ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Derek Ortt]

if the center forms where the crosshairs are, the EC/CMC likely will have a major bust

[AtlanticWind]

if the center forms where the crosshairs are, the EC/CMC likely will have a major bust

Yes I think the GFS was right on with this as far as where its forming

[Sanibel]

Near 22N-63W with a NW'ward direction.


No Florida-cast direction with this one.

[Bocadude85]

In the latest TWO the Hurricane Center mentions that people in the Bahamas specifically the Turks and Caicos should monitor this system. Gives you an idea where they think the system may be headed.

The two mentions the Bahamas and The Turks and Caicos... I do not see where it says specifically the Turks and Caicos....

[KWT]

Yeah if that is where the center will form then the GFS should have the right idea but we shall see, I'd imagine even if the LLC doesn't form there it would eventually relocate towards the deep convection.

[otowntiger]

Hey Wxman how about posting one of those purdy maps w/ the crosshair for the center.

Ok. Still no evidence of an LLC in the obs, though the pressure is falling at that buoy south of the crosshairs. I think it's well on its way to "Danny", but it won't happen until tomorrow.

quote]

wxman57: Thanks as always for the great info and for your informed and objective opinions. I pay attention to your observations. What are your opinions of the future course of this system should it become Danny in the next 24-48 hrs?

[x-y-no]

Near 22N-63W with a NW'ward direction.


No Florida-cast direction with this one.

I don't think there's a Florida threat in either case.

What I don't understand is how people can be putting the center way up there when there are clear ESE winds south of that. Not to mention the sharp wind shift in the vicinity of the east end of Puerto Rico.

[Derek Ortt]

that statement is probably in because of the proximity. Just as they advised people of the Lesser Antilles to monitor Bill

[Derek Ortt]

there is no inflow near PR. the inflow is going to the north. I'd expect the surface feature to relocate further north

this storm may prove why you don't hug one model. The west tracks likely have the wrong center. Also of note, the MM5 run off of the CMC keeps this offshore, even though the CMC is well inland. That is because the MM5 is forming the center associated with the convection

[otowntiger]

that statement is probably in because of the proximity. Just as they advised people of the Lesser Antilles to monitor Bill

Derek, in other words this system is doing the ole re-curve dance?

[Derek Ortt]

I'd say chances of a miss are about 60/40 right now. Still high enough that we have to monitor though

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
906 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 29 2009 - 12Z TUE SEP 01 2009

TELECONNECTIONS FOR A NEGATIVELY ANOMALY IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WHICH FADES LATE IN THE PERIOD FAVORS RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/THE
NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES WHICH WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA IS SO AMPLIFIED THAT THERE IS ROOM FOR
ENERGY TO UNDERCUT IT ABOUT 20 DEGREES UNDER ITS APEX...IN THE MID
40S LATITUDE. THE MODELS AGREE WITH THESE IDEAS. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
TROUGHING WITH THE 00Z UKMET THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND THE 00Z/06Z
GFS THE QUICKEST TO LIFT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY NORTHWARD. SINCE
THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...THEY ARE
PREFERRED.

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE...NOW NEAR 21.5N 61.5W...WHICH CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
DIFFERENCES AND DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. ALL THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH ITS
TRACK SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHILE THEIR FORWARD MOTION HAS
SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ECMWF MEMBERS MORE WEST/INLAND THAN THE
CANADIAN/GEFS MEMBERS WHICH ARE OFFSHORE. THE NON-ETA 03Z SREF
MEMBERS ALSO PREFER AN OFFSHORE TRACK WHILE THE ETA MEMBERS HEAD
THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. CHOSE TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND TRACK THE SYSTEM
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH LED TO ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT PROGS. THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION
MIRRORS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER VERSION OF THE 06Z DGEX WITH THIS
CYCLONE. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD TO THE LEFT OF ITS TRACK
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...IF THIS TRACK VERIFIES. THE COORDINATION CALL WITH TPC
AT 16Z SHOULD BE INTERESTING TODAY...AND COULD LEAD TO CHANGES IN
THIS PREFERENCE.
ROTH/JAMES

[cycloneye]

This is where Dr Jeff Masters thinks the surface low is forming.

[KWT]

Yeah looking at that cycloneye you can see the inflow startin to get going now towards the northern part of the convection...in that cvase this once again only threats Nova Scotia, but we shall see...maybe thats the hotspot this year?

[ronjon]

if the center forms where the crosshairs are, the EC/CMC likely will have a major bust

Yes I think the GFS was right on with this as far as where its forming

Ah, I don't think so. This mornings 06Z GFS had the low forming as of 8 am this morning near 21N-61W. Now it may still form somewhere near that under the heavy convection but the broad turning and lowest surface pressure is closer to the CMC position. In fact, the 00Z CMC 18 hr forecast position is close to the buoy with the lowest pressure now (just W-SW of Wxman57s crosshairs). A lot of speculation now - let's wait and see if and where the actual center forms - maybe another 12-24 hrs.

[wxman57]

The area closer to 22N/64W catches my eye. Nothing at the surface yet, though.

[ronjon]

there is no inflow near PR. the inflow is going to the north. I'd expect the surface feature to relocate further north

this storm may prove why you don't hug one model. The west tracks likely have the wrong center. Also of note, the MM5 run off of the CMC keeps this offshore, even though the CMC is well inland. That is because the MM5 is forming the center associated with the convection

In this case, hugging one model may have been right ala the GFS since the Euro, CMC, and UKMET all form the system further SW than GFS.

[Derek Ortt]

I meant don't always hug the EURO. While it is the best over the course of an entire season, that still means individual forecasts can be poor

need to hug the models that closest match the synoptics

[Air Force Met]

The area closer to 22N/64W catches my eye. Nothing at the surface yet, though.

Mine too. Pretty good inflow going into that convection.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 25 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-089

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 26/1400Z
D. 25.7N 70.5W
E. 26/1600Z TO 26/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 27/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0404A CYCLONE
C. 26/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
A. 27/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 27/0200Z
D. 27.0N 72.0W
E. 27/0400Z TO 27/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 27/1800Z. A G-V FLIGHT FOR 28/0000Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA MAY BEGIN FLYING RESEARCH MISSIONS
EVER 12 HRS WITH THE FIRST TAKEOFF TENATIVELY SET
FOR 25/2000Z THIS AFTERNOON.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?