ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater over 92L.

[Dean4Storms]

Convection certainly has increased but it still lacks any organization to this point. It also seems to have slowed in its westward movement, what is up with that?

[Derek Ortt]

the wave hasnt slowed one bit. That is just the convection being sheared to the east

[Derek Ortt]

there is also no significant nrotherly component

again, do not follow the convection, follow the surface feature

[KWT]

Yeah that would make sense Derek, still this is one to watch in a few days time. I'm still seeing a rough WNW motion but its hard to tell becuase of the sheared convection.

Deltadog, yeah most models seem to be showing a certain amount of favorability alot near the Bahamas.

[OuterBanker]

Sure enough, GFS doesn't see it al all. But European, Canadian, UKMET all see it. The CMC is the strongest, but they develop about 100 hurricanes a year anyway. I don't think this will develop until 70 west anyway. This year will be clear for anything below 20 N also I think. Strangely enough, the EPAC is the same way.

BTW, we were out of town this weekend and we were afraid that our nephew would go surfing Saturday. He went, but though better of it and didn't hit the water. But he surfed what turned out to be perfect surf all day Sunday. Perfect 6 and 8 ft tubes and clean.

[KWT]

12z GFS takes this out to sea...BUT it starts developing this system near 30N, which is quite a bit further north of where all the other models are progging this to set-up, so the GFS may not be getting a good grip on the location of this system IMO.

[KWT]

As I said in the model threar Gatorcane it seems like the GFS is quite a good deal too far north with where it starts developing this system, its hard to see this being near 30N by 60hrs...that would be pretty much NW from where it is now which is unlikely IMO.

[otowntiger]

there is also no significant nrotherly component

again, do not follow the convection, follow the surface feature

Ok, I'll go with what you say Derek. I just didn't know there was really a surface feature that was dicernable either way. So there is a surface low and some spinning action going on that I can't see? If so approximately where is it?

Thanks.

[deltadog03]

GFS looks a little lost on this so far.

[cycloneye]

Look way down to 17N 56W.

[GeneratorPower]

Definately looking for the EURO's opinion on this one. That's a pretty big blow up of convection, and it looks to me like the ULL to its NW is winding down a bit.

[Sanibel]

Y'all know this is on the Floater, right?


What is that crazy fast-moving outflow boundary?

[Dean4Storms]

You're right Derek, should have known better. That first glance at visibles can be misleading.

[Derek Ortt]

CMC looks to have something like a cat 4 into DC

[cycloneye]

Here is what Derek is talking about.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[wxman57]

Plenty of surface obs in the region. Definitely just a wave axis. No surface turning.

[Derek Ortt]

Sure enough, GFS doesn't see it al all. But European, Canadian, UKMET all see it. The CMC is the strongest, but they develop about 100 hurricanes a year anyway. I don't think this will develop until 70 west anyway. This year will be clear for anything below 20 N also I think. Strangely enough, the EPAC is the same way.

BTW, we were out of town this weekend and we were afraid that our nephew would go surfing Saturday. He went, but though better of it and didn't hit the water. But he surfed what turned out to be perfect surf all day Sunday. Perfect 6 and 8 ft tubes and clean.

will you please stop saying the CMC develops 100 canes a year. That simply is NOT TRUE

[Derek Ortt]

the wave axis is very weak at the present time

cannot see this doing much, if anything, before late wednesday or thursday

[BatzVI]

Derek...just curious as to what you think the effects will be in the northern islands (STT, PR)...I'm guessing just about as much as we got from Ana....few gusty winds and lots of rain....