WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)

[cycloneye]

Choi-wan continues to get organized rather quickly.

[JTE50]

Lots of warm water along the track. Probably going to be a Supertyphoon down the road.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMVS.JPG

[cycloneye]

0300z Advisory from JTWC=45kts

PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 150.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 150.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.2N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.4N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.0N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.8N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.4N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.4N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.0N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 149.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

I think this could be a threat to Japan further down the road.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 130333
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
200 PM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009

...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
INTENSIFYING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
AGRIHAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW CANCELLED FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.6 DEGREES EAST.
POSITION ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 0000Z WARNING POSITION BASED
ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY.

THIS IS ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
265 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
315 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
360 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. GENERAL
MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 149.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM.

$$

CHAN/MUNDELL/EDSON

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php

[StormingB81]

I know I will be keeping an eye on it being in Okinawa. It could be an interesting weekend next weekend. You know Ive said I would love to see a typhoon but man I think this may go into one of those be careful what you wish for I mean it could be a MAJOR MAJOR Typhoon if it comes. I mean anywhere here in japan it could be a big storm.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

I think that dry air has wrapped around the center and the outflow pattern is still restricted on the eastern semi-circle, but I guess it's just a question of time to get over those problems and then it will be a very impressive storm.

[cycloneye]

WTPQ31 PGUM 130920
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
800 PM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009

...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AND MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
AGRIHAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
220 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
270 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
320 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHOI-WAN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS A LITTLE NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS/STANKO

[cycloneye]

0900z Advisory by JTWC=55kts


PN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 149.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 149.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.0N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.4N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.0N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.4N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.2N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 148.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS
WRAPPING INTO DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
OVERHEAD. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 130530Z HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130410Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO JAPAN WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND
ENABLE TS 15W TO RESUME ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 120,
HENCE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG TYPHOON.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 36, THEN DEVIATES TO
THE RIGHT, FAVORING ECMWF AND JGSM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z
AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Eye seems to be trying to form as well.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.0N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.2N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.3N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.3N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.8N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 148.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED AND ON THE VERGE OF DEVELOPING AN EYE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Do the squadron in the Western Pacific fly to systems that are a threat to the Mariana islands?

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 991
WTPQ20 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 15.7N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 16.9N 146.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 151200UTC 19.1N 143.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 161200UTC 20.5N 139.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 131533 RRA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
200 AM CHST MON SEP 14 2009

...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN INTENSIFYING AND APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
AGRIHAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.4 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
245 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
295 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHOI-WAN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS A LITTLE NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 5 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 8 AM.

$$

WILLIAMS/MCELROY

[HURAKAN]

Looking like a typhoon

[CrazyC83]

I'm sure JMA will upgrade it to an STS at the next update.

[HURAKAN]

Solid eye-wall

[RattleMan]

WTPQ20 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 15.6N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 17.3N 146.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 151800UTC 19.3N 143.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 161800UTC 20.7N 139.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =