WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 270612

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 27/0530Z

C. 15.3N

D. 143.8E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 90NM CDO YIELDS A 3.5 DT. MET
AGREES. PT YIELDS A 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SMITH

3.5? That should have a 55 KTS as of now.

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0921 MIRINAE (0921) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 14.9N 143.7E POOR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 16.2N 137.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 290600UTC 16.3N 131.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 300600UTC 16.6N 126.6E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[oaba09]

JMA finally upgraded it to a TS...

[oaba09]

Only GFS is showing a different path...........

[oaba09]

Still seems to be moving W to my eye.....

[metenthusiast]

Only GFS is showing a different path...........

Yes, and they're taking it up on every update. I can't seem to reconcile in my mind the reason behind this model of GFS. From what I've read, that rebuilding STR northwest of 23W would steer it towards a more westerly or even southwesterly track, hence the agreement of most of the other agencies with regards to forecast models for TS 23W.

Is this because that STR would not strengthen enough to be able to push the system West or SW?

[metenthusiast]

JMA's 5 day forecast track also pushes through with a westward track though position dates differ from those of JTWC.

[oaba09]

Only GFS is showing a different path...........

Yes, and they're taking it up on every update. I can't seem to reconcile in my mind the reason behind this model of GFS. From what I've read, that rebuilding STR northwest of 23W would steer it towards a more westerly or even southwesterly track, hence the agreement of most of the other agencies with regards to forecast models for TS 23W.

Is this because that STR would not strengthen enough to be able to push the system West or SW?

I believe in the "majority rule"...Since majority is showing a direct hit to central luzon, I think that's the model that we should follow(at least for now)....

[ManilaTC]

Here is another take on the models as of 00z (8am manila)

well take another look at the 12z (8pm) but it looks more of a short WNW track then a dip to the WSW.

Mostly west. too far to speculate yet.

[metenthusiast]

I believe in the "majority rule"...Since majority is showing a direct hit to central luzon, I think that's the model that we should follow(at least for now)....

That's right, and in this case I think the major agreement between forecast model agencies is that the factors that would drive 23W westward outweighs the ones that wouldn't. Though it's still early to tell and a lot of things could still happen (for the better, God willing). I guess the forecasts tomorrow or the next day would be more stable and could serve as a basis for our preparations here in the Metro.

[drdavisjr]

If I understand correctly, the models do not take into account human observation. They receive numbers as input and they output numbers.

[metenthusiast]

It's already 4:30 PM here in Manila but it's still stifling hot and the sun's beating down like it's the middle of March. If I were not here discussing this weather system with you guys, I wouldn't have a clue to the surprise coming on my way this weekend...

[oaba09]

If I understand correctly, the models do not take into account human observation. They receive numbers as input and they output numbers.

Yes for the computer models......I'm not sure but I think the final track forecast of agencies like JTWC and JMA involve human analysis(correct me if I'm wrong)......

[oaba09]

The system seems to still be moving wnw.....It's moving more west than north so right now, there's a slim chance of this system following the GFS model......

[drdavisjr]

If I understand correctly, the models do not take into account human observation. They receive numbers as input and they output numbers.

Yes for the computer models......I'm not sure but I think the final track forecast of agencies like JTWC and JMA involve human analysis(correct me if I'm wrong)......

Yes, I know JTWC does and I assume JMA does, too.

[drdavisjr]

It's already 4:30 PM here in Manila but it's still stifling hot and the sun's beating down like it's the middle of March. If I were not here discussing this weather system with you guys, I wouldn't have a clue to the surprise coming on my way this weekend...

Yes, PAGASA said this morning that the affected areas would be Eastern Visayas, Samar and Leyte.

[metenthusiast]

I think they already named 23W - Mirinae. It is a Republic of Korea (South) word meaning "Milky Way".

[cebuboy]

It's already 4:30 PM here in Manila but it's still stifling hot and the sun's beating down like it's the middle of March. If I were not here discussing this weather system with you guys, I wouldn't have a clue to the surprise coming on my way this weekend...

Agree, I also watch TV channels coming from Manila, seems to have guys are having a lot of fun (wowowie) and other entertainment channels. I think there is something Manila and Luzon guys to spend time with in the coming days instead of having a Halloween Party

Glad Cebu is always hot as it always been. Thank you my God.

[metenthusiast]

Latest multi-agency model forecast...

[cebuboy]

It's already 4:30 PM here in Manila but it's still stifling hot and the sun's beating down like it's the middle of March. If I were not here discussing this weather system with you guys, I wouldn't have a clue to the surprise coming on my way this weekend...

Yes, PAGASA said this morning that the affected areas would be Eastern Visayas, Samar and Leyte.

This is just confusing, it against the consensus. The track to the storm will pass Luzon. Why they say the Visayas are affected?