WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[JTE50]

I just woke up, it's 9:33am here on Guam and WOW, Melor is still a SuperTypoon and then some. What a beauty. Let's hope it doesn't hit any Island 160 mph sustained is a scary thought and I don't think much will survive that kind of wind without some major damage. If it does hit Okinawa, shoot some pics but be safe. Would love to see them!!!!

[StormingB81]

I am staying inside. lol Well I would have to if we get a direct hit but oh what I can I will take pics and post them

[HURAKAN]

No surprise it's a cat 5

[ozonepete]

Very rare to see a core like that.

[JonathanBelles]

Guys, please please PLEASE be careful!! We can see the pictures on the news but I do not want to see your numbers in the form of a death toll on TV. If you are not trained, and even if you are, please do not go out in typhoons. Please move the safest place you can be in, whether it be your house or 100 miles away. Please stay safe. You should not be wishing for a typhoon.

[CrazyC83]

It looked even stronger earlier today though. 140 kt seems reasonable right now.

[CrazyC83]

Guys, please please PLEASE be careful!! We can see the pictures on the news but I do not want to see your numbers in the form of a death toll on TV. If you are not trained, and even if you are, please do not go out in typhoons. Please move the safest place you can be in, whether it be your house or 100 miles away. Please stay safe. You should not be wishing for a typhoon.

Especially considering the horror stories from US landfalling storms were mostly from storms significantly weaker than this monster...this is as strong as Katrina and Rita were at their peak!

[StormingB81]

They say the building we are in can withstand 200MPH winds...

[Infdidoll]

I'm not stupid enough to go outside during one...unlike the Okinawan "surfers" that were outside yesterday trying to surf in a thunderstorm with lightning. Mother Nature is great to witness....from a distance. That's why God made zoom lenses, windows, and tripods! I'll still be cowering in my kitchen crying like a little girl while leaving the camera running. I just wish we had someplace away from the seawall to go during these things. Everyone around here acts like typhoons are no big deal and you're called some names for even being so uncool as to mention them.

Our apartment is elevated, so I'm hoping we're going to be okay and safe enough from flooding. Doesn't look like we have much choice other than to weather it out here. We can't get 100 miles away...I think the island is only 60 miles long. Kind of a crappy situation to be in, right now. I'm all for a vacation to Guam, right now!

[ozonepete]

They say the building we are in can withstand 200MPH winds...

Good, but let's hope you don't get to test it!

[Infdidoll]

They say the building we are in can withstand 200MPH winds...

What area are you in? We're in Ginowan. We live in a big, thick concrete structure with a parking area underneath that's about 8 stories. I'm hoping it can withstand 200mPh winds. I think it's time to call our leasing agent and see what the owner's policy is about typhoons and what he/she would like us to do considering we can't plywood the windows, etc.

[JTE50]

Guys, please please PLEASE be careful!! We can see the pictures on the news but I do not want to see your numbers in the form of a death toll on TV. If you are not trained, and even if you are, please do not go out in typhoons. Please move the safest place you can be in, whether it be your house or 100 miles away. Please stay safe. You should not be wishing for a typhoon.

I don't think anyone is "wishing" for a typhoon. Nobody controls the weather. However it it hits and I can get there I will - everytime - and I'll shoot stills and video. If you want to stay underneath the bed or in the bathroom with a mattress over you - that's fine too. You make the call based on what's going on around you. Be smart, stay up with the storm by checking out this thread, and stay safe that's #1.

[CrazyC83]

If the intensification had happened 12 hours earlier and the storm moved more to the right, the Marianas would have been completely annihilated. I doubt the islands could withstand 175 mph winds...

[StormingB81]

JMA has moved if probability circle more to the west. Okinawa is more in the circle.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC track from JMA.

[StormingB81]

Now thats what I call timing cyclone..lol

[JTE50]

Guam, Rota, Tinian, & Saipan are the main Islands in the Marianas with lots of people. The Islands to the north are remote - accessible by boat only and few people live on them. Melor went north of Saipan but we still had gusts to approximately 80 mph. I had a pressure of 989 at 6pm Saipan time. Had Melor gone just a tad left of track, like Chuba in 2004, Saipan would have been hit hard. Folks on these Islands in the Pacific have seen Typhoons before and know what to expect. Houses and buildings are built better - mostly out of that crush coral/concrete - not brick or wood like in the US - and they are solid. Most motels have backup generation - at least on Guam and Saipan they do. Guam use to have structures like Quansut huts but typhoons Pamela, Yuri, Omar, & Paka took care of those.

[Infdidoll]

Guam, Rota, Tinian, & Saipan are the main Islands in the Marianas with lots of people. The Islands to the north are remote - accessible by boat only and few people live on them. Melor went north of Saipan but we still had gusts to approximately 80 mph. I had a pressure of 989 at 6pm Saipan time. Had Melor gone just a tad left of track, like Chuba in 2004, Saipan would have been hit hard. Folks on these Islands in the Pacific have seen Typhoons before and know what to expect. Houses and buildings are built better - mostly out of that crush coral/concrete - not brick or wood like in the US - and they are solid. Most motels have backup generation - at least on Guam and Saipan they do. Guam use to have structures like Quansut huts but typhoons Pamela, Yuri, Omar, & Paka took care of those.

Dear God, I hope you're right and this building is strong enough to withstand what's coming. I'm badgering my husband to see if there is anywhere else we could go to weather this thing out. Being right on the ocean makes me nervous. Morakot passed us a while back - not even a direct hit and winds were screaming around this building like nothing I've ever heard.

There is a swarm of dragonflies over the ocean, right now, right in front of my place. I heard that's a symbol of a change in barometric pressure...but I'm not sure if that's true or not.

Great video of Melor from Saipan, though! I guess those people learned their lesson about standing in storm surge?

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Warning=140kts

WTPN34 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.0N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.1N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.3N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.2N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.7N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 42.3N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 135.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

The new advisory is out. They got it closer (even though not by much) to Okinawa. I am sure we wil lknow by tomorrow.