ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[DESTRUCTION5]

highly doubt this will be a fish

remember, fish means hitting no land. it has land right on its track!

Has to be a named storm when it hits land, though. Otherwise, no wave coming off Africa could ever be called a fish because they produced storm in Africa.

Doesn't it(COC) have to go directly over the tiny island to be considered landfall too? and a non fish?

[cycloneye]

Code red at 8?

[Cryomaniac]

Code red at 8?

I would think so.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This one looks like a go....Prob named by tomorrow at 5pm but...thats JMHO

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[expat2carib]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...AND THE ITCZ SECTION


.................................................................................................
THE HURRICANE SPECIALISTS ALREADY HAVE PROCLAIMED THAT THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MT

Poor MT on her/his "easy sunday" watch.

Oh my god what shall I do? Call Derek and wxman57 says the cleaning lady. Thanks I call them .....................and what's the outcome?

THE HURRICANE SPECIALISTS ALREADY HAVE PROCLAIMED THAT THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Isn't MT the specialist?

[hurricanetrack]

Now watch, with all the early models showing the door to this system, it will be the one that comes back west along 22N and hits the East Coast in 12 days or so. Not saying this will happen but why not? Would really make this a year to remember, eh?

[Derek Ortt]

if this hits land besides the CV islands, it will likely be Spain or Portugal

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak.

06/2345 UTC 12.9N 19.9W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 96, 2009090700, , BEST, 0, 126N, 196W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Bam Models

Moving west at 270 degrees.

WHXX01 KWBC 070044
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC MON SEP 7 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962009) 20090907 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090907 0000 090907 1200 090908 0000 090908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 19.6W 13.0N 22.9W 13.2N 26.2W 13.1N 29.9W
BAMD 12.6N 19.6W 12.9N 22.4W 13.3N 25.1W 14.0N 27.7W
BAMM 12.6N 19.6W 12.8N 22.5W 13.2N 25.3W 13.7N 28.3W
LBAR 12.6N 19.6W 12.7N 22.9W 13.1N 26.5W 13.6N 29.9W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090909 0000 090910 0000 090911 0000 090912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 33.7W 12.6N 38.1W 13.0N 37.0W 14.0N 32.1W
BAMD 14.7N 30.2W 17.3N 34.4W 20.5N 36.2W 23.3N 36.5W
BAMM 14.2N 31.2W 15.7N 36.0W 17.4N 37.3W 19.2N 35.6W
LBAR 14.4N 33.0W 16.5N 37.4W 19.9N 38.1W 24.4N 38.2W
SHIP 65KTS 78KTS 78KTS 73KTS
DSHP 65KTS 78KTS 78KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 19.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 16.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 10.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Macrocane]

It looks really good at this time, it should have been code red IMO, but perhaps the NHC is waiting for convection to persist. The only problem I see is dry air to it's north but if it stays south or if it recurves it stays west of the SAL it will be in a favorable environment.

[cycloneye]

GFS Ensembles

[Derek Ortt]

OK... didn't expect to see that from the ensembles

however, the GFS ensemble is the worst ensemble there is

[jinftl]

NOAA graphic....they seem fairly bullish on 96L developing...




96L is looking very impressive.....moving west...appears to have banding structure (at least on satellite presentation):

[Gustywind]

What's the matter with the latest TWD? NHC has not issued yet...or it's me? Where are they? in holidays?

[cycloneye]

What's the matter with the latest TWD? NHC has not issued yet...or it's me? Where are they? in holidays?

This is the 8 PM EDT Discussion.The time is wrong but UTC time is right 18:00 UTC analysis.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1008 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N19W. A LARGE SSMI
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA W OF 25W BETWEEN 5N-19N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 17W-22W.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

[expat2carib]

What's the matter with the latest TWD? NHC has not issued yet...or it's me? Where are they? in holidays?

Labor day weekend, No TC allowed.

[Blown Away]

Noticed 96L is moving 20mph compared to previous east Atlantic waves which moved at the 10-15mph. Is the Bermuda/Azores High a little stronger?

[Gustywind]

What's the matter with the latest TWD? NHC has not issued yet...or it's me? Where are they? in holidays?

This is the 8 PM EDT Discussion.The time is wrong but UTC time is right 18:00 UTC analysis.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1008 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N19W. A LARGE SSMI
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA W OF 25W BETWEEN 5N-19N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 17W-22W.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

Tkanks Luis i noticied that, but but... why don't they correct it? Surely they don't read their own weather forecast Humm 96L is so impressive so they're amazed too... that's why !