ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[SapphireSea]

I would look to the W Carrib in the future, or the next strong EATL wave for development (not the current low being looked at by NHC) .

[SapphireSea]

Is there any degree of plausibility to these models? I don´t think I have ever seen so many models predict regeneration and deepening from a cyclone that looked to be dying. Do the models predict shear to decrease, or are they simply failing to understand that there is a great deal of shear?

I believe it is still the latter.

[StormClouds63]

I'm really surprised that nothing popped in the GOM this year.

The season for SW LA still has 4-5 weeks left. GOM has been well behaved this year. Let's leave well enough alone.

[poof121]

I'm assuming the models have the vertical resolution to see the undercutting shear?

[BigA]

I think Erika´s MLC in the northern lesser Antilles is still worth watching; the LLC, however, is utterly toast.

[gatorcane]

Look at this huge trough 12Z GFS has at 384 hours. Yeah I know it is far out but man, this season may be over early for much of the CONUS if these troughs don't let up:

Looks like we are going into the fall season where we left off last year across the Eastern CONUS -- trough after trough after trough......

Have we even seen a moderate Bermuda High this year? Here in South FL all we see are SW winds it seems like the Atlantic doesn't even exist.

[cycloneye]

She has something left as convection building just east of swirl.

[tpr1967]

Look at this huge trough 12Z GFS has at 384 hours. Yeah I know it is far out but man, this season may be over early for much of the CONUS if these troughs don't let up:

Looks like we are going into the fall season where we left off last year across the Eastern CONUS -- trough after trough after trough......

Have we even seen a moderate Bermuda High this year? Here in South FL all we see are SW winds it seems like the Atlantic doesn't even exist.

Excellent, bring on the cool weather.

[jlauderdal]

She has something left as convection building just east of swirl.

those popcorn showers look intense

[BigA]

From what it looks like on this page,http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ there does seem to be some sort of prediction from the CMC, GFS and NOGAPS that mid level shear will be a lot less in 2 to 3 days in the Bahamas region...whether there is anything left of this I don´t know.

[funster]

She has something left as convection building just east of swirl.

I think this storm will make a comeback although I think almost all the storms will make a comeback for I am a
storm regeneration optimist.

[thetruesms]

Look at it this way, it's better than in 2002!

1 Tropical Storm ARTHUR 14-16 JUL 50 997 -
2 Tropical Storm BERTHA 04-09 AUG 35 1008 -
3 Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL 05-08 AUG 40 999 -
4 Tropical Storm DOLLY 29 AUG-04 SEP 55 994 -
5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD 01-06 SEP 55 1002 -

2006:

1 Tropical Storm ALBERTO 10-14 JUN 60 995 -
2 Tropical Storm BERYL 18-21 JUL 50 1001 -
Noname
3 Tropical Storm CHRIS 01-05 AUG 55 1001 -
4 Tropical Storm DEBBY 21-27 AUG 45 1000 -
5 Hurricane ERNESTO 24 AUG-01 SEP 65 987 1
6 Hurricane FLORENCE 03-12 SEP 80 972 1

1994:

1 Tropical Storm ALBERTO 30 JUN- 7 JUL 55 993 -
2 Tropical Storm BERYL 14-19 AUG 50 1000 -
3 Hurricane CHRIS 16-23 AUG 70 979 1

1982:

1 Hurricane ALBERTO 2- 6 JUN 75 985 1
2 Subtropical Storm 1 18-20 JUN 60 984 -
3 Tropical Storm BERYL 28 AUG- 6 SEP 63 989 -

and more.

Always think that when you believe something looks bad, it could have been worse before!

This post makes me think that maybe I should rein in expectations for the 2018 season

[thetruesms]

I'm assuming the models have the vertical resolution to see the undercutting shear?

I don't think that resolution should be an issue, but oceanic data voids should be a pretty big issue

[fci]

Look at it this way, it's better than in 2002!

1 Tropical Storm ARTHUR 14-16 JUL 50 997 -
2 Tropical Storm BERTHA 04-09 AUG 35 1008 -
3 Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL 05-08 AUG 40 999 -
4 Tropical Storm DOLLY 29 AUG-04 SEP 55 994 -
5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD 01-06 SEP 55 1002 -

2006:

1 Tropical Storm ALBERTO 10-14 JUN 60 995 -
2 Tropical Storm BERYL 18-21 JUL 50 1001 -
Noname
3 Tropical Storm CHRIS 01-05 AUG 55 1001 -
4 Tropical Storm DEBBY 21-27 AUG 45 1000 -
5 Hurricane ERNESTO 24 AUG-01 SEP 65 987 1
6 Hurricane FLORENCE 03-12 SEP 80 972 1

1994:

1 Tropical Storm ALBERTO 30 JUN- 7 JUL 55 993 -
2 Tropical Storm BERYL 14-19 AUG 50 1000 -
3 Hurricane CHRIS 16-23 AUG 70 979 1

1982:

1 Hurricane ALBERTO 2- 6 JUN 75 985 1
2 Subtropical Storm 1 18-20 JUN 60 984 -
3 Tropical Storm BERYL 28 AUG- 6 SEP 63 989 -

and more.

Always think that when you believe something looks bad, it could have been worse before!

This post makes me think that maybe I should rein in expectations for the 2018 season

[cycloneye]

I had to bring some humor after all of the twists and turns this system has had.57 bring bones.

[msbee]

Thar's funny Luis
I love it!
what a bust Erika was for us. We barely even got rain from her.

Barbara

[SapphireSea]

Oh!! Me Me!! Since wxman57 isn't here. Lets make it official. Sorry for stealing the link




But in all due seriousness, this is still creating some weather for the islands. Just because its future of being a significant TC is very murky, does not mean that it can be a problem for PR or DR/Haiti.

[webke]

I don't know about you but watching Erika die today kinda of reminded me of the movie The Wizard of OZ. Erika looked like the wicked witch of the west when Dorothy threw the bucket of water on her.

[Derek Ortt]

may be buying itself a few more hours with the latest convective burst just east of the center

[jlauderdal]

Oh!! Me Me!! Since wxman57 isn't here. Lets make it official. Sorry for stealing the link




But in all due seriousness, this is still creating some weather for the islands. Just because its future of being a significant TC is very murky, does not mean that it can be a problem for PR or DR/Haiti.

nice effort but only 57 declares bones and only ortt declares "next" and ortt just declared at least a couple more hours of life for this thing