ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100208
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 12 20091110
020100 2858N 08848W 8433 01474 9973 +213 +062 247026 027 004 004 03
020130 2900N 08848W 8429 01478 9975 +208 +063 242023 025 000 004 03
020200 2902N 08848W 8430 01475 9979 +198 +063 222019 020 000 003 00
020230 2904N 08848W 8425 01480 9973 +205 +062 222019 020 000 003 00
020300 2905N 08848W 8430 01474 9975 +202 +062 231014 020 001 002 03
020330 2907N 08848W 8428 01474 9974 +201 +062 225007 009 000 002 03
020400 2909N 08849W 8432 01469 9970 +207 +062 199004 007 011 002 00
020430 2910N 08849W 8428 01473 9968 +206 +061 099005 010 006 003 00
020500 2911N 08850W 8423 01477 9968 +209 +059 046013 017 007 003 03
020530 2913N 08851W 8427 01473 9989 +175 +059 039029 031 001 004 03
020600 2914N 08851W 8443 01456 9986 +179 +057 036032 034 008 003 00
020630 2916N 08850W 8411 01492 9996 +163 +053 039030 032 007 005 03
020700 2917N 08850W 8425 01480 0002 +156 +049 051028 030 020 004 03
020730 2917N 08850W 8425 01480 0008 +151 +046 061027 031 021 005 03
020800 2920N 08849W 8405 01500 0016 +143 +041 067025 028 999 999 03
020830 2921N 08848W 8437 01472 0018 +144 +038 074028 034 035 008 03
020900 2922N 08847W 8420 01493 0022 +141 +036 094027 031 034 007 03
020930 2922N 08847W 8420 01493 0022 +144 +036 110030 034 999 999 03
021000 2924N 08844W 8425 01494 0025 +146 +036 117032 034 999 999 03
021030 2925N 08843W 8430 01490 0026 +147 +037 118032 035 031 007 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

Right, but it's certainly not, nor will it be related to the convective band to the east. The frontogenesis is taking place well west and northwest of that feature.

I didn't say that the convection to the east of Ida was a front, but that the front appears to be forming along the trof axis extending SSW from Ida. I'm seeing increasing northerly winds west of the trof along with cooler/drier air flowing in.

[attallaman]

Beginning to get a little more wind action here right now. Winds are out of the NNE at 24, gusting to 42. The rain seems to be tapering off for now.

[deltadog03]

I see some velocities of 72-75kts just south of the shoreline right now. those are all around 5000 feet. so maybe 55kt winds at SFC??

[Dave]

[jpigott]

any thoughts how much eastward progress that convective band in the eastern GOMEX will make? Love to get some rain out of that here in Palm Beach County

Well, as I see it, that feature is primarily being kept going by strong low level convergence. Winds inside of that dry slot to the west have weakened, while there is brisk easterly flow blowing into it, being fed by the high to the north. I would think that convective band might weaken some as low level flow begins to veer/subside en masse across the eastern GOMEX and FL, however there is a large slug of high PWAT air associated with this band, and eventually a surface cold front developing to the west will catch up to this area, and convection will likely refire late TUE through WED (since you're in WPB, the best shot for showers/storms will be WED). I see the forecast for your areas shows 50% TUE night and 60% WED with rain, possibly heavy at times, in the ZFP verbiage.

thanks for the explanation - keeping my fingers crossed here for a little bit of the wet stuff

