CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[HURAKAN]

208
WHXX01 KMIA 041834
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC TUE AUG 4 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090804 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090804 1800 090805 0600 090805 1800 090806 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 126.1W 13.0N 127.7W 14.0N 129.3W 15.1N 130.5W
BAMD 12.2N 126.1W 13.1N 128.2W 13.9N 129.9W 14.6N 131.4W
BAMM 12.2N 126.1W 13.2N 127.6W 14.2N 128.9W 15.3N 130.0W
LBAR 12.2N 126.1W 13.3N 128.5W 14.6N 130.9W 16.0N 133.0W
SHIP 65KTS 83KTS 94KTS 101KTS
DSHP 65KTS 83KTS 94KTS 101KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090806 1800 090807 1800 090808 1800 090809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 131.9W 17.4N 135.8W 18.8N 141.4W 19.6N 147.1W
BAMD 15.0N 132.9W 15.3N 136.7W 16.1N 141.8W 16.9N 147.0W
BAMM 16.3N 131.5W 17.8N 135.8W 18.9N 141.7W 19.3N 147.9W
LBAR 17.1N 135.2W 18.3N 139.3W 18.4N 144.1W 17.0N 149.4W
SHIP 101KTS 90KTS 78KTS 66KTS
DSHP 101KTS 90KTS 78KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 126.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 123.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 121.1W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

I see you.

[RL3AO]

[CrazyC83]

I'd guess it to be about 75 kt right now. SHIPS now brings it up to a major hurricane.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS has a hit on Hawai'i in 6 1/2 days...

hard to tell how strong exactly GFS thinks Felicia will be...





But I'd guess below hurricane strength.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BTW, WxMan57 notes oceanic heat content number goes to zero at the end of the SHIPs run. But SST stays around 26ºC. A little cool, but no mondo-frigid, and I can recall discussions where tropical cyclones over 25º water maintained. I think the formula for oceanic heat content, probably based on an integration of depth of the 26º isotherm subsurface and SST, may be a tad over simplistic.


Yes, I know systems approaching Hawai'i form the due East due feel some effect of less than toasty water, but I'd argue that a cyclone over 26º water derives no energy at all from the ocean.

Code: Select all

  *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *     FELICIA  EP082009  08/04/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    50    57    63    68    73    82    85    85    80    77    73    69    63
V (KT) LAND       50    57    63    68    73    82    85    85    80    77    73    69    63
V (KT) LGE mod    50    58    65    71    76    82    82    79    73    68    63    60    57

SHEAR (KT)        13    12    12     9     9    10    13    11     6     6     2     5     5
SHEAR DIR         66    53    81    94    91    98    52    62    60    49    29   113    97
SST (C)         28.8  28.7  28.7  28.6  28.4  27.8  27.1  26.7  26.2  25.6  25.7  26.0  26.0
POT. INT. (KT)   153   152   152   150   148   143   135   130   126   121   122   124   124
200 MB T (C)   -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     5     4     4     4     4     4     4     5
700-500 MB RH     70    67    65    68    67    68    63    64    61    59    54    54    54
GFS VTEX (KT)     11    11    12    11    11    14    15    16    14    14    13    13    13
850 MB ENV VOR    72    61    55    48    44    42    49    49    33    29    29    19    20
200 MB DIV        40    30    41    66    39    75    37    14    12     4    -9     9    -7
LAND (KM)       1946  1987  2034  2067  2098  2135  2254  2165  1960  1667  1267   966   741
LAT (DEG N)     12.0  12.5  13.0  13.5  14.0  15.0  15.9  16.3  16.6  17.1  17.8  17.8  17.2
LONG(DEG W)    124.9 126.0 127.1 128.0 128.8 130.4 132.7 134.6 136.5 139.2 142.9 145.8 148.2
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    11    10     9    11    11     9    11    16    16    12    12
HEAT CONTENT      38    40    47    41    41    39    23    12     3     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  448  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  12.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  87.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   7.   9.  10.  11.  10.   9.   8.   6.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  10.  10.   9.   8.
  PERSISTENCE            4.   7.   8.   9.   9.   8.   7.   5.   5.   5.   4.   2.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -9.  -8.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   4.   6.   7.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           7.  13.  18.  23.  32.  35.  35.  30.  27.  23.  19.  14.

   ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009    FELICIA 08/04/09  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  20.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  11.0 Range: 15.2 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  43.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 101.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.6
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  75.6 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.2 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  41.4 Range:  4.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    37% is   3.2 times the sample mean(11.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    31% is   4.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    29% is   5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009    FELICIA 08/04/09  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

 
 
 


[cycloneye]

Hurricane Felicia forecast to become a major hurricane

617
WTPZ33 KNHC 042031
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

...FELICIA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST OR ABOUT
1315 MILES...2115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND FELICIA COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.4N 126.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTPZ43 KNHC 042033
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE
AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
1800 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT BUT SINCE THAT TIME... THE
EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT...MAKING FELICIA THE THIRD HURRICANE
OF THE 2009 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IN A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE TODAY...AND
WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING...THE QUESTION IS: HOW STRONG WILL IT GET? THE
PRESENCE OF AN EYE ON BOTH THE 85 AND 37 GHZ CHANNELS OF A 1547 UTC
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS MORE STRENGTHENING...EVEN A
CONTINUATION OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO FORECASTS A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...ABOUT 8 TIMES THE SAMPLE
MEAN. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN ON SHIPS AND THE MICROWAVE DATA TO
FORECAST RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LEVEL
OFF THE WINDS THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS. IN THE LONGER-TERM...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR MAY
ALSO HELP TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.

FELICIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...280/12. A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DUE TO A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FELICIA TO MOVE
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENRIQUE TO CAUSE FURTHER RIDGE WEAKENING...
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF
FELICIA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THE UKMET/NOGAPS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NONE. FOR
NOW...I'M GOING TO LEAN ON THE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS MORE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES JUST SOUTH
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 12.4N 126.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 13.0N 128.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 13.9N 130.1W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 14.7N 131.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 15.5N 133.3W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 142.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 148.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Iune]

This morning:

10-12 hours later:

This does not take its own time like Carlos.

[Ptarmigan]

Enrique and Felicia have formed in the East Pacific. Felicia is forecasted to become a major hurricane, a first for that basin.

Felicia
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Cookie]

wow this is really excting and intresting! this is why I love hurricanes

[MGC]

I would not be surprised if Felicia comes very close to the Hawaiian Islands. Enrique should weaken the ridge allowing Felicia to track more northward. I doubt they do a classic fujiwhara. Felicia has the look of a potential major hurricane......MGC

[Macrocane]

Enrique and Felicia have formed in the East Pacific. Felicia is forecasted to become a major hurricane, a first for that basin.

Felicia
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

The first official one, but the true intensity of Carlos is somewhat uncertain.

[Macrocane]

wow this is really excting and intresting! this is why I love hurricanes

I agree with you, especially when they are powerful, beautiful and they don't bother anyone.

[Derek Ortt]

Felicia could struggle big time

The size of Enrique could divert much of Felicia's inflow into Enrique. Would be very good if this happens as if not, Felicia with the low shear could tranform to an annular hurricane voer the cooler waters, like Flossie did

[neospaceblue]

The first official one, but the true intensity of Carlos is somewhat uncertain.

What do you mean by that?

[HURAKAN]

The first official one, but the true intensity of Carlos is somewhat uncertain.

What do you mean by that?

At its strongest, Carlos could have been a major hurricane.

[brunota2003]

not to burst anyone's bubble...but Felicia has to make it to Category 3 first before you can say "officially" it is the first Major for the EPac...currently, there is still 31 mph between it currently, and it being a Major.

[JonathanBelles]

Wow! I didnt expect this to be forecast a MH especially with Enrique right next door. Very interesting forecast.

[Macrocane]

not to burst anyone's bubble...but Felicia has to make it to Category 3 first before you can say "officially" it is the first Major for the EPac...currently, there is still 31 mph between it currently, and it being a Major.

Nobody has said that Felicia is already an official major hurricane, just that if it becomes one, it would be the first official major hurricane of the season

[Derek Ortt]

I'd be surprised if it does become one. The dynamical models do not show intensification. SHIPS has no knowledge of Enrique

I do not foresee much if any additional intensification unless Enrique weakens or suddenly starts moving away (or slows down)