ATL: INVEST (97L)

[jinftl]

Since Miami is at 80w and Tampa at about 82w, i know a recurve well east of 80w (east of east coast u.s. as well of course...lol) would be my vote after the 'no development' option. We don't want any system recurving over our heads!

:uarrow: IMO, I believe that trough will dig deep enough to pick up 97L if it has developed and turn it N before reaching 80W. If it does not develope then I believe the wave will continue on a more W course.

[rrm]

is gfs going to run today

[HURAKAN]

D-min hitting hard 97L. Lets see if D-max has something better in store.

[wxman57]

On visible loop. It looks to me that there is a LLC near 54.5W and 13N and it's racing ahead of the MLC back further SW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

That looks like it may be an outflow boundary from collapsed convection near the MLC.

Man, leave for an hour and the thing's really lost its convection now.

18Z GFDL just came out - dissipates it after 0hrs.

[RNGR]

not surprised the GFDL dissipates it, looking out around 59 or 60W you can see high clouds racing toward 97L.. looks like the shear is about to take control

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm....

WHXX04 KWBC 192322
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 52.2 270./21.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Aric Dunn]

On visible loop. It looks to me that there is a LLC near 54.5W and 13N and it's racing ahead of the MLC back further SW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

That looks like it may be an outflow boundary from collapsed convection near the MLC.

Man, leave for an hour and the thing's really lost its convection now.

18Z GFDL just came out - dissipates it after 0hrs.

it happens .. i see no outflow boundaries.. just convection-less bands rotating

at this stage in the game, its very common to have these systems pulse up and down .. not surprised it did so. it should begin to fire shortly

[Ed Mahmoud]

I figured it had a few more hours before hitting the shear and poofing. CIMSS shear products do show shear increasing in close proximity to the North and West, but I figured it had some more time.

A new little cell has popped near the MLC, but this is running out of time to get going.

[Aric Dunn]

and actually i would not be surprised to see the convection fire more near the western side and southern side and wrap around to the east... I find it funny that they do that .. makes people things like they have a mind of their own. somehow they seem to find there way, like they are making decisions lol ..and sometimes they fail

[Aric Dunn]

I figured it had a few more hours before hitting the shear and poofing. CIMSS shear products do show shear increasing in close proximity to the North and West, but I figured it had some more time.

A new little cell has popped near the MLC, but this is running out of time to get going.

its funny the same thing happened yesterday.. the wave in front of it flaired up and the cloud debris and outflow from that hit 97L and helped the convection fire last night then it lessened and retreated again ..and it again flared up and the cloud debris is about to hit 97L ..

but yeah running out of time for the moment.. forecast still calls for the shear to lessen again.

[jinftl]

Any system...esp weak and developing ones pulse diurnally....let's see how this looks in the morning before writing the obituary...keep in mind, this was the surprise 'comeback kid' earlier today....

[cycloneye]

Code Yellow

ABNT20 KNHC 192350
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF came out with nothing of significance.I guess we will have to wait for the 00z runs of both GFDL and HWRF to see if they have something more concrete.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

The convection appears to be moving on a more WNW path. I wonder if the MLC is racing W away from the convection causing the system to break down. There is a recent burst of convection, but if it is near the MLC then the MLC is closer to 13N that 12.2N.

[Blown Away]

Where is the 00z models?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 18N MOVG W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...
EXPECT A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE TO REACH THE ERN CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE.

$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 97, 2009072000, , BEST, 0, 125N, 538W, 25, 1011, DB

Moving a tad slower.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Model Suite

A little slower and moving 280 degrees.

520
WHXX01 KWBC 200026
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC MON JUL 20 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090720 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090720 0000 090720 1200 090721 0000 090721 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 53.8W 13.4N 57.5W 14.7N 61.1W 16.2N 65.1W
BAMD 12.5N 53.8W 12.9N 56.1W 13.5N 58.4W 14.0N 61.0W
BAMM 12.5N 53.8W 13.1N 56.7W 14.0N 59.6W 14.8N 62.8W
LBAR 12.5N 53.8W 13.2N 57.0W 14.3N 60.4W 15.5N 63.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090722 0000 090723 0000 090724 0000 090725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 68.7W 21.4N 75.6W 24.5N 79.5W 26.8N 80.6W
BAMD 14.6N 64.1W 15.7N 71.2W 16.3N 78.3W 15.9N 85.3W
BAMM 15.9N 66.3W 18.2N 73.6W 20.2N 79.7W 21.5N 84.3W
LBAR 16.9N 67.5W 20.2N 73.8W 22.8N 77.0W 25.6N 75.9W
SHIP 36KTS 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS
DSHP 36KTS 40KTS 43KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 53.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 50.3W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 46.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Blown Away]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 97, 2009072000, , BEST, 0, 125N, 538W, 25, 1011, DB

Seems that little burst of convection is on the W side of the best track point. At least we know the MLC is not running away from the convection. It's looks like the system has slowed a little.

[jinftl]

first rogue model run showing a south florida landfall for a system of the year...right over my head!!! Do we win a prize???

00 UTC Model Suite

A little slower and moving 280 degrees.

520
WHXX01 KWBC 200026
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC MON JUL 20 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090720 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090720 0000 090720 1200 090721 0000 090721 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 53.8W 13.4N 57.5W 14.7N 61.1W 16.2N 65.1W
BAMD 12.5N 53.8W 12.9N 56.1W 13.5N 58.4W 14.0N 61.0W
BAMM 12.5N 53.8W 13.1N 56.7W 14.0N 59.6W 14.8N 62.8W
LBAR 12.5N 53.8W 13.2N 57.0W 14.3N 60.4W 15.5N 63.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090722 0000 090723 0000 090724 0000 090725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 68.7W 21.4N 75.6W 24.5N 79.5W 26.8N 80.6W
BAMD 14.6N 64.1W 15.7N 71.2W 16.3N 78.3W 15.9N 85.3W
BAMM 15.9N 66.3W 18.2N 73.6W 20.2N 79.7W 21.5N 84.3W
LBAR 16.9N 67.5W 20.2N 73.8W 22.8N 77.0W 25.6N 75.9W
SHIP 36KTS 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS
DSHP 36KTS 40KTS 43KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 53.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 50.3W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 46.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM