ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Ivanhater]

Stil expanding on the West and Northwest side

[Aric Dunn]

better yet..

[guyclaude08]

Umm Hello im new here and i would like to congratulate u guys on ur hard work,staying late at night to track Ida,i would like to know why Ida is still intensifying,and i thought there were high wind shear there what's going on plz explain..........................

[brunota2003]

I think that is the rain rate

[smw1981]

With this whole shift to the east thing (I am in Mobile, AL), I am wondering if I should still get my patio furniture and all of that in tonight or not. I won't have time to do it tomorrow (if Ida does come our way) because I will have to help secure my work and then my grandmother's house.

Soooo, what is the thought of Ida shifting back to the west or shifting MORE east?

Decisions, decisions...

[Aric Dunn]

I think that is the rain rate

apparently its lat and lon... ??



First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable

[Aric Dunn]

With this whole shift to the east thing (I am in Mobile, AL), I am wondering if I should still get my patio furniture and all of that in tonight or not. I won't have time to do it tomorrow (if Ida does come our way) because I will have to help secure my work and then my grandmother's house.

Soooo, what is the thought of Ida shifting back to the west or shifting MORE east?

Decisions, decisions...

probably cause its going to be windy either way..

[CrazyC83]

It seems the difference between the SFMR and FL winds is increasing - FL winds of 108 kt (surface converted to 97 kt) but SFMR only supports 74 kt. Pressure is up to an extrapolated 978mb, but dropsondes have been consistently lower than the flight estimates.

Given the data, I would put it at 80 kt right now.

[Cyclenall]

I'm still amazed it's that strong based on the presentation but earlier today it looked like a eye was appearing before deep convective tops obscured it again. This is probably the most interesting part of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season for me.

[smw1981]

Umm Hello im new here and i would like to congratulate u guys on ur hard work,staying late at night to track Ida,i would like to know why Ida is still intensifying,and i thought there were high wind shear there what's going on plz explain..........................

Welcome to S2k! Just a helpful hint, if you read back a couple of pages (around 3-4), you can usually get your questions answered without having to ask it and wait for an answer! But to answer this one...basically the shear is decreasing and not really having an impact on Ida right now (and the shear ahead of her is decreasing as well right now). Really though, you can get much more detailed explanations from page 106-the present page or so!

[Aric Dunn]

It seems the difference between the SFMR and FL winds is increasing - FL winds of 108 kt (surface converted to 97 kt) but SFMR only supports 74 kt.

there are a lot of flags with the sfmr right now.. something is up with it..

[brunota2003]

talking about the AF or NOAA plane?

[LizzardInFlorida]

So are our 24 mph East winds in here in St. Pete due to Ida?
It's been windy this week. Just curious if it's on the rise from here?

[jinftl]

Evening update from Dr. Jeff Masters:

Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble

The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

[Dave]

Definite problems on NOAA2 - holding up on HDOB's after this one.

URNT15 KWBC 082312
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 18 20091108
230230 2700N 08632W 7276 02857 0139 +117 -289 116027 027 027 000 00
230300 2700N 08632W 7276 02857 0138 +118 -281 115027 027 027 000 00
230330 2700N 08632W 7276 02855 0139 +116 -285 117026 027 026 000 00
230400 2700N 08632W 7276 02855 0141 +114 -277 117026 027 026 000 00
230430 2700N 08632W 7276 02854 0138 +116 -279 116026 026 025 001 00
230500 2700N 08632W 7275 02855 0137 +117 -288 117026 026 024 000 00
230530 2700N 08632W 7276 02854 0136 +117 -289 117026 026 024 001 00
230600 2700N 08632W 7276 02855 0135 +119 -285 117026 026 025 000 00
230630 2700N 08632W 7276 02855 0134 +119 -285 117026 026 024 000 00
230700 2700N 08632W 7276 02855 0135 +119 -284 118026 026 024 000 00
230730 2700N 08632W 7276 02855 0137 +117 -283 117026 026 025 000 00
230800 2700N 08632W 7277 02854 0138 +116 -284 117026 026 024 000 00
230830 2700N 08632W 7275 02855 0139 +115 -286 117026 026 023 000 00
230900 2700N 08632W 7275 02855 0137 +116 -287 117026 026 023 001 00
230930 2700N 08632W 7275 02854 0137 +116 -287 117026 026 023 000 00
231000 2700N 08632W 7274 02855 0136 +116 -286 116027 027 024 000 00
231030 2700N 08632W 7274 02856 0136 +116 -289 115028 028 024 000 00
231100 2700N 08632W 7274 02856 0137 +115 -290 114028 029 023 000 00
231130 2700N 08632W 7274 02857 0140 +114 -289 115028 028 024 000 00
231200 2700N 08632W 7274 02857 0137 +116 -287 116028 028 023 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

