GOM: INVEST 90L

[AdamFirst]

I don't want to wake up to TS warning...

Let's not get too excited now...

[Javlin]

I don't want to wake up to TS warning...

Let's not get too excited now...

A little wind and little blow never hurt no one could be interesting,esp. if this was our blow for the season I take it with both hands

[HURAKAN]

[JTE50]

[/quote] Let's not get too excited now...[/quote]

Too late for that . . . I've been filming the feeder bands all day along here in Pensacola and it sure beats Sunny boring Blue Sky !!

[Ed Mahmoud]

[Bailey1777]

ThankYou Hurakan that's a great way to show it(DUMMY PROOF)

[HURAKAN]

[tailgater]

Do you think that is the LLC south of Mobile

Sorry I don't know how to post a loop but here's the link.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes

[JTE50]

GrLevel 2 Radar out of Mobile:

[Derek Ortt]

added a floater on the system

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think we will have Tropical Storm Ana by 5 AM.
There has been a really strong blow up of convection
as the system has moved into much lower shear.
Additionally, Mobile NWS radar shows very well
defined rotation about the center with heavy
convection on the North and East sides.

[Bailey1777]

24 hours ago I would have said you were crazy, but she is making a run at it. That's the tropics for you (Never know when you might get surprised.)

[storm92405]

Take a look at the storm relative velocities from the Mobile radar. Definately rotation in the convection.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tolakram]

Wind speed climbing as pressure is dropping.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

[Sihara]

Could be. From the NHC:

"FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

As previously stated, the effect will be the same, named or no. Rain totals on the E. Coast are rivaling Fay's and we're seeing more people boating in the streets. Sadly, eleven people or more have perished in Haiti - an ugly start to the Season. Here at home, we've just had a badly-needed drought buster - a welcome relief from overheated temps and the threat of wildfires.

From the pictures I've seen of it, it sure has a TD look to it, just a thought.

[wxman57]

Do you think that is the LLC south of Mobile?

The low center is very broad, perhaps 100 or more miles across. Thunderstorms are forming on the northeast part of a large ring (the perimeter of the low). Buoys are reporting NE-E winds of 25-35 mph within that area of storms. Elsewhere, winds are 10-15 miles south of there.

There's no question it's a closed circulation, but it currently lacks thunderstorms near any well-defined LLC, so no upgrade tonight is likely. By tomorrow morning, the squalls should be inland into MS/AL and the low will follow, moving ashore before noon. Hopefully, the NHC will just let it move inland without overly alarming people on the coast about this rainfall event.

[vbhoutex]

This is Jeff Lindner's latest on 90L:

90L: TD Possible‏

Large area of surface low pressure located 100 miles SE of the mouth of the MS River our 200 miles SSE of Pensacola, FL has developed extensive deep convection near and to the N and NE of the broad low level center.

Convection is not over the center and shear is displacing the thunderstorms to the north and NE of the center, however enough organization appears to be in progress to raise the threat that a TD may be forming.

Track:

Surface low is moving toward the WNW to NW at 5-10mph and this motion should continue with a gradual turn more toward the NW and NNW with time. This is supported by the global models and tropical guidance bringing he system toward the MS/AL/FL panhandle Saturday evening.

Intensity:

Splitting hairs between a weak TS and nothing as the difference will be a name or no name...the impacts will be the same. Main threat will be excessive flooding rainfall and gusty winds along the coast. Do not foresee much more than a 40mph TS given the appearance with all the convection removed from the center. First the convection will have to persist overnight...and then we may see something.

Impacts:

Main impacts will be flooding rainfall along and E of the track. Across TX swells are already up, and should actually start coming down as the system moves inland. Tropical moisture is spreading westward as noted by increase in PW at KLCH evening ROAB along with WSR 88D showing westward moving storms over SC LA in region of enhanced moisture and western ascent of surface flow. Expect deeper moisture to overspread the region overnight setting the stage for an active seabreeze both Saturday and Sunday and maybe into Monday.

Will keep a close eye on the low once inland over the southern US just to make sure it keeps moving northward. The system looks very much like a highly sheared...heavily eastern side biased development of convection.

[baygirl_1]

Well, I can tell y'all it's sure acting like something tropical. We're having bands of rain moving through: no rain--heavy downpour--no rain--heavy downpour--... I did hear some thunder this afternoon right before the dismissal bell at a school, but that was it. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD or minimal TS. Regardless, we're in for a very soggy Memorial Day weekend. How dare it rain on our crawfish boils and barbecues!

[Tampa_God]

Can we call this Ana already, please! lol

[Category 5]

Can we call this Ana already, please! lol

no because its not