 08722W 5971 04449 0092 +020 -182 132025 025 031 000 00
211900 2655N 08724W 5973 04447 0088 +023 -180 130025 026 031 001 00
211930 2654N 08727W 5972 04447 0094 +017 -144 130025 025 031 000 00
212000 2653N 08729W 5973 04446 0097 +015 -127 131024 025 032 001 00
212030 2652N 08732W 5973 04445 0099 +014 -121 130025 026 032 000 00
212100 2651N 08734W 5973 04445 0099 +014 -118 130025 026 033 001 00
212130 2650N 08737W 5972 04446 0098 +013 -115 129026 026 033 001 00
212200 2650N 08739W 5972 04445 0096 +015 -133 131026 026 033 001 00

[Rainband]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weather/11/08/tropical.storm.ida/index.html

death toll already up to 91 and likely to climb far higher

I had no idea. That's terrible news for the people of El Salvador.

that's horrible news and even lends more credence to why I don't ever wish cast or in this case right cast in this case that was my point Ivanhater...

[cycloneye]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weather/11/08/tropical.storm.ida/index.html

death toll already up to 91 and likely to climb far higher

I had no idea. That's terrible news for the people of El Salvador.

If I am not mistaken,this was caused by the system that was EPAC Invest 96E.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082131
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 42 20091108
212330 1955N 08646W 5426 05191 0227 -013 -239 208014 015 999 999 03
212400 1957N 08645W 5795 04661 0043 +010 -246 208017 019 999 999 03
212430 2000N 08644W 6195 04129 0067 +041 -234 213018 019 999 999 03
212500 2002N 08643W 6566 03649 0065 +069 -214 226018 019 999 999 03
212530 2004N 08641W 6872 03269 0058 +093 -202 227018 019 016 001 03
212600 2007N 08640W 6959 03160 0058 +098 -203 234017 018 015 001 00
212630 2009N 08639W 6959 03164 0057 +098 -193 233017 018 018 000 00
212700 2011N 08638W 6967 03148 0058 +097 -178 243017 018 017 001 00
212730 2013N 08637W 6967 03149 0057 +097 -164 241018 019 018 001 00
212800 2015N 08636W 6970 03146 0059 +095 -141 237019 019 018 001 00
212830 2017N 08635W 6970 03151 0059 +095 -106 233019 020 018 001 00
212900 2019N 08633W 6970 03145 0062 +090 -070 236019 020 020 000 00
212930 2021N 08632W 6967 03150 0060 +091 -050 233020 020 017 001 00
213000 2023N 08631W 6967 03151 0058 +090 -040 233020 020 019 001 00
213030 2025N 08630W 6968 03147 0058 +090 -032 234020 020 015 001 03
213100 2028N 08630W 6968 03146 0054 +093 -021 231019 020 019 001 03
213130 2030N 08629W 6967 03150 0060 +090 -005 226019 020 018 001 00
213200 2032N 08629W 6967 03149 0046 +098 -002 224022 022 021 000 00
213230 2035N 08629W 6975 03139 0048 +097 -001 228022 022 020 000 00
213300 2037N 08629W 6965 03151 0054 +092 -001 226022 022 021 000 00
$$
;

[WindRunner]

Going down to operational altitude...time to get to business!

[Derek Ortt]

those deaths may be directly due to Ida. 96E was caught in Ida's inflow. 96E basically became a feederband of Ida yesterday

[WindRunner]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weather/11/08/tropical.storm.ida/index.html

death toll already up to 91 and likely to climb far higher

I had no idea. That's terrible news for the people of El Salvador.

If I am not mistaken,this was caused by the system that was EPAC Invest 96E.

Yes, a comparable article from BBC quoted an unnamed NHC forecaster as saying that these deaths were NOT due to anything with Ida.

EDIT: the version they updated this afternoon no longer says it explicitly, but the mention is still there, towards the end:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8349333.stm

[Dave]

[jinftl]

Makes the term 'dud season' a little more subjective...

I don't think there is right-casting going on....rather, it is taking a look at what the implications could be for the NHC keeping much of the peninsula in the forecast cone. I know we can all agree that we don't know for certain what Ida is going to do tomorrow, let alone in 2 or 3 days. Always room for a 'surprise'. That's been the experience with Ida so far, after all.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weather/11/08/tropical.storm.ida/index.html

death toll already up to 91 and likely to climb far higher

I had no idea. That's terrible news for the people of El Salvador.

that's horrible news and even lends more credence to why I don't ever wish cast or in this case right cast in this case that was my point Ivanhater...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082122
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 07 20091108
211230 2704N 08651W 5972 04449 0097 +019 -225 123024 025 031 000 00
211300 2704N 08654W 5972 04450 0097 +019 -221 123024 024 031 001 00
211330 2703N 08657W 5972 04450 0097 +020 -246 123024 024 031 000 00
211400 2703N 08659W 5972 04450 0096 +021 -262 122024 025 031 000 00
211430 2702N 08702W 5972 04451 0095 +022 -326 122025 025 030 000 00
211500 2701N 08704W 5971 04450 0092 +023 -333 125025 025 031 001 00
211530 2701N 08707W 5971 04449 0093 +021 -299 125025 025 031 000 00
211600 2700N 08710W 5971 04449 0098 +018 -279 124025 025 031 001 00
211630 2659N 08712W 5972 04448 0094 +019 -253 126024 025 031 001 00
211700 2658N 08715W 5971 04449 0092 +020 -236 128025 025 031 001 00
211730 2657N 08717W 5970 04449 0091 +020 -219 129024 024 031 001 00
211800 2656N 08719W 5972 04449 0094 +019 -200 129024 024 030 001 00
211830 2655N 08722W 5971 04449 0092 +020 -182 132025 025 031 000 00
211900 2655N 08724W 5973 04447 0088 +023 -180 130025 026 031 001 00
211930 2654N 08727W 5972 04447 0094 +017 -144 130025 025 031 000 00
212000 2653N 08729W 5973 04446 0097 +015 -127 131024 025 032 001 00
212030 2652N 08732W 5973 04445 0099 +014 -121 130025 026 032 000 00
212100 2651N 08734W 5973 04445 0099 +014 -118 130025 026 033 001 00
212130 2650N 08737W 5972 04446 0098 +013 -115 129026 026 033 001 00
212200 2650N 08739W 5972 04445 0096 +015 -133 131026 026 033 001 00