CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 081444
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 2009

FELICIA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS
WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH THE EYE
HAS FILLED SOMEWHAT...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL HAVE
ACTUALLY COOLED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
WILL BE KEPT AT 80 KT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND WHEN THEY ENTER THE EYE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN CONTINUES...AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW
MOVING 280/13. A WESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF CYCLONE. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FELICIA WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
NEAR HAWAII. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY FAST
DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE...AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PART OF THE STORM IS
HELD TO EAST WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES WESTWARD.
WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK AS THE STORM
APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WIND SHEAR NEAR THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR ABOUT
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS...THESE
FACTORS CALL FOR A RELATIVELY SLOW WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE...WHICH WOULD TEND TO
DECREASE THE RATE OF WEAKENING. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO
SHEAR APART IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN TOTAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

DATA FROM A G-IV MISSION THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
HAWAII SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE 1200 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

FUTURE DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA42 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.3N 140.8W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 19.6N 142.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 19.7N 145.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 19.8N 148.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 19.7N 150.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 156.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 19.5N 161.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 166.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

The eye is gone

[cyclonic chronic]

The eye went down very fast. The enviornment is very dry and/or stable to the north and west. it'll b interesting to see what recon finds in a lil bit. Still about 10 deg. away tho and felicia seems to be weakening kinda quickly.

[HURAKAN]

Visible

[HURAKAN]

Continues to deteriorate

[Derek Ortt]

Just looked at Fernanda... this can make a comeback if the shear does not kick in

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/GOESBrowser/goesbrowser

compare aug 14 and 15 1993

[HURAKAN]

Trying to hold its own

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA32 PHFO 082048
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

...FELICIA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS WEST TOWARD
HAWAII...

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 19.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.1 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES EAST OF HILO
HAWAII AND ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND ARE NOW NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FELICIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.8N 142.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



000
WTPA22 PHFO 082049
TCMCP2

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 08 2009

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 142.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 142.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 141.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.1N 144.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.1N 146.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.0N 149.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.0N 152.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.0N 158.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 20.0N 163.6W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 20.5N 169.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 142.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA42 PHFO 082102
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

THE EYE HAS BEEN LESS DISCERNIBLE IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE
ABOUT 1330 UTC...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE AMORPHOUS...ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPERIENCING NO
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS YET. THE FIRST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INTO FELICIA THIS MORNING YIELDED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 981 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB OF 86
KT...WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 77
KT...AND A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED RETRIEVAL OF 66 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 75 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS. THE CURRENT AIR
FORCE MISSION WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A
SECOND MISSION HEADING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A
THIRD AND FINAL NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT. WE GREATLY APPRECIATE THE WORK OF THE AIR FORCE AND
NOAA AIRCRAFT CREWS IN PROVIDING THESE IMPORTANT DATA.

THE LATEST SUITE OF TRACK MODEL RUNS...WHICH HAD THE BENEFIT OF DATA
FROM THE G-IV MISSION THAT CIRCUMNAVIGATED THE HURRICANE LAST
NIGHT...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FELICIA HEADING
WESTWARD TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY PAST HAWAII DURING THE FIVE-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS ON THE EXACT LATITUDE AT WHICH FELICIA
WILL MOVE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE
CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS LITTLE CHANGE.

FELICIA IS OVER THE COLDEST WATERS IT HAS YET EXPERIENCED...BUT FROM
THIS POINT FORWARD ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THE UNDERLYING OCEAN
GETS ONLY GRADUALLY WARMER...SO A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN
LINE WITH ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS NORTH OF
ABOUT 20N...WHICH COULD INDUCE EVEN FASTER WEAKENING ESPECIALLY IF
FELICIA MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER FELICIA WILL
REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM...A DEPRESSION...OR
HAVE DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 19.8N 142.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 20.1N 144.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 20.1N 146.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 20.0N 149.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 20.0N 152.4W 40 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 20.0N 158.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 20.0N 163.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 13/1800Z 20.5N 169.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Derek Ortt]

that track graphic is about 2 days old, sandy

[HURAKAN]

that track graphic is about 2 days old, sandy

Looks again, it says Advisory 21. August 8, 11 AM HST

[Derek Ortt]

they must have just updated it after I posted

[hawaiigirl]

Just looked at Fernanda... this can make a comeback if the shear does not kick in

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/GOESBrowser/goesbrowser

compare aug 14 and 15 1993

this is a really cool site! thanx

[Kingarabian]

Do you guys think it will be a tropical storm by the time it reaches hawaii?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/loop-rb.html

I thought shear was supposed to tear this thing up.

[wxmann_91]

Do you guys think it will be a tropical storm by the time it reaches hawaii?

If it stays at this latitude or gains latitude, it will be nearly dead by the time it reaches Hawaii.

If it loses latitude, it will survive longer, but then it misses Hawaii to the south.

So, with the usual disclaimer, I say the answer to your question is most likely not.

[Derek Ortt]

everyone in Hawaii,

this is expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches Hawaii. No forecast has this weakening below TS intensity, except for the poster above. Doesn't mean that it cannot weaken, just that is not the forecast

[Kingarabian]

everyone in Hawaii,

this is expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches Hawaii. No forecast has this weakening below TS intensity, except for the poster above. Doesn't mean that it cannot weaken, just that is not the forecast

Okay thanks. Cause a year ago or so I warned my parents about Hurricane Flossie, but it really didnt do much of an impact. I don't know whether to warn them or not. I guess will see at the 5PM CPHC advisory.

[wxmann_91]

everyone in Hawaii,

this is expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches Hawaii. No forecast has this weakening below TS intensity, except for the poster above. Doesn't mean that it cannot weaken, just that is not the forecast

Um, the CPHC forecast has LF in Hawaii between forecast points (the 48hr point has Felicia east of HI as a TS and the 72hr point has Felicia west of the Big Island as a TD). The last several NHC forecasts had either LF in Hawaii as a TD or Felicia weakening to TD status before that point.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/gr ... 5NLW.shtml

[HurricaneRobert]

It looks pretty nice still. Maybe another eye forming.

[Derek Ortt]

crossing a 13,000 foot mountain... you should know that causes weakening!