ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Weatherfreak14]

Nope, it looks like we may get Ana by tommrrow if it gets its act together, i think this may be a blocker for all the SAL out there for what mite be TD 3.

[JPmia]

12Z GFS takes Two across FL, across the northern Gulf then southwest into eastern Mexico as a massive hurricane hits Florida then the Carolinas. Ok...

Now I know we are safe here in Florida! All kidding aside, I don't remember seeing models do that before calling for two systems across Florida so very close in time.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

Still a TD.

AL, 02, 2009081118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 299W, 25, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[alan1961]

ITCZ is evidently helping TD2 out here, needs to stay in good proximity IMO if its to build more, interesting few days coming up

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 111845
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090811 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090811 1800 090812 0600 090812 1800 090813 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 29.9W 15.0N 32.2W 15.1N 34.6W 15.2N 37.1W
BAMD 14.6N 29.9W 15.1N 31.8W 15.6N 34.1W 15.9N 36.9W
BAMM 14.6N 29.9W 15.2N 32.0W 15.8N 34.2W 16.1N 36.9W
LBAR 14.6N 29.9W 15.0N 32.0W 15.8N 34.5W 16.5N 37.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090813 1800 090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 39.9W 16.1N 46.2W 18.0N 53.3W 21.0N 61.6W
BAMD 16.7N 40.0W 19.4N 45.4W 23.5N 49.1W 26.1N 50.0W
BAMM 16.8N 39.8W 18.5N 46.0W 20.9N 52.6W 24.0N 59.4W
LBAR 17.3N 40.4W 20.4N 45.6W 25.2N 48.9W 29.6N 45.3W
SHIP 42KTS 49KTS 50KTS 45KTS
DSHP 42KTS 49KTS 50KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 29.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 27.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 25.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[BensonTCwatcher]

Truly the dry air to the North combined with increasing shear over the next couple days in that region will go to work on it. If it stays locked on the ITCZ it looks to pull enough moisture to get under. Either way, I think the circulation is looking stronger. We'll see a lot of pulses with Dmin Dmax though.

[Frank2]

TD2 seems to have lost it's outflow and has become very diffuse in appearance - even I'll agree that 36 or 48 hours ago it looked very impressive - not so ATTM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

[jconsor]

12Z GFS takes Two across FL, across the northern Gulf then southwest into eastern Mexico as a massive hurricane hits Florida then the Carolinas. Ok...

No, the Caribbean-Florida hit on the GFS is from the wave behind TD2 that is now just emerging off the African coast.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS seems to bring this depression to Florida. Then the 12Z hits South Florida again by another much stronger system. Am I reading that correctly?

[David in FL]

Frank i agree. That system behing it looks mean.

[Stormcenter]

I believe there is some serious confusion as to what TD or waves are being tracked on the models. I don't think the one the GFS has by Florida is TD #2.

[Frank2]

The convection over land (Africa) seems to be a line of diurnal thunderstorms at this point (they have that bow-echo appearance) - it's possible they will dissipate before the next 6-hour Meteosat photo become available, and the wave that just came off the land mass is now part of the ITCZ, so we'll see if it becomes isolated at some point or continues to be a part of the convergence zone weather...

[Gustywind]

I won't say that about TD 2:



Let's wait another pulse of energy from TD 2...as yesterday at Invest status, she's a WARRIOR :

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:04 N Lon : 30:21:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.8 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -30.4C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.12^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... t/adt.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:04 N Lon : 30:21:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.8 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -30.4C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.12^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... t/adt.html

Is this ana by 5pm Cycloneye????

[RL3AO]

Is this ana by 5pm Cycloneye????

No chance.

[CrazyC83]

11/1745 UTC 14.4N 30.1W T1.5/2.0 02L -- Atlantic

SAB sees it having weakened. 30 kt would be a blend of the data, and probably the best guess right now.

[cycloneye]

hurricanefloyd5,not at 5 PM.

[drezee]

highres visible seems to indicate the LLC was to the SE of the MLC until about 1845 when it looked to pop NW. Looks to be be finally vertically stacked IMO. If that was a main hinderence(there are others), then this should pop over the next 12 hours.

[Stormcenter]

As long as you agree to have all of the storms that do develop head your way I'm fine with the season "ramping" up if in fact that's what it's doing now. Otherwise speaking for myself I would jump for joy if nothing developed at all for the remainder of the season.

All I can say is it's been way too long since I had something to track, and hope the season is really ramping up. I've missed this!