WTPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 132.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.9N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.5N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.0N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.7N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 131.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W
(MORAKOT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING INTO THE CENTER
OF A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ALONG WITH VENTING INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST, IS ALSO EVIDENT. A 050424Z AMSU
IMAGE SHOWS CURVED INFLOW LINES ON THE SURFACE WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON POSITION ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW.
OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AND GFS BOTH LOSING
THE CIRCULATION AFTER 36 HOURS AND TRACKING ERRONEOUS ARTIFACTS TO
THE NORTHEAST BUT ALL OTHER AIDS CONTINUE THE SYSTEM INTO THE
MAINLAND OF CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
