ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Sabanic]

Enough to cause a big mess for sure

[Cookie]

can anyone help?

just watched fox news and they where talking about IDA.

it fox news in the uk the same as the fox news in the US?

[Ivanhater]

Would faster mean a farther west landfall though? Or just that it is feeling the trough quicker, IE further east landfall?

The trough is still to far. The faster she moves the less time the high moves off to the east. This has been the case the whole time, Ida has moved faster than forecast so the track kept shifting west

[Evil Jeremy]

I think that TS or Hurricane warnings should come up for the Gulf Coast in a couple hours.

[Aric Dunn]

You can really see the upper trof coming in from the west on the WV imagery now. Stronger southerly flow aloft is reaching Ida now. Big question remains - what will be left of Ida at landfall?

the shear is still decreasing out ahead of IDA !!

the trough in the west gulf is helping with that as an associated upper low has been moving in tandem with IDA fro 3 days and still is... until that changes upper environment is not changing much..

[tolakram]

Still expanding. Last fight perhaps.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[ROCK]

Looks like the WGOM low is on a collision course with IDA looking at WV....Also IMO, she out runs the SW and landfalls at a Cat 1-2...JMO

[tolakram]

You can really see the upper trof coming in from the west on the WV imagery now. Stronger southerly flow aloft is reaching Ida now. Big question remains - what will be left of Ida at landfall?

the shear is still decreasing out ahead of IDA !!

the trough in the west gulf is helping with that as an associated upper low has been moving in tandem with IDA fro 3 days and still is... until that changes upper environment is not changing much..

I just noticed that. Analyzed shear now the same as when Ida left the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

This is how much farther east she is still from the 18z guidance.. still east side of all guidance and right side of nhc cone.. east shift in track later most likely..

black circle.. current location.. ( sat image is old )

[marciacubed]

can anyone help?

just watched fox news and they where talking about IDA.

it fox news in the uk the same as the fox news in the US?

Does FOX News give you US news or UK news? Our Fox News gives US news predominately. I hope that helps.

[Ivanhater]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

[cycloneye]

Here are all the 18z runs of the globals and the 00z of the Bams.

[Javlin]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

We now have GFS,GFDL and HWRF all within 60 miles or so of each other and only 24-36 hrs out they are usually pretty accurate from this time frame.

[Evil Jeremy]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

It won't bring her completely back on the forecast track. She was supposed to be moving NW this entire time, and she was moving NNW. She would have to move WNW to get back on track.

[Cookie]

can anyone help?

just watched fox news and they where talking about IDA.

it fox news in the uk the same as the fox news in the US?

Does FOX News give you US news or UK news? Our Fox News gives US news predominately. I hope that helps.

its all us news, just SKY + 2 hrs of it, taped it.

first hour no mention of any hurricane then they mentioned it in the 2nd hour.

just wanted to see if its the exact same thing you get in the US

[smw1981]

Ahhhh...I don't want to go to sleep tonight because I don't want to miss any of the action! This board is so addictive because there are so many people with so many different opinions, most of whom have good reasons to back up their opinions!

[ROCK]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

yep I agree she is correcting herself. You also got to remember that the ridge she is riding is not exactly a smooth one. Ida does look nice though. Her buddy in the WGOM is helping her along the way it seems.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

sorry but the sat loops are very misleading and the expanding cdo is not the motion of the low level center... mine is based on recon fixes that have had motion of 340 to 350 all day... or NNW more north than NW ... not only that she has been on the east side of all models for 3 days.

[smw1981]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

We now have GFS,GFDL and HWRF all within 60 miles or so of each other and only 24-36 hrs out they are usually pretty accurate from this time frame.

What is the range (locations) within that 60 miles?

[wxman57]

You can really see the upper trof coming in from the west on the WV imagery now. Stronger southerly flow aloft is reaching Ida now. Big question remains - what will be left of Ida at landfall?

the shear is still decreasing out ahead of IDA !!

the trough in the west gulf is helping with that as an associated upper low has been moving in tandem with IDA fro 3 days and still is... until that changes upper environment is not changing much..

I just noticed that. Analyzed shear now the same as when Ida left the coast.

Don't look at the model forecasts, look at what's actually happening. You can see outflow now being restricted on Ida's west side as southerly flow aloft increases with the upper trof approaching.