ATL: INVEST (97L)

[Blown Away]

I can't think of anybody on this board that is saying 97L is a sure thing to develope. I think we all are enjoying having something to watch and talk about, I know I am. 97L was weak to begin with and gulped some dry air this afternoon and is slowly building back some convection around it's MLC tonight. Shear is forecasted to be marginal over the next few days and maybe something will form.

[Night Tide]

Hi all

Well, even if it gets blown away, it's done better for itself than I thought it would. Just goes to show Mother Nature always has surprises in store.

[cycloneye]

97L is a good fighter,as it trys to get some convection back.

[Gustywind]

From NRL site: 1930 UTC: 12,2 N 52,5W 25 kts 1012 mb
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

Latest from NRL site: 02 UTC
-12,5 NORTH 53,8 WEST
-Winds 25 kts
- Pressure 1011 mb (seems to have lost 1 mb during the last 8 hours from always NRL with my untrained eyesor my eyes are deceiving me /precedent updating 1012)
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[Gustywind]

Good night all, to stay in the eyes...right now my eyes are jumping out, going into my bed Let's see in next hours what happens with our guest-warrior 97L

[lrak]

Sure looks like a nice little burst of convection right over where it looks like it should be, maybe its a fighter

[Sanibel]

Poof. Too weak, too early.

Still some spin but the Caribbean usually rips these sparse types apart. Interesting ghost system again.

[cheezyWXguy]

Poof. Too weak, too early.

Still some spin but the Caribbean usually rips these sparse types apart. Interesting ghost system again.

lol say what you want, but it's certainly not dead. Its just now flaring again, and its something to be watched in the next few days.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like some a hint of deeper convection is re-firing. This system is not done teasing us yet.

[floridasun78]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200546
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[abajan]

Looks like some a hint of deeper convection is re-firing. This system is not done teasing us yet.

Yes, the convection is re-firing but the spin is dying.
Looks like we in the Lesser Antilles (beginning with Barbados) should be gettin' some heavy duty rain and thunderstorms from 97L later.

[Nimbus]

The convection is firing in the northern quadrants only fanned from the TUTT. It did look like there were some low clouds being pulled north in the IR imagery. That would be consistent with low level winds on the back side of a sharp wave or a LLC. If there was any low level circulation we should see the remnants in the first visible images this morning. By the time the shear lets up 97L will be in the eastern Caribbean. Historically storms that have not developed before they reach the eastern Caribbean don't develop there, and once the TUTT stops fanning the convection this system will likely no longer be an invest.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN CLUSTERS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

$$
MT

[caribsue]

Looks like some a hint of deeper convection is re-firing. This system is not done teasing us yet.

Yes, the convection is re-firing but the spin is dying.
Looks like we in the Lesser Antilles (beginning with Barbados) should be gettin' some heavy duty rain and thunderstorms from 97L later.

Good Morning All from a very wet Barbados. Skies are grey and thunder is rumbling no wind to speak of as of yet.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200719
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 AM AST MON JUL 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY LITTLE POSITION VARIABILITY AND REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS...COUPLED WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR
PANAMA...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SURFACE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS FLOW...THE GFS FORECAST
SOLUTIONS TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY. THE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AS PER
MIMIC-TPW TECHNIQUES AND THE 20/0000Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATE
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
/MACM-ST. MAARTEN AND MKPB-BARBADOS/ INDICATE THAT DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR SHOULD BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

AS THIS NEW TROPICAL WAVE ADVANCES...IT HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AS
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN
MIAMI...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE /LESS THAN 30 PERCENT/ OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF CYCLONE FORMATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL RAINS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE WAVE SHOULD STILL BE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN
THE PREFERRED WINDWARD/LEEWARD REGIONS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE. AFTERWARDS...THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND LOOK FAIRLY DECENT...WITH
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL/DIURNAL MESOSCALE EFFECTS DRIVING THE WEATHER.

WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OUT IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...IT IS TOO EARLY TO FORECAST ITS EXACT
LOCATION FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT
APPEARS THE WAVE STAYS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING SHRA WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJPS UNTIL 20/0900Z.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL
TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES AFTER 20/0900Z. AFTER 20/1700Z AND UNTIL
AT LEAST 20/2200Z...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 79 86 79 / 60 40 60 40
STT 89 80 88 79 / 70 50 50 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

72/02

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN CLUSTERS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...
JUST TO THE EAST OF BARBADOS. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 29N58W TO 17N58W TO 13N57W.

$$
MT

[HURAKAN]

First visible

[bvigal]

Shear is the story. Looks like some good rain and GUSTYWIND for Barbados