WPAC: TD CHAN-HOM (TD 02W)

[HURAKAN]

Moving inland.

[somethingfunny]

What is the little island to the east of Chan-Hom's eye?

Little island? Luzon.

I think he means that little white dot in the right-front quadrant.

[HURAKAN]

Scarborough Shoal

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.0N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.7N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 120.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHAN-HOM),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01W (KUJIRA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Deteriorating badly overland.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to deteriorate.

[Ed Mahmoud]

From Philippine site Typhoon2000.com, which reports PAGASA advisories

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Fri May 08 2009
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 121.3º E Lon
Distance 1: Over Ifugao-Mt.Province Border
Distance 2: 80 km (43 nm) SW of Tuguegarao City
Distance 3: 100 km (55 nm) NE of Baguio City
Distance 4: 155 km (83 nm) NE of Dagupan City
Distance 5: 115 km (63 nm) SE of Vigan City
Distance 6: 125 km (67 nm) NW of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 280 km (150 nm) North of Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: ENE @ 24 kph (13 kts)
General Direction: Isabela-Cagayan Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PST Thu May 7
JTWC Ship Avoidance Final TrackMap: 12Z Thu May 7
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Thu May 7 new!
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect: PANGASINAN, NORTHERN ZAMBALES, TARLAC, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS PROVINCES, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, APAYAO, AND ABRA.


PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: REST OF ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, QUIRINO, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, BABUYAN AND BATANES.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight until tomorrow (with winds of up to 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, LUBANG ISLAND, BATAAN, BULACAN, CAVITE, RIZAL, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1, 2 & 3 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge that could reach a high of 4 to 5 feet.

As a side note, I have consumed more than a few San Miguel's in Zambales and Pampanga provinces.

[HURAKAN]

JTWC says goodbye.

[senorpepr]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "EMONG" (Chan-hom)

Issued at 5:00 a.m., Friday, 08 May 2009 Typhoon "EMONG" has weakened into a tropical storm after crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and is now off the coast of Isabela.

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 110 kms East of Tuguegarao City or
150 kms Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan

Coordinates: 17.6°N, 122.8°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 120 kph

Movement: Northeast at 15 kph.

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday morning:
370 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or
300 kms East Southeast of Basco, Batanes

Sunday morning:
570 kms East Northeast of Basco, Batanes

Monday morning:
850 kms Northeast of Basco, Batanes or
190 kms East Southeast of Okinawa, Japan


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Cagayan
Isabela


Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Apayao
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Babuyan Gr.of Islands
Calayan Gr.of Islands

[Chacor]

JMA holds at 55 kt.

WTPQ21 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 17.4N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 18.1N 125.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 100000UTC 19.0N 125.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 110000UTC 20.0N 123.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[Chacor]

Back from the dead from JTWC.

WTPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 019
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.9N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.1N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.7N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.7N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 123.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEESIDE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS, WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SURFACE.
BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS, JTWC IS RESUMING WARNINGS ON TS 02W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 17.3N 125.2E POOR
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 19.0N 125.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 101200UTC 21.8N 124.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 111200UTC 24.7N 123.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081401ZMAY2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.5N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.8N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.2N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.8N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 127.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST WARNING WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORING
A TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF TS 02W. SEE REF A (WDPN32 PGTW
081500) FOR MORE INFORMATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 17N 128E
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 998HPA =

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 18N 129E ENE SLOWLY.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

I love the look of semi-naked sprials.