ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

['CaneFreak]

The Bamm Bamms proved accurate with a sheared storm.

YES...and I said this days ago in an exchange with Derek Ortt...the BAMS suite will always outperform the other models in the deep tropics (south of 20)....

[BatzVI]

We have learned here to take precautions, but yesterday, there were people here that didn't even know the storm existed....or the attitude was "it's going north"....I just think that at least a "watch" would at least show we should be "concerned" and do what we think is necessary. I've been through enough of them to know and am always prepared...

[xironman]

Now that SSD finally got its act together and updated the Floater the Guadeloupe center could be quitting and a new center could be forming closer to the convection.

In the aforementioned radar loop http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69 you can clearly see it get torn up by a circulation to the east.

[Sanibel]

There's a very weak vortex up by 18N-60W. This is above the islands in track. Not sure if its the actual center. Maybe not.

It's well within the Hebert Box

[sfwx]

Fay was a weak tropical storm and it caused major damage from the flooding rains. Our focus should be on those in the Islands first before we even start thinking about the CONUS impacts.

Eric

[JTD]

I would be very careful with this system. If it survives the current unfavorable conditions and then gets into a somewhat more favorable pattern heading towards the Bahamas and FL on the south and west side of guidance under a building ridge, history says watch out.

Even a sheared t.s. is a danger in that circumstance of doing something.

[Stormcenter]

The bad thing for Erika is that conditions are not suppose to get any better but maybe even worse. That's why the NHC (not me)says it may end up dissapating.

I would be very careful with this system. If it survives the current unfavorable conditions and then gets into a somewhat more favorable pattern heading towards the Bahamas and FL on the south and west side of guidance, history says watch out.

Even a sheared t.s. is a danger in that circumstance,

[gatorcane]

Give me a break! I said it appears that the storm will not be anything to get worked up about. The NHC has reasons for not predicting a major, but of course anything can happen. If you want to go ahead and work yourself into a frenzy over a very weak T.S, over 1000 miles away, feel free.

I don't see anyone in a frenzy. This board is about discussing the weather and in particular this forum is about discussing tropical weather. That includes messy, weak systems like Erika.

Also, appearances can be very deceptive. Recall, if you can, what a pathetic mess Katrina-to-be was up until less than 24 hours before landfall in Dade County. That's not to say that Erika will do anything like that, but only to say that even messy, pathetically weak systems bear watching in this neighborhood.

Not to mention that a tropical system even weak that can get over the gulf stream (FL Straits) or into the Bahamas can bomb out very quickly if conditions suddenly become favorable.......we have seen this several times before back in history.

Last I checked SSTs are running in the mid 80s (even some upper 80s) in the Straits and Bahamas.

[JTD]

The bad thing for Erika is that conditions are not suppose to get any better but maybe even worse. That's why the NHC (not me)says it may end up dissapating.

I would be very careful with this system. If it survives the current unfavorable conditions and then gets into a somewhat more favorable pattern heading towards the Bahamas and FL on the south and west side of guidance, history says watch out.

Even a sheared t.s. is a danger in that circumstance,

Oh I totally agree with you that it's more than likely to be a sheared mess. It is following a track that opens up other possibilities unfortunately though.

[wxman57]

I do think that Erika has a better-than-not chance of losing its LLC (all of them) in the next 24-48 hours.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I'm glad the forecast is for "poof-ication" given the motion and current location. I will be MUCH happier when this actually opens up and the "naked swirl" alerts can be dropped. Alas, we are a couple days away from confirming that status....I HATE these kids of systems too. I don't see anything in the synoptic pattern to quibble about, it's complex and shear will be the factor again as it has been all year..we all have to just wait it out and see what Erika does.

The pattern longer term is of concern if it survives. Global models seem to agree on a more zonal flow developing at 72 hrs and ridging being in place thereafter. Also if Erika does survive the current a short term shear I think it could be troublesome for the SE US coast, I don't see near enough west movement to put this into the GOM. To me it breaks down like this:

65% chance dissipation in 24-36 hrs. 35% it holds on
thereafter:
75% chance dissipation by 48 hrs
25% chance of this becoming an EC threat (NC because of track position and geography at the time of residual trough-iness just offshore)


NOT a forecast, not a pro, Just this posters opinion...see S2K disclaimer etc.

[storms NC]

Give me a break! I said it appears that the storm will not be anything to get worked up about. The NHC has reasons for not predicting a major, but of course anything can happen. If you want to go ahead and work yourself into a frenzy over a very weak T.S, over 1000 miles away, feel free.

Right now the Islands is what we need to worry about. They can get mud slides and flooding. Tornado's can kill to. they come along with a weak TD or open wave. They can kill as well as a Hurricane. So try and keep a open mind We are all human and not everyone is going to have the same out look on things. Storms are weird at times and it it hard to tell what they will do. Right now not the best looking TS but give her time. She will get her stuff together in a few days. If not then that would be good for the US but like I said right now it is the Island we need to look at not the US for it is to far to call any thing at this point

[cajungal]

of course you need more than just warm waters for a storm to totally bomb out. I remember when Katrina was just a little TD then boom! and lots of damage and deaths occur from just a weak tropical storm. Allison comes to mind! look how many people died in Houston from the floods! and in my town, even though nobody died, we got swamped with 4 ft of water!

[jlauderdal]

we are due for a "next" from Ortt, this system is looking to be real short lived, whats the record for lowest amt of advisories

[Gustywind]

Erika are you wild or nasty ? It's a bad shark...


Looking carefully at the sat pic, she looks like Pac...Woman wit this inverted V turned to the left. You could see an open mouth ready to start to bet the islands... Story to relax our nervs a bit in the islands, sorry but it's just a picture well spoken ... Mystery or hazardous thing i'd prefer a fish called Erika . Looks like she's continuing to approach steadily the Leewards.

[vbhoutex]

Now that SSD finally got its act together and updated the Floater the Guadeloupe center could be quitting and a new center could be forming closer to the convection.

In the aforementioned radar loop http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69 you can clearly see it get torn up by a circulation to the east.

What you can also see clearly is there is still no definite tight LLCC to this storm. I saw at least two different vortexes rotating around. I am thinking that "poofication" may indeed be a real possibility as stated above. However, short term shear tendencies just to its' W/NW are not increasing so it may try to hold on.

[Aquawind]

Hi Lynn! Inflow looks like a reform near the bursting...how far it gets or lasts it anybody's guess...Freaky shear enviroment as already mentioned..Met nightmare system!

[Jimsot]

She is only going to take a small bite out of us.

[Evil Jeremy]

we are due for a "next" from Ortt, this system is looking to be real short lived, whats the record for lowest amt of advisories

There was a TD a few years ago that died after 3 advisories.

[wxman57]

What you can also see clearly is there is still no definite tight LLCC to this storm. I saw at least two different vortexes rotating around. I am thinking that "poofication" may indeed be a real possibility as stated above. However, short term shear tendencies just to its' W/NW are not increasing so it may try to hold on.

Right, I'm waiting for all east Caribbean 15Z obs to arrive in GARP. So far, I'm seeing easterly winds at 10 kts about 50 miles SOUTHWEST of the 15Z center. Recon should have a fun time trying to close off a center this afternoon.