WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[cycloneye]

Eye popping out.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a typhoon

[StormingB81]

I think alot of people needs to be watching this storm with the track possible going from Okinawa to the Phillipenes. and man The Phillipenes and Taiwan have already been hit hard this year you hope it turns away from them. Then 20w looks like it wantto come to those neck of the woods. Going to be a busy couple of weeks.

[HURAKAN]

29/2030 UTC 8.5N 137.2E T3.5/3.5 PARMA -- West Pacific

55 knots. Disagree here

[cycloneye]

29/2030 UTC 8.5N 137.2E T3.5/3.5 PARMA -- West Pacific

55 knots. Disagree here

That was released before the eye popped out.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 323
WTPQ21 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 08.3N 137.0E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 302100UTC 11.1N 133.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 011800UTC 14.2N 130.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 021800UTC 17.0N 128.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

29/2030 UTC 8.5N 137.2E T3.5/3.5 PARMA -- West Pacific

55 knots. Disagree here

That was released before the eye popped out.

Maybe they should have used this microwave pic

[cycloneye]

Looks like a typhoon

JTWC may be looking at those microvave pics Next 0300z warning will be at 65kts as its now at NRL.

[HURAKAN]

TPPN12 PGTW 300009

A. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 9.0N

D. 136.8E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CONVECTION WRAPS 1.05 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A 4.0 DT. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SMITH

[StormingB81]

Phillipines website is calling it a typhoon now. see what JTWC calls it here in bout a half an hour with there advisory.

[cycloneye]

JTWC Upgrades to Typhoon at 65kts

WTPN33 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 9.0N 136.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 136.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 10.5N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 12.2N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.5N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.9N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.5N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 136.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TYPHOON BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY PGTW, RJTD
AND KNES ALONG WITH A MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE FEATURE SEEN IN A 292056Z
SSMI IMAGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[StormingB81]

With the new warning out by JTWC this could be ANOTHER SUPER typhoon wow! 110 Knots (126 mph) by the 5th! gonna be close.

[cycloneye]

Okinawa may be close to the track.

[Aslkahuna]

Yes, this one needs to be watched closely as it is moving into the climatologically favored area where explosive development can occur and this is also the favored time of year.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Not an official typhoon, JMA still calls it a TS

[StormingB81]

We have an eye on it just in case so we can prepare for it and not be fooled if it turns our way.

[cycloneye]

JMA still calls it a TS

A TS with an eye I am sure JMA will catchup with JTWC and upgrade early tommorow.

[Macrocane]

With the new warning out by JTWC this could be ANOTHER SUPER typhoon wow! 110 Knots (126 mph) by the 5th! gonna be close.

I think that a supertyphoon is very possible, but it won't be that close, a super typhoon has winds of 130 kt.

[Derek Ortt]

keep in mind that JMA is 10 minute winds. A JMA typhoon is the equivalent of about 75KT

[StormingB81]

I know I was saying though it has a chance. But this one is a little different then Choi-Wan. If this becomes a Super Typhoon it will do alot more damage then Choi wan. ALOT more land in the way.