WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 139.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 139.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.3N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.3N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.9N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.4N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 139.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A 25 NM EYE AND
IMPROVED EYEWALL CONVECTION. A 271700Z AMSU IMAGE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT STY 26W IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED FORWARD MOTION TO 04 KNOTS WITH TROCHOIDAL MOTION;
STY 26W IS STILL TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 140 (RJTD) TO 155
KNOTS (PGTW). CURRENT ANALYSIS OF 700/500MB DATA SUPPORTS A SLOW
NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH ZONAL MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 25N. BASED ON THIS
ANALYSIS AND THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION, THE TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASED THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AND TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED AT TAU 72/96 TO
REFLECT DE-COUPLING DUE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
JGSM, ECMWF, UKMO AND GFS INDICATING RAPID WEAKENING AND A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES
WHILE NOGAPS AND GFDN SUPPORT A RAPID ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE INDICATORS IN THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY
WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE PRIMARILY TO A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH MAY PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM COMPLETING
ITS ETT AND LEAD TO A DISSIPATION SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z,
280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
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Most of the models are now favoring a western track however, JTWC's track still has it moving NE...
