EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[x-y-no]

They must be having communication problems. No HDOB for 20 minutes now, and nothing at all for 15 minutes. Last ob was:

URPN11 KNHC 311810
97779 18074 21194 10208 30500 06039 09038 /3121
RMK AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 16
SWS = 42 KTS
SOLID UNC
;

[HURAKAN]

This has certainly being a weird El Niño because the EPAC has had 3 major hurricanes so far and the WPAC only two (JTWC). That's really weird.

[HURAKAN]

Still, Kudos to the NHC because they were estimating 125 knots/940 mb before the RECON found 130 knots/936 mb. That's quite good.

[x-y-no]

Unfortunately, we missed a few but they seem to have started up again anyway ...
URPN15 KNHC 311836
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 39 20090831
182300 1826N 11019W 6967 03144 0047 +090 +048 015037 038 046 003 00
182330 1824N 11019W 6970 03139 0051 +085 +048 014040 041 046 003 03
182400 1822N 11019W 6965 03144 0047 +088 +049 012043 043 046 003 03
182430 1819N 11019W 6969 03138 0054 +083 +050 011041 045 046 004 03
182500 1817N 11019W 6970 03137 0038 +094 +050 009036 037 046 004 03
182530 1815N 11019W 6965 03141 0041 +091 +050 006036 037 999 999 03
182600 1813N 11019W 6967 03139 0043 +090 +052 003036 036 048 004 03
182630 1811N 11020W 6969 03137 0040 +092 +053 358035 036 045 005 03
182700 1809N 11020W 6969 03137 0047 +086 +054 354036 036 046 005 03
182730 1807N 11020W 6967 03139 0041 +090 +055 352036 037 047 004 03
182800 1805N 11020W 6970 03137 0043 +090 +055 352037 037 046 004 03
182830 1803N 11020W 6967 03140 0042 +090 +056 351038 038 999 999 03
182900 1801N 11020W 6967 03139 0042 +090 +057 355038 039 048 003 03
182930 1758N 11020W 6969 03139 0039 +091 +059 356038 039 047 004 03
183000 1756N 11020W 6969 03138 0044 +087 +061 354039 040 999 999 03
183030 1754N 11020W 6969 03138 0041 +089 +062 351039 039 046 004 03
183100 1752N 11021W 6967 03140 0046 +087 +063 350039 040 046 004 03
183130 1750N 11021W 6969 03138 0041 +090 +064 347037 038 045 004 03
183200 1748N 11021W 6969 03139 0042 +090 +063 346038 038 044 006 03
183230 1746N 11021W 6967 03143 0041 +091 +062 347037 038 043 003 03
$$
;

[x-y-no]

Looks like we only missed part of a southbound leg well west of the storm.

[x-y-no]

URPN15 KNHC 311842
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 40 20090831
183300 1744N 11021W 6967 03141 0036 +095 +060 351038 039 043 003 03
183330 1742N 11021W 6970 03137 0037 +095 +060 352039 040 042 003 03
183400 1740N 11021W 6969 03141 0041 +093 +061 348037 038 999 999 03
183430 1738N 11021W 6966 03144 0051 +084 +062 348038 039 999 999 03
183500 1735N 11021W 6969 03140 0048 +087 +062 346037 038 999 999 03
183530 1733N 11022W 6973 03139 0059 +081 +059 343036 037 999 999 03
183600 1731N 11022W 6969 03144 0061 +079 +055 338035 035 042 008 03
183630 1729N 11022W 6966 03147 0071 +073 +051 332038 039 043 009 03
183700 1727N 11022W 6969 03143 0064 +078 +048 328031 033 042 006 03
183730 1725N 11022W 6971 03143 0061 +082 +045 337031 033 042 006 03
183800 1723N 11022W 6965 03151 0043 +096 +043 338030 030 999 999 03
183830 1721N 11022W 6969 03145 0048 +092 +042 338031 031 999 999 03
183900 1719N 11022W 6967 03146 0051 +090 +044 339031 031 999 999 03
183930 1717N 11023W 6968 03145 0050 +090 +045 342031 032 999 999 03
184000 1715N 11023W 6971 03144 0055 +087 +046 339031 031 999 999 03
184030 1713N 11023W 6967 03147 0051 +090 +046 336032 033 999 999 03
184100 1711N 11023W 6970 03144 0054 +089 +047 338033 034 037 003 03
184130 1709N 11023W 6969 03146 0055 +086 +049 339030 030 999 999 03
184200 1707N 11023W 6969 03146 0048 +093 +052 326032 033 036 003 03
184230 1705N 11023W 6968 03149 0043 +096 +054 315035 037 999 999 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Still, Kudos to the NHC because they were estimating 125 knots/940 mb before the RECON found 130 knots/936 mb. That's quite good.

