WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[HurricaneHunter914]

:uarrow: Not really. If you go draw a line in the middle of the models, the eye of Lupit barely brushes the coast of Luzon. Still could do considerable damage though.

We're actually more worried w/ the rain....

The HK model seems to be the worst case scenario....

Yeah, that's what I meant, even if Lupit doesn't make landfall, the rain will be the most dangerous. However, that's quite different than getting a direct hit.

[StormingB81]

The next 48 hours are going to be very important for 3 countries. Has there ever been a storm where they wouldnt know where it is going?

[JTE50]

I'm up here in Aparri - northern coast of the Philippines - waiting for Lupit. Only have an internet cafe here so I can't wifi my laptop with all my quick links to Lupit. If you folks would kindly keeping posting the JMA and JTWC forecasts I'd really appreciate it. Also, have a crowd of locals looking over my shoulder very interested too. Thanks.

Jim Edds
ExtremeStorms.com

[cycloneye]

JMA 00 UTC Warning.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 21 October 2009
<Analyses at 21/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°10'(20.2°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 120km(65NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E122°05'(122.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

[StormingB81]

JMA just changed there forcast yet again. Closer to Tiawan

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/09205c.html

[oaba09]

JMA just changed there forcast yet again. Closer to Tiawan

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/09205c.html

So it's either taiwan or the Philippines....I'm curious as to what the next JTWC update would indicate...

[oaba09]

:uarrow: Not really. If you go draw a line in the middle of the models, the eye of Lupit barely brushes the coast of Luzon. Still could do considerable damage though.

We're actually more worried w/ the rain....

The HK model seems to be the worst case scenario....

Yeah, that's what I meant, even if Lupit doesn't make landfall, the rain will be the most dangerous. However, that's quite different than getting a direct hit.

Yeah, I know what you mean...I already experienced a direct hit before(Local name Typhoon Milenyo). I forgot the international name of that one...It wasn't a good experience...

[beaufort12]

To my eye the last few infrared frames are showing WSW movement. Let's hope not.

[oaba09]

To my eye the last few infrared frames are showing WSW movement. Let's hope not.

Yeah..that's what I'm seeing too...Honestly, people are scared here especially those in the north like aparri

[oaba09]

I'm up here in Aparri - northern coast of the Philippines - waiting for Lupit. Only have an internet cafe here so I can't wifi my laptop with all my quick links to Lupit. If you folks would kindly keeping posting the JMA and JTWC forecasts I'd really appreciate it. Also, have a crowd of locals looking over my shoulder very interested too. Thanks.

Jim Edds
ExtremeStorms.com

I'm sure the people there are anxious......

[StormingB81]

Wunderground has it just missing PI and Tawain and coming near Okinawa. we just all have to wait and see.

[cycloneye]

Waiting for the 0300z JTWC warning.I see it moving WSW.

[oaba09]

Waiting for the 0300z JTWC warning.I see it moving WSW.

Is it supposed to move WSW based on the JMA forecast?

[metenthusiast]

To my eye the last few infrared frames are showing WSW movement. Let's hope not.

Yeah..that's what I'm seeing too...Honestly, people are scared here especially those in the north like aparri

That's also what I'm observing. To my untrained eye, it seems to be moving WSW and south of the forecast track. Might only be a wobble, though...

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=16.00358&lon=130.14404&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=metric&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=1&sat.num=8&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=108&sat.type=IR4&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=0&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=0&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Warning=80 kts

Officially moving westsouthwest according to this warning.Track unchanged over northern Luzon.

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.6N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.4N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 126.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

0300z JTWC Warning=80 kts

Officially moving westsouthwest according to this warning.Track unchanged over northern Luzon.

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.6N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.4N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 126.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

It seems like they're sticking w/ their forecast...

[metenthusiast]

PAGASA said that Lupit might delay landfall until Friday morning and might not hit land at all. I guess that's what JMA and other models are saying, based on their recent forecasts.

Let me tell you that anticipation is getting a bit tedious, for me at any rate... I just hope this system simply turns and go away...

[drdavisjr]

PAGASA said that Lupit might delay landfall until Friday morning and might not hit land at all. I guess that's what JMA and other models are saying, based on their recent forecasts.

Let me tell you that anticipation is getting a bit tedious, for me at any rate... I just hope this system simply turns and go away...

Maybe the ridge to the nw will weaken enough to allow it to recurve, finally.

[ozonepete]

I had to go out to a friends wake, and just got home. Now I have to call it a night - very tired. But as always, I'm fascinated by hard to predict storms such as this. At this point it's clearly weakening again - it's lost a lot of convection. The weaker it gets, the more it may get pulled northward. I would say the smartest forecast is in between the JTWC and JMA, which would have it pass about 50 miles north of the north Luzon coast and then turn northwest. The key question for Hong Kong and Japan is how sharp of a turn it will make when it recurves. It certainly looks like it will remain a slow mover, so unfortunately there's no fast or easy solution. The good news is that it will not be terribly strong. The bad news is that it could move slowly enough that it could dump a lot of rain on the northern Philippines again. Just still too early to tell, I hate to say.

Metenthusiast, I hope you are keeping your earlier appointment!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[drdavisjr]

The latest Dvorak CI# is 3.6

19.93N 126.64E

Still moving slowly WSW