ATL: INVEST (97L)

[wxman57]

What model does SHIP use for the location of the disturbance?

SHIPS is using BAMM for initial guidance. Click the last link on this page and you will see that the lat/lon points match BAMM:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

[Aric Dunn]

The 12Z GFS does break down the TUTT in 24 hours, though I have my doubts it'll be gone that quickly. But without any LLC and/or significant organized convection, all we'll have is just another tropical wave moving to the west across the tropics. So development chances would still be low.

I agree.. Convection is a must ... lol

does it break it down or just move it westward? dont feel like pulling it up again ..

[KWT]

Doesn't look too great right now, I'll be surprised if it forms, though I wouldn't rule it out much further down the line (like nearly a week down the line) and if it does form then I'd expect it to be one of those short lived systems that skirt up north just east of the east coast. Still we shall see!

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS does break down the TUTT in 24 hours, though I have my doubts it'll be gone that quickly. But without any LLC and/or significant organized convection, all we'll have is just another tropical wave moving to the west across the tropics. So development chances would still be low.

I agree.. Convection is a must ... lol

does it break it down or just move it westward? dont feel like pulling it up again ..

According to HPC it lifts northward leaving an area of favorable upper-level winds across the Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

right, forgot that was just posted and i just read that .. duh

thanks for reminding me..

justed looked at WV. the TUTT does look pretty meager as well, like WXMAN57 said. I have my doubts.

the first wave is still flaring up well, with quite a decent surface circ taking shape.. so much shear though... that wave will really have to be watched if it can find a lower shear area in a couple days..

[wxman57]

Gatgorcane,

Yes, GFS lifts the TUTT northward tomorrow evening.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the 12z Euro
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

showing some of that energy making to florida..

[KWT]

the first wave is still flaring up well, with quite a decent surface circ taking shape.. so much shear though... that wave will really have to be watched if it can find a lower shear area in a couple days..

Wouldn't shock me to eventually see this become an invest as well.

[wxman57]

In addition, dry air is beginning to wrap around 97L, as can be seen here on the latest MIMIC TPW imagery (red/brown areas are moisture, blue areas dry air):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[Aric Dunn]

In addition, dry air is beginning to wrap around 97L, as can be seen here on the latest MIMIC TPW imagery (red/brown areas are moisture, blue areas dry air):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

yeah its still there..from yesterday .. but has been cut off and is the original plume of dry air.

that area is gradually shrinking and moistening up the father it gets from the source.

there is no doubt this thing has some issues to overcome and not a terribly long time to do it.. but like Chris in 96 it eventually happened than got tore up but shear.. lol

[cycloneye]

57,is the wave in front of 97L moist the air enough to cause less dry air as 97L moves west?

[Aric Dunn]

Typically that would be the case and should take place there does not seem to be any new pushes of dry air coming down the pike at least not that i can see
but will see how it does getting rid of the present dry air it has to deal with. which is slowing diminishing.

[wxman57]

57, will the wave in front of 97L moisten the air enough to cause less dry air as 97L moves west?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

In this case, it doesn't appear so. Check the MIMIC TPW loop for low to mid level moisture availability. The dry air is flowing in between 97L and the wave approaching the Caribbean. What moisture is associated with the first wave will be gone when 97L reaches the same area.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

By the way, the first wave out in front of 97L is interacting with the TUTT, thus the increased convection presently.

[Aric Dunn]

Hi my name is "Breaking the laws of thermodynamics"

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Surface Analysis adds a Surface Low

For the members who are newbies,this means that when you read the 8 PM EDT Discussion,the paragrafh about this tropical wave will have the surface low mentioned.By the way,a new wave has been added behind 97L.



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

[pepeavilenho]

hi!!
can someone explain me which are tis invest??
http://mpittweather.com/95l.htm

http://mpittweather.com/96l.htm

and when have they happened??
thanks! and excuse me if this is not the correct topic...

[jaxfladude]

Did the folks that are responsible for invests get too bored again?
The last "L" invest was an invention made out of pure boredom.

[RL3AO]

hi!!
can someone explain me which are tis invest??
http://mpittweather.com/95l.htm

http://mpittweather.com/96l.htm

and when have they happened??
thanks! and excuse me if this is not the correct topic...

For some reason 95 and 96L were skipped. This should be 95L but the NHC tagged it as 97L for some reason.

[Aric Dunn]

18 UTC Surface Analysis adds a Surface Low

For the members who are newbies,this means that when you read the 8 PM EDT Discussion,the paragrafh about this tropical wave will have the surface low mentioned.By the way,a new wave has been added behind 97L.



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

not surprised .. there was some clear curvature to the wind field .. it very weak at the moment though

[Aric Dunn]

Nogaps pulls the TUTT out and in 30 hours has a slight upper high east of the islands
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgri ... aor+avnshr