Pretty good estimate, although they thought the 125 kt was generous but at least they held onto it until Recon arrived.

My UNOFFICIAL, UNPROVEN guess for the BT:

28/1800: 30 kt/1004mb
29/0000: 35 kt/1003mb
29/0600: 50 kt/994mb
29/1200: 75 kt/978mb
29/1800: 100 kt/956mb
30/0000: 95 kt/960mb
30/0600: 105 kt/956mb
30/1200: 130 kt/935mb
30/1800: 145 kt/925mb
31/0000: 140 kt/929mb
31/0600: 135 kt/934mb
31/1200: 130 kt/937mb
31/1800: 130 kt/936mb

[x-y-no]

they should turn NE soon for another pass through the center.

[HurricaneRobert]

The eye's a little bit bigger, though. With 150 mph it could still strengthen a little past that threshold. Then we don't have to wait to find out like Carlos.

[RattleMan]

The missing HDOBs:

000
URPN15 KNHC 311833
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 37 20090831
180300 1911N 11000W 6971 03148 0069 +082 +025 050035 039 048 009 00
180330 1912N 11001W 6969 03151 0069 +081 +024 053031 031 047 010 00
180400 1913N 11003W 6970 03149 0067 +084 +024 053029 031 046 009 00
180430 1915N 11004W 6967 03154 0062 +088 +024 057033 034 046 008 00
180500 1916N 11005W 6969 03153 0063 +090 +024 059036 037 046 007 03
180530 1917N 11007W 6971 03153 0065 +090 +025 060038 038 045 006 00
180600 1918N 11008W 6969 03155 0063 +091 +027 060038 039 043 005 00
180630 1920N 11009W 6970 03155 0061 +094 +029 059038 038 043 004 03
180700 1921N 11011W 6969 03158 0066 +090 +031 057039 040 043 004 00
180730 1922N 11012W 6967 03160 0068 +088 +034 060037 038 043 004 03
180800 1924N 11013W 6970 03155 0066 +090 +036 060034 034 041 004 03
180830 1924N 11015W 6966 03160 0068 +088 +039 054031 032 999 999 03
180900 1922N 11016W 6968 03159 0067 +088 +042 051029 030 999 999 03
180930 1920N 11016W 6970 03154 0066 +088 +045 053032 033 043 004 03
181000 1918N 11016W 6968 03157 0062 +090 +046 053033 033 043 003 03
181030 1916N 11016W 6969 03155 0062 +090 +046 055034 035 041 005 03
181100 1914N 11016W 6968 03155 0062 +090 +046 056033 034 044 003 03
181130 1912N 11016W 6969 03153 0059 +090 +046 054033 033 043 004 03
181200 1910N 11016W 6968 03153 0059 +090 +046 050033 033 044 004 03
181230 1908N 11016W 6970 03150 0059 +090 +046 047034 034 044 004 03
$$
;

000
URPN15 KNHC 311835
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 38 20090831
181300 1906N 11016W 6967 03153 0055 +091 +046 040032 033 045 003 03
181330 1904N 11017W 6969 03150 0056 +090 +046 037033 033 045 003 03
181400 1902N 11017W 6970 03150 0054 +092 +047 035033 033 046 004 03
181430 1900N 11017W 6970 03146 0050 +094 +047 035033 034 045 005 03
181500 1858N 11017W 6968 03149 0052 +091 +048 033034 034 045 004 03
181530 1856N 11017W 6970 03146 0056 +086 +049 032033 034 046 005 03
181600 1854N 11017W 6967 03149 0058 +085 +049 031032 032 045 005 03
181630 1852N 11017W 6971 03144 0060 +083 +048 031031 031 045 005 03
181700 1850N 11017W 6967 03149 0065 +080 +046 027031 032 046 005 03
181730 1848N 11017W 6970 03143 0058 +084 +045 027030 031 045 004 03
181800 1846N 11018W 6967 03146 0057 +085 +043 020028 028 999 999 03
181830 1844N 11018W 6970 03142 0055 +086 +042 019029 030 999 999 03
181900 1842N 11018W 6968 03144 0047 +090 +042 022033 034 045 004 03
181930 1840N 11018W 6969 03142 0044 +092 +043 025032 032 999 999 03
182000 1838N 11018W 6969 03143 0044 +092 +045 028032 033 999 999 03
182030 1836N 11018W 6969 03142 0039 +094 +047 030032 035 046 005 03
182100 1834N 11018W 6970 03140 0040 +094 +048 031036 037 046 004 03
182130 1832N 11018W 6970 03140 0042 +092 +048 036040 040 046 004 03
182200 1830N 11018W 6966 03144 0045 +090 +048 029040 041 046 004 03
182230 1828N 11019W 6971 03138 0047 +090 +049 025037 039 047 003 03
$$
;

