ATL: INVEST (97L)

[KWT]

Shear hitting this one quite strongly at the moment, also the convection seems to be reforming northwards a little bit which gives more credance to the northern option the models were suggesting, though its still heading westwards for now.

Upper high forming in the central Caribbean which has pushed the jet streak further north and right into the path of 97L.

[Gustywind]

Shear is the story. Looks like some good rain and GUSTYWIND for Barbados

You're joking BVIGAL, me on BARBADOS (GUSTYWIND):lol: no i'm so kind . More seriously, Barbados should experienced some gusts not GUSTYWIND

[Gustywind]

Tropics remain quiet
Mark Avery, , Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 20, 2009 6:18 am ET
The tropics are quiet around the globe once again.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles and will bring some showers and occasionally gusty winds to the islands later today and tonight. However, this system is not expected to develop tropically as upper level winds are not favorable.

Although it has been a relatively slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, the season is historically only about 13% complete at this time of year. In the active 2004 season (which produced four U.S. hurricane landfalls), the first storm was not named until August 1.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[HURAKAN]

162
ABNT20 KNHC 201140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

Latest info from NRL site at 1115 UTC
-13,1 N 58,1 W 25 Kts 1011 mb

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[Ed Mahmoud]

It looked like a TD yesterday, on satellite imagery, suggestion of organization, even banding features trying to develop.

Now it just looks like a blob. The feature behind it looks better.

Out on a stout limb- no TD/storm for at least 3 days. If ever.

[Dean4Storms]

Shear!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tracking 850 mb vorticity, weak low of Louisiana is 97L per Canadian




GFDL loses 97L quickly, outer grid has a broad weak low East of Florida in 5 days.

0Z GFS nada

No love from NoGaps.

Euro, weak feature East of Florida gets ingested into polar system, eventually forms a nice looking storm in the Maritimes, unlikely to be tropical.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

Gaing some latitud.

AL, 97, 2009072012, , BEST, 0, 134N, 574W, 25, 1010, DB

[Blown Away]

12 UTC Best Track

Gaing some latitud.

AL, 97, 2009072012, , BEST, 0, 134N, 574W, 25, 1010, DB

Where are the 06z models?? It's hard to tell w/ the shear but it appears 97L has slowed even more.

[cycloneye]

Where are the 06z models??

06z nor 12z haved comed out.

[Blown Away]

Where are the 06z models??

06z nor 12z haved comed out.

Are they thinking of deactivating?

[cycloneye]

The 12z guidance just came out.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Models

2
WHXX01 KWBC 201249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC MON JUL 20 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090720 1200 090721 0000 090721 1200 090722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 57.6W 14.3N 62.0W 15.9N 66.7W 17.7N 70.8W
BAMD 13.1N 57.6W 13.5N 59.8W 13.9N 62.3W 14.6N 65.4W
BAMM 13.1N 57.6W 13.9N 60.7W 14.8N 64.1W 16.0N 67.5W
LBAR 13.1N 57.6W 13.9N 60.8W 14.8N 64.3W 16.0N 68.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090722 1200 090723 1200 090724 1200 090725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 75.2W 22.9N 80.8W 25.5N 82.5W 28.0N 81.6W
BAMD 15.3N 68.7W 16.4N 75.6W 16.4N 82.2W 15.7N 88.8W
BAMM 17.2N 71.2W 19.5N 77.8W 20.9N 82.3W 21.7N 85.5W
LBAR 17.5N 71.7W 20.6N 77.5W 23.6N 79.0W 27.4N 81.7W
SHIP 38KTS 41KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 38KTS 40KTS 46KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 57.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 50.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[wxman57]

So much for that westerly jet moving north and out of the way of 97L per GFS forecast yesterday. It dug southeast overnight and is hitting the disturbance hard. It would appear that shear will continue to be an issue for this disturbance. Unless the shear drops off, development chances are slim to none.

[wxman57]

I'd disregard the BAM models for this system, as the environment in the path of the disturbance will be changing with that trof digging down into the Gulf. All the dynamic models are in fairly good agreement on a WNW-NW track across Cuba, near south Florida, then north up the front.

[Gustywind]

12 UTC Best Track

Gaing some latitud.

AL, 97, 2009072012, , BEST, 0, 134N, 574W, 25, 1010, DB

12 UTC: 13,1 N 57,6 W 25kts 1010 hpa

Given NRL it's the same latitude, but not more west compared to te precedent updating (58,1W). Whereas the latest data shows 1 hpa lost...(down to 1010 hpa compared to 1011 hpa previously).

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[cycloneye]

No surprise here,no planes.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 20 JULY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[cycloneye]

Martinique radar



Animation of radar

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

If any member wants to see how are things evolving in the islands,you can go to Weather Attic forum,at the Eastern Caribbean thread,where the Caribbean members are posting their observations.

Link to Eastern Caribbean Thread at Weather Attic forum.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&start=0

[gatorcane]

So much for that westerly jet moving north and out of the way of 97L per GFS forecast yesterday. It dug southeast overnight and is hitting the disturbance hard. It would appear that shear will continue to be an issue for this disturbance. Unless the shear drops off, development chances are slim to none.

You were right. Looking back at the HPC Carib discussion from last Fri. that certainly did not verify at all and shear remains. Snippet from Fri. disco:

THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES INTO THE BAHAMAS. AS IT PULLS AWAY...A RIDGE IS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODELS SHOWING A HIGH FORMING
NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS BY 48-72 HRS. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE VENTILATION TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...COINCIDING WITH ARRIVAL OF
A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html