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100218
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 13 20091110
021100 2925N 08841W 8430 01492 0029 +146 +038 123035 037 035 007 00
021130 2926N 08840W 8425 01500 0033 +145 +039 130042 044 028 008 03
021200 2927N 08839W 8431 01497 0037 +145 +040 132043 044 999 999 03
021230 2928N 08837W 8430 01500 0041 +142 +041 131046 048 999 999 03
021300 2929N 08836W 8428 01504 0046 +139 +042 130050 051 029 007 00
021330 2930N 08834W 8427 01509 0050 +138 +041 132047 048 027 006 00
021400 2931N 08833W 8432 01507 0056 +135 +040 131047 051 028 007 00
021430 2932N 08832W 8424 01518 0063 +128 +040 134051 053 026 007 00
021500 2933N 08830W 8431 01513 0067 +125 +039 134049 050 027 007 00
021530 2934N 08829W 8430 01515 0071 +123 +038 136047 049 025 007 00
021600 2935N 08828W 8430 01516 0074 +118 +038 139046 051 026 010 00
021630 2936N 08826W 8440 01508 0074 +120 +039 141049 050 027 008 00
021700 2937N 08825W 8425 01525 0079 +116 +038 140049 052 028 008 00
021730 2938N 08824W 8433 01517 0082 +114 +039 139051 054 028 007 00
021800 2939N 08822W 8428 01524 0083 +117 +038 141051 052 030 006 00
021830 2940N 08821W 8426 01532 0085 +118 +037 140052 054 032 007 03
021900 2941N 08819W 8439 01519 0091 +111 +036 142053 057 033 006 00
021930 2942N 08818W 8427 01528 0090 +116 +035 141050 053 031 009 00
022000 2943N 08817W 8453 01504 0094 +112 +035 143051 056 030 013 00
022030 2944N 08815W 8425 01532 0095 +111 +035 145053 057 037 010 00
$$
;

[AJC3]

I was going to mention the same thing. Surface obs indicate a frontal boundary forming south of Ida and wrapping into the storm this evening.

Right, but it's certainly not, nor will it be related to the convective band to the east. The frontogenesis is taking place well west and northwest of that feature.

I didn't say that the convection to the east of Ida was a front, but that the front appears to be forming along the trof axis extending SSW from Ida. I'm seeing increasing northerly winds west of the trof along with cooler/drier air flowing in.

Agree 100% with your assessment. Never said you did...was more in response to the post you were responding to as well. My mistake by not directly replying to that post.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100228
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 14 20091110
022100 2945N 08814W 8436 01526 0094 +115 +034 140052 055 036 013 00
022130 2947N 08812W 8445 01513 0092 +114 +034 137057 061 040 014 00
022200 2947N 08811W 8422 01540 0096 +113 +034 141058 061 043 012 00
022230 2949N 08810W 8424 01533 0093 +116 +032 142059 064 039 013 00
022300 2950N 08808W 8430 01529 0093 +118 +031 135053 067 042 012 00
022330 2951N 08807W 8428 01536 0097 +114 +031 138056 060 037 015 00
022400 2951N 08805W 8432 01524 0094 +116 +030 139055 059 041 016 00
022430 2952N 08804W 8432 01529 0096 +114 +029 122063 065 043 025 00
022500 2953N 08803W 8426 01538 0100 +112 +028 120062 065 048 026 00
022530 2954N 08802W 8424 01538 0102 +108 +027 110055 057 051 032 00
022600 2955N 08800W 8413 01551 0101 +106 +026 119063 069 038 039 00
022630 2956N 08759W 8437 01525 0096 +113 +026 125068 071 046 024 00
022700 2957N 08758W 8434 01535 0100 +112 +026 125065 066 049 023 00
022730 2958N 08757W 8429 01535 0103 +108 +026 124057 061 049 025 03
022800 2959N 08756W 8422 01546 0108 +104 +025 117064 068 046 029 03
022830 3000N 08754W 8426 01543 0109 +105 +024 117062 064 041 026 00
022900 3000N 08753W 8442 01528 0111 +107 +023 120061 063 044 025 03
022930 3001N 08752W 8421 01549 0111 +105 +023 118060 061 046 027 03
023000 3002N 08751W 8427 01542 0115 +102 +023 114059 062 042 032 00
023030 3003N 08750W 8444 01528 0117 +100 +023 113062 064 050 031 00
$$
;

[Derek Ortt]

From the NWS in Mobile.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM CST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH
DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. RADAR INDICATES THE ESTIMATED RATE OF MOTION
IS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 19 MPH.

the NWS position does not match the aircraft position at all. The center is closer to 88.8W now. Actually has moved to the NW.

