EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

[Derek Ortt]

Why that big difference in pressure=Best Track has 999 mbs while ADT has 1008 mbs?

ADT uses a simple curve and does not take into account any obs

[Derek Ortt]

wrong advisory, Luis

That is 1-E

[HURAKAN]

292
WTPZ22 KNHC 220248
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
0300 UTC MON JUN 22 2009

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWARD TO MANZANILLO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 102.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 103.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.6N 103.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.8N 104.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 21.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 101.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

100
WTPZ32 KNHC 220249
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

...FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWARD TO MANZANILLO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 330 MILES...
530 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...
AND A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 101.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220251
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE
HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...WITH BANDING
FEATURES INCREASING AND A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT THE HIGHER ESTIMATE GIVEN THE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MARKS
THE LATEST FORMATION OF THE FIRST NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC BASIN SINCE 1971.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/05...WHICH IS TO THE
LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE MOST RECENT GFDL AND HWRF RUNS
IMMEDIATELY TAKE ANDRES ON A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE VERY CLOSE TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR FROM MODEL FIELDS WHAT IS CAUSING
THIS MOTION. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT REMAINS LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GUIDE ANDRES ON A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST. ULTIMATELY...AS
ANDRES WEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED
WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 48-72 HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY RAPID DROP OFF IN OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANDRES
REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ANDRES
PEAKING IN INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A STEADY DECREASE
IN STRENGTH BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII OF ANDRES...THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 14.8N 101.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.1N 102.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 103.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.6N 103.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.8N 104.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.5N 113.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 21.5N 117.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

A record was made.

THIS MARKS
THE LATEST FORMATION OF THE FIRST NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC BASIN SINCE 1971.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

Finally!! , Andres is a very healthy storm, I think it has a medium chance to become a cat 1 hurricane. SST are very warm but shear could be the limiting factor, it seems to be a little high west of Andres but is diminishing and is expexted to be light for the next 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

http://severe.worldweather.org/tc/cgn/index.html

[cycloneye]

This pass was made tonight at 9:02 PM EDT.Impressive circulation,and look at the strong wind barbs.

[HURAKAN]

413
AXPZ20 KNHC 220325
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
ANDRES AT 03/0300 UTC...CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 101.9W OR ABOUT 205
MILES S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AT 031/0300 UTC MOVING W 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ARE SHOWING THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. WHAT EARLIER APPEARED TO BE
A TIGHT BANDING FEATURE TRYING TO WRAP UNDER THE CENTER FROM
THE W...HAS GIVEN WAY TO AN INCREASING LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S QUADRANT.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM IN THE
S SEMICIRCLE...AND A 60 NM WIDE BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM 13N104W
TO 16N104W TO 18N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
EXISTS FROM 12.5N-13N BETWEEN 103W-105W AND WITHIN 30 NM
OF A LINE FROM 14N98W TO 16N99W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS PER LATEST NHC FORECAST
FORECAST.

CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED WELL E OF THE CENTER TO
ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM EL SALVADOR
TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 91W-98W INCLUDING THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
SW MEXICO...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANAMA.

AGUIRRE

[Cainer]

I think the NHC has been underestimating Andres a little. As of right now, the SST's are warm, the shear is low, and the organization continues to increase. What does the SHIPS say about the chances for rapid intensification, anyway?

[KWT]

Looks very good, I think this has a very good chance of becoming a hurricane given the strength of the convection and circulation.

[HURAKAN]

741
WTPZ32 KNHC 220833
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

...ANDRES STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO MANZANILLO MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 310 MILES...
505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...
AND A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ANDRES COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 102.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


126
WTPZ42 KNHC 220834
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...WITH
SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF
THE TROPICAL STORM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THIS IS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT WITH A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO WHICH
SHOWED AT LEAST ONE BELIEVABLE WIND VECTOR IN THE 40 TO 45 KT
RANGE. ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL PROJECTS 20 TO 25
KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT THIS DIRECTION OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS
LESS UNFAVORABLE THAN SHEAR FROM SOME OTHER DIRECTIONS. GIVEN THIS
AND OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUCH AS ABUNDANT LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY...BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM PREDICT THAT ANDRES WILL BECOME
A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/3 AS THE CENTER IS
DIFFICULT TO TRACK USING NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES. THE TRACK
FORECAST CONTINUES TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW ANDRES MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO. THIS MOTION WOULD APPARENTLY BE THE RESULT OF ANDRES
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE
WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS
ALSO SHOW PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER
MEXICO...WHICH WOULD TEND TO DRIVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK...OR AT LEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT
STILL LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 4 TO 5 DAYS IT
IS LIKELY THAT ANDRES WILL BE A WEAKENING SYSTEM BEING STEERED
MAINLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK STILL DOES NOT EXPLICITLY
INDICATE LANDFALL...IT IS NONETHELESS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST SO
THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.0N 102.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.6N 102.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.6N 104.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 105.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 108.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 21.5N 117.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

359
WTPZ32 KNHC 221143
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
500 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

...ANDRES MOVING SLOWLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO MANZANILLO MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...295 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 325 MILES...
525 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...
AND A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ANDRES COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.2N 102.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

EP, 02, 2009062212, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1019W, 45, 997, TS

[cycloneye]

755
WTPZ22 KNHC 221443
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1500 UTC MON JUN 22 2009

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 800 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 800 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO ZIHUATANEJO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 103.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 104.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

105
WTPZ32 KNHC 221444
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 800 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 800 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO ZIHUATANEJO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 255
MILES...415 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES
WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ANDRES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.0N 102.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN


WTPZ42 KNHC 221445
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 1035 UTC SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF ANDRES
WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE EXPECTED POSITION. OVERALL...ANDRES
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW AND CONVECTIVE
PATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 330/04...USING THE TRMM AND
QUIKSCAT MICROWAVE FIXES FROM OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATE THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS JUST NORTH OF ANDRES AND
THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE HELPED STEER THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD THAN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH WEAKENING
AND MOVING NORTHWARD WITH TIME AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER MEXICO. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THESE EVENTS IS CRITICAL TO WHETHER ANDRES WILL
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO OR MOVE ONSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NOW SHOWS THE CENTER OF ANDRES MOVING VERY CLOSE TO
THE MEXICAN COAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TRICKY WITH THE TRACK
FORECAST EDGING CLOSER TO LAND. WHILE ANDRES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM SSTS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. IN A DAY OR SO...THE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LAND MAY INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...ANDRES WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER
SSTS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MORE STABLE AIR...CAUSING MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW
AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS BEFORE...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST IS SHOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES ANY FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...ANDRES
COULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT EXPLICITLY
INDICATE LANDFALL...IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.0N 102.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.8N 103.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 104.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 106.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 108.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 22.0N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Recon for tuesday afternoon

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 22 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-025

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ANDRES
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0102E ANDRES
C. 23/1300Z
D. 18.4N 104.0W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?