SIO: FANELE - Extratropical

[somethingfunny]

Looks to be getting its act together quickly!

[Crostorm]

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JAN 2009 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 21:23:37 S Lon : 41:37:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 946.6mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.3 5.6 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -22.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

Wooow
That is very rapid intensification

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is a solid Category 2 right now, probably around 90 kt. It is rapidly intensifying.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JAN 2009 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 21:16:26 S Lon : 41:39:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 938.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.6 5.6 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -22.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

713
WTIO30 FMEE 200012

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/7/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 41.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 20.4S/42.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 22.5S/45.2E OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.4S/47.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 24.2S/48.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 25.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
FANELE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW
EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING
HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND
SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD VERY
CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

ERC underway?

[somethingfunny]

ERC underway?

It could be upwelling. This storm hasn't moved a whole lot over the past few days. Fanele may have just reached her peak.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 20:45:06 S Lon : 42:12:46 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 944.7mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.4 4.8 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.9C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

20/0300 UTC 20.6S 42.0E T5.5/5.5 FANELE -- Southwest Indian

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

870
WTIO30 FMEE 200625

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/7/20082009
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 0600 UTC :
20.5S / 42.3E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 20.1S/43.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 21.1S/44.5E OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 22.3S/45.8E OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 23.6S/48.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 24.5S/49.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 25.6S/50.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=5.5+
FANELE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW
EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING
HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND
SPEED. HOWEVER A LANDFALL IS EXPECTED UP TO TAU 18 SOUTH TO THE MORONDAVE
/MOROMBE AREA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MALAGASY ISLAND AND EXIT OVER SEAS UP TO
TAU 48H, WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.



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