EPAC : Tropical Depression (01E)

#81 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:45 am

Center appears to be under the northernmost part of the convection.

#82 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:04 am

Looking at history, if Andrés forms at 18z (2 PM ET), then 2009 will tie 1998 for the second latest year in which the first storm has been named. The record is also at hand, 06Z June 19, 1994.

#83 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:36 am

309
WTPZ21 KNHC 181435
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
1500 UTC THU JUN 18 2009

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.1N 107.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.9N 107.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 108.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

#84 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:37 am

780
WTPZ31 KNHC 181435
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
800 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT
370 MILES...595 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.2N 108.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
800 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE
DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE 2009 EAST
PACIFIC SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/08. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...SHOWING A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND
TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
LEFT AND THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT...WHICH SHOWS THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THE SYSTEM IN ITS FIELDS.

DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON THE LIMITED
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 0000 UTC RUN OF THE GFDL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THERE IS
A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO AND LAS ISLAS MARIAS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION MAY IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA WELL BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 18.2N 108.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 19.8N 108.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 23.1N 107.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 24.9N 107.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

#85 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:40 am

If the forecast is confirmed, the record of 1994 will fall in 2009!

Iune · #86 Postby **Iune** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:45 am

HURAKAN wrote:Looking at history, if Andrés forms at 18z (2 PM ET), then 2009 will tie 1998 for the second latest year in which the first storm has been named. The record is also at hand, 06Z June 19, 1994.

I did some research and found out that the latest start from the best track is Valerie of 1964. It formed on July 6.

#87 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:47 am

Phoenix's Song wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Looking at history, if Andrés forms at 18z (2 PM ET), then 2009 will tie 1998 for the second latest year in which the first storm has been named. The record is also at hand, 06Z June 19, 1994.

I did some research and found out that the latest start from the best track is Valerie of 1964. It formed on July 6.

Before 1970, the data for the EPAC is sketchy at best. That's why we have been saying it is based from 1970 to the present.

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:35 am

#89 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:57 am

Only Puerto San Ángel, Tampico, and Catedral are working. The radars around the expected landfall point are down.

KWT · #90 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:00 am

Got about another 12hrs for this to become a tropical storm otherwise 2009 goes into top place.

I wouldn't be too suprised though if this does come very close, convection still looks decent and in fact I do think the center of circulation is quite close to the convection. I actually wouldn't be too surprised to see if we do get a TS just before the deadline so to speak.

These sorts of convectivly active systems tend to be able to go through the lower-middle end of TS status quite rapidly so thats worth watching.

#91 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:08 am

This system still has major organization problems.

Derek Ortt · #92 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:13 am

I do not see a center where NHC put it. Nothing on SWIR or microwave

KWT · #93 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:15 am

It really does look like the center is in the convection, I know its tough to tell just using Vis but it sure looks like any center is in the convection.

IF it is a center in the middle of convection then this system could strengthen quite quickly.

#94 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:19 am

KWT wrote:It really does look like the center is in the convection, I know its tough to tell just using Vis but it sure looks like any center is in the convection.

IF it is a center in the middle of convection then this system could strengthen quite quickly.

The question is, is that the MLC or the LLC? During the past few days the MLC has dominated. I would suspect that what we see in the visible images is the MLC. Unfortunately the latest Quikscat missed this system.

#95 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:25 am

KWT · #96 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:29 am

If the center is within the convection then that looks like a TS to me, still its a big uncertainty and something that is going to have to be watched closey.

#97 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:40 am

It seems, based on this, that the center is under the convection or just under the northern part.

#98 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:34 pm

11 AM PDT Intermediate Advisory

813
WTPZ31 KNHC 181730
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...NEAR LATITUDE 17.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES...645 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES...430
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.7N 108.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

Derek Ortt · #99 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:44 pm

based upon the QS, the winds are 30KT, not 25KT. Maybe that QS missed a rain flag though

#100 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 18, 2009 1:42 pm

18 UTC Best Track

No upgrade to Tropical Storm.

EP, 01, 2009061818, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1082W, 25, 1005, TD

EPAC : Tropical Depression (01E)

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Re: EPAC : Tropical Depression ONE-E

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