[x-y-no]

Inbound SW quadrant:

URPN15 KNHC 311852
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 41 20090831
184300 1703N 11023W 6970 03147 0044 +096 +057 311036 036 999 999 03
184330 1701N 11023W 6967 03151 0050 +092 +060 313036 037 999 999 03
184400 1659N 11024W 6969 03149 0054 +090 +063 316035 037 999 999 03
184430 1658N 11025W 6966 03155 0051 +093 +065 321032 033 999 999 03
184500 1656N 11025W 6967 03153 0059 +087 +067 318031 032 999 999 03
184530 1654N 11024W 6967 03152 0060 +085 +068 315031 032 999 999 03
184600 1655N 11022W 6974 03147 0056 +089 +067 308032 033 040 007 03
184630 1656N 11020W 6972 03151 0075 +075 +067 308030 031 999 999 03
184700 1657N 11019W 6963 03156 0062 +082 +065 306030 031 032 006 03
184730 1659N 11019W 6966 03151 0048 +093 +061 309032 033 028 004 03
184800 1700N 11018W 6969 03146 0044 +097 +058 306035 036 029 004 00
184830 1701N 11016W 6969 03147 0045 +097 +057 304034 035 029 004 00
184900 1703N 11015W 6971 03144 0044 +095 +059 313032 034 029 004 00
184930 1704N 11014W 6968 03147 0045 +094 +062 325027 028 029 004 00
185000 1705N 11013W 6966 03146 0047 +091 +065 330025 026 030 004 00
185030 1706N 11011W 6970 03141 0042 +093 +066 334027 028 029 004 00
185100 1708N 11010W 6969 03144 0048 +088 +067 329025 026 030 005 00
185130 1709N 11009W 6973 03138 0047 +089 +068 329026 027 031 005 00
185200 1710N 11008W 6975 03135 0041 +092 +068 331028 029 032 005 00
185230 1711N 11006W 6974 03134 0044 +089 +068 328027 028 033 007 00
$$

[srainhoutx]

One more pass by RECON ahead. I agree this was probably a Cat 5 yesterday. I have noticed that data is suggesting EWRC was complete before RECON arrived. We may yet see a Cat 5 again, IMHO.

[Derek Ortt]

a larger eye can mean higher winds

it means a tighter pressure gradient between the eye and the outer environment

it probably was a 5 yesterday. However, it also looks like a 5 now

also, 1km visible is showing what may be a right wobble

[x-y-no]

URPN15 KNHC 311902
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 42 20090831
185300 1713N 11005W 6968 03141 0047 +087 +067 326033 034 034 006 00
185330 1714N 11004W 6967 03139 0044 +087 +064 325036 037 033 007 00
185400 1715N 11003W 6967 03138 0049 +082 +060 322038 040 033 007 00
185430 1716N 11001W 6970 03135 0061 +073 +056 323038 040 035 008 00
185500 1717N 11000W 6967 03138 0063 +071 +052 329035 036 035 010 00
185530 1719N 10959W 6968 03133 0057 +074 +049 332032 035 036 009 00
185600 1720N 10958W 6974 03127 0055 +077 +045 331034 036 037 010 00
185630 1721N 10956W 6966 03134 0053 +075 +043 334036 038 039 016 00
185700 1722N 10955W 6971 03128 0052 +076 +042 326033 034 041 011 00
185730 1723N 10954W 6972 03126 0045 +080 +040 318037 037 041 012 00
185800 1725N 10953W 6978 03117 0065 +064 +040 318039 045 049 024 03
185830 1726N 10951W 6968 03128 0058 +068 +040 322037 040 048 021 00
185900 1727N 10950W 6976 03113 0057 +063 +040 329037 039 045 017 00
185930 1728N 10949W 6969 03127 0030 +088 +040 325036 037 045 012 00
190000 1729N 10948W 6967 03121 0014 +096 +040 327036 036 039 004 00
190030 1731N 10946W 6971 03116 0010 +099 +040 325034 035 041 005 00
190100 1732N 10945W 6967 03117 0011 +094 +043 321032 033 042 005 00
190130 1733N 10944W 6974 03107 0013 +091 +048 318028 029 047 009 00
190200 1734N 10943W 6962 03115 0027 +074 +051 313029 038 050 018 00
190230 1736N 10941W 6975 03100 0027 +075 +053 318042 043 049 015 00
$$
;

[shah8]

I'm also thinking about D&D, but you gotta remember, Cozumel took one of the hardest hits a resort area has ever taken from a hurricane and did okay. Baja Del Sur might do just fine.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm also thinking about D&D, but you gotta remember, Cozumel took one of the hardest hits a resort area has ever taken from a hurricane and did okay. Baja Del Sur might do just fine.

