SPO: JONI - Tropical Cyclone (20P)

[HURAKAN]

Nice microwave, unimpressive satellite image.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Still got a very good circulation looking at that imagery Hurakan but it does seem to be starting to reduce in terms of deep convection.

[Chacor]

TCSTORM WARNING 217
This affects ocean area(s): PACIFIC
AT 130000UTC

STORM WARNING 217
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Tropical Cyclone JONI [980hPa] centre was located near 25.6 South 159.3 West at 130000 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 25.6S 159.3W at 130000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving south 7 knots but expected to be moving southsouthwest 12 knots at 131200 UTC.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre easing to 50 knots by 131200 UTC and then easing to 45 knots by 140000 UTC.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 30 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 miles of centre in the southeast semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northwest semicircle.

Forecast position near 27.8S 159.6W at 131200 UTC
and near 31.8S 160.2W at 140000 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 216.

Issued at 00:28:32Z on 13-Mar-2009

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (JONI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (JONI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 24.9S 159.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 159.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.4S 159.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.6S 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 34.5S 158.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 159.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (JONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT FLOW AT THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS AS THE LARGE WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST TRACKS EASTWARD
INTO THE RIDGING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF JONI. TC 20P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BUT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE GRADIENT FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT JONI HAS BENEFITTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM DUAL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS QUICKLY
TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD JONI AND WILL BEGIN TO HINDER OUTFLOW IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD OVER TC 20P LEADING TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CURRENTLY JONI IS IN FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL TRACK
INTO MUCH COOLER, LESS FAVORABLE WATERS FURTHER HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT AND ULTIMATELY LEADING TO SYSTEM DISSIPATION. THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.

[Chacor]

293
WTNZ41 NZKL 130658
STORM WARNING 221
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI 980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0 SOUTH
160.0 WEST AT 130600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 27.0S 160.0W AT 130600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 48 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 30.0S 160.0W AT 131800 UTC
AND NEAR 34.0S 159.0W AT 140600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 217.

[Chacor]

WTNZ41 NZKL 131256
STORM WARNING 226
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI 980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1 SOUTH
158.7 WEST AT 131200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 28.1S 158.7W AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 50
KNOTS BETWEEN 140000 UTC AND 141200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 48 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 30.6S 159.2W AT 140000 UTC
AND NEAR 33.3S 159.3W AT 141200 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 221.

[HURAKAN]