I think we have seen this totally decouple

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 100235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 10/02:04:20Z
B. 29 deg 09 min N
088 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1400 m
D. 39 kt
E. 193 deg 33 nm
F. 251 deg 39 kt
G. 194 deg 35 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 14 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1519 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0811A IDA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 39 KT SW QUAD 01:54:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 02:26:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND WND OCCURED DURING CONVECTION
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 100236
XXAA 6002/ 99292 70888 08198 99997 24208 35008 00522 ///// 92661
21811 85396 22258 88999 77999
31313 09608 80204
61616 AF304 0811A IDA OB 06
62626 SPL 2916N08882W 0206 MBL WND 35505 AEV 20800 DLM WND 00505
996929 WL150 35507 085 REL 2916N08882W 020421 SPG 2916N08883W 020
605 =
XXBB 60028 99292 70888 08198 00997 24208 11888 19809 22870 23057
33850 22258 44843 21065
21212 00997 35008 11965 10501 22963 35006 33940 04003 44929 09007
55843 14009
31313 09608 80204
61616 AF304 0811A IDA OB 06
62626 SPL 2916N08882W 0206 MBL WND 35505 AEV 20800 DLM WND 00505
996929 WL150 35507 085 REL 2916N08882W 020421 SPG 2916N08883W 020
605 =
;

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100238
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 15 20091110
023100 3004N 08748W 8423 01550 0116 +099 +024 111061 064 046 036 00
023130 3005N 08747W 8417 01555 0120 +096 +024 112062 065 038 024 00
023200 3006N 08746W 8445 01528 0119 +101 +025 113062 065 040 020 00
023230 3006N 08745W 8412 01563 0122 +098 +026 114057 059 039 022 00
023300 3007N 08744W 8435 01541 0123 +097 +026 111057 060 045 023 00
023330 3008N 08742W 8424 01554 0124 +095 +027 111062 064 045 024 00
023400 3009N 08741W 8427 01547 0123 +095 +028 111064 065 043 025 03
023430 3010N 08740W 8433 01543 0124 +095 +029 113064 066 038 024 00
023500 3011N 08739W 8425 01552 0126 +095 +030 114066 067 037 020 00
023530 3011N 08738W 8433 01542 0123 +095 +031 117066 068 035 014 03
023600 3012N 08737W 8419 01563 0128 +095 +033 117067 069 033 014 03
023630 3014N 08738W 8437 01542 0127 +097 +034 111068 069 999 999 03
023700 3014N 08740W 8438 01538 0124 +095 +036 106063 065 999 999 03
023730 3013N 08742W 8428 01545 0122 +095 +036 108064 065 035 023 03
023800 3013N 08745W 8424 01550 0122 +095 +036 110066 069 037 017 00
023830 3013N 08747W 8426 01546 0119 +097 +036 110067 068 039 011 00
023900 3013N 08750W 8435 01536 0114 +101 +036 108065 066 066 003 00
023930 3013N 08752W 8425 01544 0114 +097 +037 106065 067 067 002 00
024000 3014N 08755W 8436 01532 0108 +104 +038 105065 066 999 999 03
024030 3014N 08757W 8428 01542 0102 +114 +040 108064 065 999 999 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

the NWS position does not match the aircraft position at all. The center is closer to 88.8W now. Actually has moved to the NW.