Cozumel and Cancun suffered heavy damage from Gilbert and Wilma. They did okay from Emily, however

[x-y-no]

URPN15 KNHC 311912
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 43 20090831
190300 1737N 10940W 6969 03105 0006 +089 +052 322041 042 045 009 00
190330 1738N 10939W 6967 03106 0002 +091 +051 317041 042 045 008 00
190400 1739N 10937W 6970 03100 9996 +093 +050 319040 042 043 007 00
190430 1741N 10936W 6969 03100 9997 +090 +050 318039 040 043 007 00
190500 1742N 10935W 6971 03093 9990 +094 +050 323039 040 045 007 00
190530 1743N 10934W 6967 03095 9985 +095 +050 319039 040 047 006 00
190600 1744N 10932W 6966 03094 9985 +093 +051 314038 039 048 006 00
190630 1746N 10931W 6970 03085 9984 +091 +052 311039 041 047 007 00
190700 1747N 10930W 6969 03084 9977 +094 +052 307041 042 049 007 00
190730 1748N 10928W 6973 03076 9978 +089 +052 308043 043 051 010 00
190800 1749N 10927W 6971 03071 9975 +086 +053 316041 042 053 012 00
190830 1751N 10926W 6967 03072 9981 +076 +052 312043 045 054 014 00
190900 1752N 10924W 6973 03056 9974 +077 +052 316051 052 056 010 00
190930 1753N 10923W 6969 03056 9943 +097 +052 312048 049 056 008 00
191000 1754N 10922W 6970 03051 9931 +101 +053 314050 050 056 008 03
191030 1756N 10921W 6967 03045 9938 +089 +054 312049 049 058 010 00
191100 1757N 10919W 6971 03032 9934 +085 +056 312050 051 058 011 00
191130 1758N 10918W 6975 03021 9925 +085 +057 313051 051 060 010 00
191200 1759N 10917W 6969 03020 9893 +104 +057 314053 054 062 007 00
191230 1800N 10915W 6967 03010 9867 +115 +057 314057 059 063 006 00
$$
;

[x-y-no]

Weird ... SFMR is consistently higher than flight, but no flags.

Eyewall should be in the next set.

EDIT: Correction ... only 1 line flagged.

[HURAKAN]

Putting up a show now for the RECON

[x-y-no]

URPN15 KNHC 311925
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 44 20090831
191300 1802N 10914W 6967 02996 9858 +110 +059 313062 063 064 005 00
191330 1803N 10913W 6969 02981 9840 +110 +063 313063 065 066 007 00
191400 1804N 10912W 6975 02953 9823 +105 +068 308065 066 072 009 00
191430 1805N 10910W 6963 02947 9796 +109 +071 303069 072 074 010 00
191500 1807N 10909W 6976 02904 9765 +110 +072 304079 083 079 007 00
191530 1808N 10908W 6963 02881 9704 +124 +072 303091 095 092 010 00
191600 1809N 10906W 6955 02829 9667 +095 +071 299102 105 094 042 03
191630 1811N 10905W 6983 02709 9573 +098 +074 293109 114 116 050 00
191700 1812N 10904W 6982 02615 9465 +107 +076 281091 118 124 037 03
191730 1814N 10902W 6950 02606 9369 +148 +081 257050 064 999 999 03
191800 1816N 10902W 6967 02549 9326 +160 +087 237021 031 999 999 03
191830 1817N 10902W 6978 02527 9301 +177 +095 026001 006 999 999 03
191900 1819N 10902W 6984 02516 9283 +191 +103 081013 015 999 999 03
191930 1820N 10901W 6941 02550 9259 +194 +113 115029 041 036 004 03
192000 1821N 10900W 6920 02594 9293 +176 +124 130072 091 071 004 03
192030 1822N 10859W 6945 02626 9376 +136 +133 130120 135 132 004 03
192100 1823N 10858W 6964 02678 9990 +107 +999 132146 149 131 012 01
192130 1824N 10857W 6985 02727 9578 +118 +118 131142 144 118 004 03
192200 1825N 10856W 6963 02813 9630 +118 +118 131134 139 111 000 03
192230 1826N 10855W 6971 02846 9990 +096 +999 131124 128 100 006 01
$$
;