ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[cyclonic chronic]

You can already see the shear in front of Fred.

i agree, the window for intensification to a cat. 3 is closing by the hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goeseast/catl/loop-wv.html

is that the invest from the wave before fred's thats getting ripped-up by the shear to the n.w. of fred?

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2009 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 13:22:38 N Lon : 32:02:01 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.3mb/102.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.5 6.1 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -5.7C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[brunota2003]

Not official, just a guess:

I'm guessing winds of 120 mph and a pressure of 957 at 11 am.

[cycloneye]

I dont look what is ahead,but I track what is now there until it lasts to see how mother nature works.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track=Major Cane at 105kts

AL, 07, 2009090912, , BEST, 0, 135N, 321W, 105, 958, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2009 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 13:31:23 N Lon : 31:59:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 958.4mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.7 6.1 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +3.1C Cloud Region Temp : -65.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 091243
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC WED SEP 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED (AL072009) 20090909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090909 1200 090910 0000 090910 1200 090911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 32.1W 14.8N 34.5W 15.6N 36.6W 15.8N 37.8W
BAMD 13.5N 32.1W 14.7N 33.9W 15.8N 35.3W 17.2N 35.9W
BAMM 13.5N 32.1W 14.5N 34.1W 15.3N 35.5W 16.1N 36.0W
LBAR 13.5N 32.1W 14.8N 33.8W 16.2N 35.7W 17.8N 37.0W
SHIP 105KTS 110KTS 103KTS 93KTS
DSHP 105KTS 110KTS 103KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090911 1200 090912 1200 090913 1200 090914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 38.2W 13.4N 38.1W 12.2N 37.2W 12.4N 38.1W
BAMD 18.5N 35.7W 21.4N 33.3W 26.0N 32.9W 28.9N 32.5W
BAMM 16.5N 35.8W 17.2N 33.4W 19.8N 33.0W 23.2N 34.9W
LBAR 18.7N 37.3W 21.4N 37.7W 24.9N 35.4W 28.5N 32.1W
SHIP 81KTS 56KTS 32KTS 17KTS
DSHP 81KTS 56KTS 32KTS 17KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 32.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 30.1W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 28.0W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 958MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

[wxman57]

105 kts now:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED (AL072009) 20090909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090909 1200 090910 0000 090910 1200 090911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 32.1W 14.8N 34.5W 15.6N 36.6W 15.8N 37.8W
BAMD 13.5N 32.1W 14.7N 33.9W 15.8N 35.3W 17.2N 35.9W
BAMM 13.5N 32.1W 14.5N 34.1W 15.3N 35.5W 16.1N 36.0W
LBAR 13.5N 32.1W 14.8N 33.8W 16.2N 35.7W 17.8N 37.0W
SHIP 105KTS 110KTS 103KTS 93KTS
DSHP 105KTS 110KTS 103KTS 93KTS

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  FRED        AL072009  09/09/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)         4     9    10     8     6    13    17    20    25    23    32    41    31
SHEAR DIR        269   261   229   259   189   222   221   214   241   220   233   235   247
SST (C)         27.8  27.8  27.6  27.5  27.3  26.9  26.7  26.6  26.5  26.3  26.1  26.0  26.0


Poor Fred

[DESTRUCTION5]

105 kts now:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED (AL072009) 20090909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090909 1200 090910 0000 090910 1200 090911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 32.1W 14.8N 34.5W 15.6N 36.6W 15.8N 37.8W
BAMD 13.5N 32.1W 14.7N 33.9W 15.8N 35.3W 17.2N 35.9W
BAMM 13.5N 32.1W 14.5N 34.1W 15.3N 35.5W 16.1N 36.0W
LBAR 13.5N 32.1W 14.8N 33.8W 16.2N 35.7W 17.8N 37.0W
SHIP 105KTS 110KTS 103KTS 93KTS
DSHP 105KTS 110KTS 103KTS 93KTS

6/2/2...Right on schedule....

[HURAKAN]

Up close

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[cycloneye]

Beautiful storm

As I said earlier,lets enjoy it while it lasts.2009 season not bad after all,6/2/2 and there is still plenty of season left.

[Frank2]

Bye, Fred - I'd say "next" but there ain't a next ATTM (bad English but you get the idea)...

Frank

[Gustywind]

Beautiful storm

As I said earlier,lets enjoy it while it lasts.2009 season not bad after all,6/2/2 and there is still plenty of season left.

Asbolutely you make sense Luis anything can happen and 3 more big weeks ahead for the CV systems.

[CrazyC83]

Strange to see such a strong hurricane so far east...I'd say 110 kt right now. Obviously he got a memo from his wife Wilma overnight...

[Blown Away]

Nice looking hurricane and I agree we had better enjoy Fred while he is here.

[HURAKAN]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2009 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 13:37:08 N Lon : 32:06:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 956.0mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.8 6.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -0.8C Cloud Region Temp : -64.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Could the Azores ultimately be in its path?

[CrazyC83]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  FRED        AL072009  09/09/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)         4     9    10     8     6    13    17    20    25    23    32    41    31
SHEAR DIR        269   261   229   259   189   222   221   214   241   220   233   235   247
SST (C)         27.8  27.8  27.6  27.5  27.3  26.9  26.7  26.6  26.5  26.3  26.1  26.0  26.0


Poor Fred

Still has about 24 hours of excellent conditions though, and not until 84 hours do they get really hostile for such a strong storm. If it can go through an ERC before then and get larger, it might be able to overcome the shear like Bill did.