I think we have seen this totally decouple

Just looked at a sat pic. Is that the center completely exposed just SE of the mouth of the MS? Surface obs support it. If it is, then it may well never make landfall. New VDM has a fix at 29.1N/88.8W. That's the open swirl on the sat pic below. In addition, looks like cool air stratocumulus flowing into it from the west (that solid light gray cloud mass all along the LA coast to the upper TX coast). Getting cool here in Houston. Have been seeing reports of very strong northerly winds off the mid LA coast this afternoon and evening (our clients). Clearly, cool air is racing out across the Gulf just west of Ida.

[bayoubebe]

Beginning to get a little more wind action here right now. Winds are out of the NNE at 24, gusting to 42. The rain seems to be tapering off for now.

Did you get flooding in your area? At the times, that I watched live reports with reporters in MS, AL, AND FL; MS looked like it was getting pounded the worst.

[jasons2k]

From the NWS in Mobile.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM CST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH
DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. RADAR INDICATES THE ESTIMATED RATE OF MOTION
IS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 19 MPH.

the NWS position does not match the aircraft position at all. The center is closer to 88.8W now. Actually has moved to the NW.

I think we have seen this totally decouple

I was noticing that myself, looks like a mid level center south of the AL/MS coast and another center moving NW towards the MS coast.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100248
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 16 20091110
024100 3014N 08800W 8429 01534 0097 +110 +040 107064 065 999 999 03
024130 3014N 08802W 8432 01537 0099 +113 +041 107065 065 034 006 03
024200 3014N 08805W 8429 01537 0102 +110 +041 104064 065 030 004 00
024230 3014N 08807W 8432 01529 0100 +109 +042 100064 065 043 007 03
024300 3014N 08810W 8428 01535 0105 +104 +043 099063 063 026 007 03
024330 3014N 08812W 8427 01536 0100 +107 +044 100064 065 031 006 00
024400 3014N 08815W 8434 01525 0095 +110 +045 097065 066 087 016 03
024430 3014N 08817W 8426 01535 0101 +102 +046 098066 067 039 003 03
024500 3014N 08820W 8430 01531 0101 +105 +047 097065 066 032 006 00
024530 3014N 08822W 8430 01533 0103 +103 +048 098065 066 031 006 00
024600 3015N 08825W 8429 01534 0100 +106 +048 096066 067 030 005 00
024630 3015N 08827W 8431 01531 0100 +106 +049 093066 067 030 004 00
024700 3015N 08830W 8430 01531 0097 +110 +050 092066 067 028 006 03
024730 3015N 08832W 8431 01529 0099 +105 +051 091067 068 032 005 00
024800 3015N 08835W 8428 01533 0098 +107 +051 091067 067 032 004 00
024830 3015N 08837W 8428 01532 0100 +105 +052 090068 069 031 004 00
024900 3015N 08840W 8431 01531 0101 +105 +052 086067 067 029 004 00
024930 3015N 08842W 8426 01533 0100 +101 +052 085068 069 036 001 03
025000 3015N 08845W 8433 01527 0100 +103 +052 084068 069 037 001 03
025030 3015N 08847W 8425 01536 0098 +106 +052 084067 068 034 005 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 100252
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA MOVING SLOWER...CENTER APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...165 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA
SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER
LANDFALL...IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
IDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL...AND IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...29.3N 88.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 AM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

000
WTNT41 KNHC 100300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE
CENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE
NORTH. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX THAT POSITIONED
THE CENTER EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WELL SOUTH OF THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THE FORWARD SPEED OF IDA HAS SLOWED TO
ABOUT 11 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A CONTINUED
REDUCTION IN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM AND A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AFTER LANDFALL. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 12 HOURS AND IS THEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 71 KT AND A SMFR SURFACE WIND OF 51 KT. THIS SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. IDA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. ONCE INLAND THE
CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 36-48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IDA'S LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE
SIGNIFICANCE SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE
AREA AND MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 29.3N 88.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 30.8N 87.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 11/0000Z 31.5N 86.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 11/1200Z 31.3N 84.8W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...29.3N 88.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be impossible to track the center on radar from this point I believe, she is a mess!