Evening update from Dr. Jeff Masters:


Jeff Masters[/i]

when was that..

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082321
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 53 20091108
231330 2309N 08643W 6961 03120 0041 +066 +033 053035 037 054 010 00
231400 2310N 08644W 6969 03117 0016 +093 +030 062031 032 054 006 03
231430 2312N 08646W 6969 03114 9997 +107 +028 072029 030 051 005 00
231500 2313N 08647W 6963 03119 0000 +105 +028 079029 031 052 003 00
231530 2314N 08649W 6967 03121 0017 +095 +029 076032 033 051 003 00
231600 2316N 08650W 6964 03123 0022 +093 +030 076033 034 047 000 00
231630 2317N 08652W 6962 03134 0025 +094 +032 074032 034 047 002 00
231700 2318N 08653W 6967 03130 0022 +100 +035 076032 033 045 000 03
231730 2320N 08655W 6963 03136 0027 +095 +039 074034 035 044 000 00
231800 2321N 08657W 6967 03135 0027 +097 +045 077031 031 042 000 00
231830 2322N 08658W 6969 03134 0031 +095 +049 070030 031 043 000 00
231900 2324N 08700W 6964 03141 0033 +092 +052 072030 030 041 000 00
231930 2325N 08702W 6970 03136 0030 +096 +055 074032 033 041 000 00
232000 2327N 08704W 6968 03135 0030 +098 +058 077035 036 041 001 00
232030 2328N 08706W 6967 03143 0030 +099 +060 081035 035 042 001 00
232100 2330N 08707W 6968 03143 0040 +093 +063 083036 037 040 001 00
232130 2331N 08709W 6968 03139 0041 +093 +065 087034 035 038 001 00
232200 2332N 08711W 6968 03141 0043 +091 +066 086035 036 038 000 00
232230 2334N 08713W 6980 03133 0050 +090 +067 084031 033 036 001 00
232300 2335N 08715W 6966 03150 0051 +088 +068 087031 035 035 000 00
$$
;

[smw1981]

With this whole shift to the east thing (I am in Mobile, AL), I am wondering if I should still get my patio furniture and all of that in tonight or not. I won't have time to do it tomorrow (if Ida does come our way) because I will have to help secure my work and then my grandmother's house.

Soooo, what is the thought of Ida shifting back to the west or shifting MORE east?

Decisions, decisions...

probably cause its going to be windy either way..

haha..I know that much! I just wondered what the thought was of shifting the track...if people (especially you because I value your opinions) thought it would shift back to the west or shift more easterly? That way I could make my decision on getting everything in at my own house (while I can)!

[cycloneye]

This is probably the most interesting part of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season for me.

I agree too.If not were for Ida,the season would go as below average and without fanfare although there were some good ones to track like Bill,Fred and Grace.Its going to close like a bang.

[jinftl]

Fresh off the presses....released it at 6:17pm....10 minutes ago.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1376

Evening update from Dr. Jeff Masters:


Jeff Masters[/i]

when was that..