ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[HURAKAN]

Au revoir Henri!

[deltadog03]

BYE BYE!!! I guess we chalk this one up too??

[wxman57]

Bones has two announcements. First, he'd like to mention that Star Trek Seasons 1-3 are now available in beautiful high-definition Blu-Ray. I think I'll put them on my Christmas list.
http://www.blu-ray.com/movies/Star-Trek ... view/4189/

Second...

[Frank2]

Yes, Jim, it's toast...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

LOL

[cycloneye]

Best track downgrades from TD.

AL, 10, 2009100818, , BEST, 0, 202N, 622W, 25, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

421
WHXX01 KWBC 081811
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1811 UTC THU OCT 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE HENRI (AL102009) 20091008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091008 1800 091009 0600 091009 1800 091010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 62.2W 20.7N 64.2W 21.1N 66.2W 21.2N 68.4W
BAMD 20.2N 62.2W 20.4N 63.9W 20.3N 66.1W 20.4N 68.8W
BAMM 20.2N 62.2W 20.4N 64.1W 20.4N 66.5W 20.6N 69.3W
LBAR 20.2N 62.2W 20.7N 63.8W 20.8N 65.5W 20.4N 67.7W
SHIP 25KTS 22KTS 23KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 22KTS 23KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091010 1800 091011 1800 091012 1800 091013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 70.8W 22.6N 75.5W 23.4N 79.4W 23.7N 83.1W
BAMD 20.7N 71.7W 21.8N 76.6W 22.2N 80.7W 22.3N 84.5W
BAMM 21.1N 72.1W 22.3N 77.0W 22.8N 80.7W 22.8N 84.3W
LBAR 20.1N 70.2W 20.5N 76.0W 20.8N 81.2W 20.8N 86.1W
SHIP 36KTS 48KTS 59KTS 70KTS
DSHP 36KTS 48KTS 45KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 62.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 57.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

NEXT STORM PLEASE

[HURAKAN]

[breeze]

Au revoir, petite tempête...

[HURAKAN]

Au revoir, petite tempête...

You know he has feelings, right?!?!?!?

[Gustywind]

C'est très bien Hurakan, bon élève (good pupill). Just a remark on your sentence: it's not "DANS 2015" but EN 2015, correction: you should say in 2015 ( en 2015 :) . Tkanks for this nice sentence, we appreciate this french wink us in the islands.
Gustywind who is not the teacher

[HURAKAN]

I used freetranslation.com!!! Don't think those words came out of my mouth in French!!!

[Gustywind]

Au revoir, petite tempête...

Excellent Brent, very good i give you an A . A la prochaine Henri (meaning see you next time Henri) .

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: I used freetranslation.com!!! Don't think those words came out of my mouth in French!!!

I noticied that Hurakan... but this time you know how to say en 2015 and that's the good tkink, agree with me? Tkanks to Gustywind churning as a gust near Henri
Have a good day my friend Hurakan

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, Henri certainly is in poor shape. I wouldn't call this a comeback, but there is some modest convection beginning to fire on the east side of the remnant swirl. Something to watch, since shear in the area is not as strong as it was yesterday.

Shear and subsidence have been an incredibly effective defense against TC's this year. I don't think this is all nino related, there is something else at work here, which some budding grad student will likely study.

[HURAKAN]

712
WTNT25 KNHC 082035
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 62.2W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 62.2W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.6N 64.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 66.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 69.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 62.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


017
WTNT45 KNHC 082036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST THU OCT 08 2009

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVOURED YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
YEAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HENRI HAS ONLY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER. THUS...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HENRI ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 20.4N 62.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 09/0600Z 20.6N 64.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 09/1800Z 20.5N 66.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 69.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Blown Away]

First time convection has fired over the LLC in a while.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Gustywind]

[caribepr]

Hope the au voir isn't premature for any rain events...it would be nice to think Henri has the good manners to leave without a fuss

[gatorcane]

I think you have to go back to 2004 as the last time there was a developing system with a good upper-level environment that went through the Hebert box, approaching from the ESE.

Ever since then, we have seen system after system get taken down by the strong shear around the Leewards. This year, the synoptics did open up the possibilities of systems getting far to the west. But it seems that when this happens, the shear does the job to kill the system. On the other hand, when synoptics were present that would recurve systems E of 65W or so, the upper-level environment seemed better, but it didn't matter since the system was recurving anyway.

There is something about that area around the NE Leewards (or just east of the Leewards) that keeps killing systems.