ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[lonelymike]

And as for finding a pro met to agree with someone in order to make their thoughts valid, not sure what having a degree would add to what we can plainly see in the available tools of the Internet. Does having a BS in meteorology give the pro mets some secret access to other parts of the Internet where us lowly regular folk cannot venture? It's not like these guys (Luis and HURAKAN) are saying anything that they cannot back up with sound reasoning. I respect the people who got degrees in meteorology but they put on their pants feet first like the rest of us do.[/quote]


Actually having a degree in meterology and experience actually does make a difference No disrespect is meant to Luis or HURAKAN for their observations which as you say are always well thought out and valid. I'm just pointing out that our resident pro mets don't seem too enthusiastic over this wave. If anyone took that comment the wrong way my apologies. I put more trust in the opinions of pro mets than some of the amauter opinions that inhabit this board is all I'm saying.

[ROCK]

I have to go with 10.2 right now for best track. Just by looking at the vis. I dont see anything up at 11.2....JMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

[vbhoutex]

I have to go with 10.2 right now for best track. Just by looking at the vis. I dont see anything up at 11.2....JMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

After a closer look, I must retract my earlier statement and agree with the 10.2 also. Gets pretty obvious with it zoomed in, at least to me.

[HURAKAN]

I have to go with 10.2 right now for best track. Just by looking at the vis. I dont see anything up at 11.2....JMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

I respect everyone opinions but I can't say "next" to 94L just looking at the loop.

[blp]

What is up with Gfdl & Hwrf? They have not run since 06z. Did the loose faith in 94l.

[Sanibel]

I think we'll see a tighter system tomorrow.


Fred over Africa will be some system right out of the gates in a few days.

[Blown Away]

It's where I see the broad low?

[cycloneye]

:double:

Why that?

[Aric Dunn]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



seriously as far a waves go.. this is very well organized and like may have said already has at least maintained decent convection for more than 24hrs. although the circ is elongated its is a large system and take time to wrap up as we just saw will bill. anyone who says its disorganized is right if you compare it to a Tropical cyclone but the problem is, is that its not a tropical cyclone so comparing this to Danny is completely irrelevant. beside im sure we have all seen countless waves turn into Tropical cyclone i can think of two in recent memories ( Ana and Claudette) ..lol

So honestly it would be a complete shock if this does not develop in the next 24 hours or so .. it is a very highly amplified wave with clearly and broad but very discernible closed wind field and will over time tighten up as long as convection maintains and there is no signs of convection dropping off as it is in a moist environment, and actually convection is again on the increase and closer to the center this time around. over night will be a good chance for this to organize more. the current dynamics at play bode well for development from a physics point of view.

Added Disclaimer to post=cycloneye

[Aric Dunn]

:double:

Why that?

thats for all the back and forth about it looking worse than danny.. lol

[perk]

And as for finding a pro met to agree with someone in order to make their thoughts valid, not sure what having a degree would add to what we can plainly see in the available tools of the Internet. Does having a BS in meteorology give the pro mets some secret access to other parts of the Internet where us lowly regular folk cannot venture? It's not like these guys (Luis and HURAKAN) are saying anything that they cannot back up with sound reasoning. I respect the people who got degrees in meteorology but they put on their pants feet first like the rest of us do.

Actually having a degree in meterology and experience actually does make a difference No disrespect is meant to Luis or HURAKAN for their observations which as you say are always well thought out and valid. I'm just pointing out that our resident pro mets don't seem too enthusiastic over this wave. If anyone took that comment the wrong way my apologies. I put more trust in the opinions of pro mets than some of the amauter opinions that inhabit this board is all I'm saying. [/quote]





I think you still maybe missing the point, and the point being that even though their pro-mets they're not always right.

[Dean4Storms]

It is going to have to slow a bit, I think between its forward speed and the shear it is keeping it from organizing. Once it gets to the SW edge of the ridge I believe it slows and then that is when it organizes, problem is by then it will be far enough west to be a problem for someone!

slow down? Why does this need to slow down when the convection is 200NM west of the center? The convection will only become displaced 500NM west of the center if this slows down

It needs to speed up to reduce the storm relative shear

You're right, I meant speed up. It was a long week! haha!

[Aric Dunn]

Also keep eyes trained in this area as the great vorticity is here and where the greatest wind shift is at.. a low can tighten up anywhere near this area especially as the wave axis bottoms out and lifts above 10 north over night and tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

And as for finding a pro met to agree with someone in order to make their thoughts valid, not sure what having a degree would add to what we can plainly see in the available tools of the Internet. Does having a BS in meteorology give the pro mets some secret access to other parts of the Internet where us lowly regular folk cannot venture? It's not like these guys (Luis and HURAKAN) are saying anything that they cannot back up with sound reasoning. I respect the people who got degrees in meteorology but they put on their pants feet first like the rest of us do.

Actually having a degree in meterology and experience actually does make a difference No disrespect is meant to Luis or HURAKAN for their observations which as you say are always well thought out and valid. I'm just pointing out that our resident pro mets don't seem too enthusiastic over this wave. If anyone took that comment the wrong way my apologies. I put more trust in the opinions of pro mets than some of the amauter opinions that inhabit this board is all I'm saying.

I think you still maybe missing the point, and the point being that even though their pro-mets they're not always right.[/quote]

hahaha ... isn't that the truth .. what makes them pro is when they can admit they are wrong .. Jack beven said something like I have had to explain my mistake in the forecast over and over ( not exact quote but something like that) when he botched I think it was Ivan ( not sure about which system either going to try and find the archive for it ) forecast.

[AtlanticWind]

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Here is a Pro Met that thinks this has a good chance .

[Derek Ortt]

if this develops... may I be sentenced to wear the dunce cap for making the "next" post (in addition to the 5K penalty run I will have to do on the Rickenbacker Causeway in the heat of the afternoon)

[lonelymike]

And as for finding a pro met to agree with someone in order to make their thoughts valid, not sure what having a degree would add to what we can plainly see in the available tools of the Internet. Does having a BS in meteorology give the pro mets some secret access to other parts of the Internet where us lowly regular folk cannot venture? It's not like these guys (Luis and HURAKAN) are saying anything that they cannot back up with sound reasoning. I respect the people who got degrees in meteorology but they put on their pants feet first like the rest of us do.

Actually having a degree in meterology and experience actually does make a difference No disrespect is meant to Luis or HURAKAN for their observations which as you say are always well thought out and valid. I'm just pointing out that our resident pro mets don't seem too enthusiastic over this wave. If anyone took that comment the wrong way my apologies. I put more trust in the opinions of pro mets than some of the amauter opinions that inhabit this board is all I'm saying.

I think you still maybe missing the point, and the point being that even though their pro-mets they're not always right.[/quote]

I get the point. I'm just saying that pro mets are more equipped to read all the technical jargon that goes with forecasting. Tropical systems have a mind of their own which makes even the best forecaster scratch their heads at times.

[Aric Dunn]

if this develops... may I be sentenced to wear the dunce cap for making the next post (in addition to the 5K penalty run I will have to do on the Rickenbacker Causeway in the heat of the afternoon)

well humor is always a good ice breaker.. hehe good stuff .. but only if we all get to wip you if you start to slow down on your 5k run .. lol

['CaneFreak]

is SFWMD down?

Yes,and that is why I am posting the Weatherunderground graphic.Dont ask me why LBAR does that.

Hey, cycloneye...why does the LBAR do that?