EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

#81 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:34 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUN 2009 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 16:01:02 N Lon : 102:00:35 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 995.1mb/ 57.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.6 4.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb

Center Temp : -78.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

#82 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:37 am

Cuyutlán is working but nothing yet in radar image. I will be excellent in a day.

#83 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:47 am

57 knots? So a 60 knot (70 mph) tropical storm per the CI? Hmm...I dunno, though quikscat did have those 45 knot barbs, and that was quite a while ago.

Correction, looking at the graphic on the previous page, quikscat had a few 50 knot barbs, so the 60 knots does not seem to be an overestimate

#84 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 12:33 pm

11 AM PDT Intermediate Advisory=60 mph

207
WTPZ32 KNHC 221731
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

...ANDRES STRENGTHENING...
...RAINFALL AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES...390 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES WILL
BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ANDRES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.1N 102.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

#85 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 1:06 pm

#86 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 1:22 pm

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 02, 2009062218, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1023W, 50, 995, TS

#87 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:12 pm

Is an eye-feature trying to open?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

hurricanefloyd5 · #88 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:20 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

looks to becoming a hurricane and fast IMHO!!

#89 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:28 pm

140
WHXX01 KMIA 221820
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC MON JUN 22 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES (EP022009) 20090622 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090622 1800 090623 0600 090623 1800 090624 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 102.3W 17.6N 102.4W 18.9N 102.9W 20.1N 103.5W
BAMD 16.0N 102.3W 17.0N 103.6W 18.2N 105.1W 19.2N 106.7W
BAMM 16.0N 102.3W 17.4N 103.3W 18.8N 104.6W 20.1N 105.9W
LBAR 16.0N 102.3W 17.1N 103.0W 18.6N 104.1W 20.2N 105.5W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 58KTS 55KTS
DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 58KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090624 1800 090625 1800 090626 1800 090627 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 104.3W 21.4N 106.8W 22.8N 109.6W 24.2N 113.1W
BAMD 19.8N 108.5W 20.9N 112.0W 22.0N 115.5W 23.6N 119.2W
BAMM 20.8N 107.4W 21.7N 111.1W 22.8N 114.8W 24.0N 118.9W
LBAR 21.5N 107.0W 23.6N 110.1W 25.7N 112.0W 28.2N 113.8W
SHIP 51KTS 37KTS 20KTS 0KTS
DSHP 51KTS 37KTS 20KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 102.3W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 101.7W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 101.2W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1004MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

Macrocane · #90 Postby **Macrocane** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:30 pm

It looks like a banding eye is trying to form, I think it could be a hurricane tonight.

hurricanefloyd5 · #91 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:33 pm

Macrocane wrote:It looks like a banding eye is trying to form, I think it could be a hurricane tonight.

i AGREE IF NOT BY THE NEXT adv. huh and maybe even hurricane warnings too

#92 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:34 pm

#93 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:47 pm

T numbers from ADT confirm what we are seeing in the recent sat pics.

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUN 2009 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 16:16:24 N Lon : 102:10:18 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 992.2mb/ 61.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.1 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Center Temp : -68.4C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt02E.html

#94 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 3:11 pm

Here's the 1915 UTC update:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUN 2009 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 16:18:42 N Lon : 102:11:55 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.8mb/ 63.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.9 4.1 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

#95 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 3:37 pm

880
WTPZ32 KNHC 222034
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

...ANDRES CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTO
SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES
...370 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES
WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ANDRES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE AS ANDRES MOVES CLOSE TO THE WARNING AREA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.2N 102.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

882
WTPZ22 KNHC 222034
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2009

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTO
SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.1N 103.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.4N 104.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.6N 105.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 107.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 102.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

386
WTPZ42 KNHC 222035
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ANDRES
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...A BLEND OF THE 1800 UTC DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.

ANDRES HAS BEEN MOVING UNSTEADILY OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS...
ALTERNATING BETWEEN A MORE NORTHERLY AND WESTERLY HEADING. THE
12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/04. THE UNSTEADY MOTION IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF ANDRES AND AN UPPER-TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS WILL FORCE ANDRES TOWARD
THE WEST...BUT NOT BEFORE IT TRACKS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND
72 HOURS...THIS PACKAGE IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYZES NEARLY 20 KT OF SHEAR...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HAVING ANY ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE. ANDRES WILL
REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE A LITTLE FASTER NOW DUE TO THE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION SEEN TODAY. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR...RESULTING
IN SLOW WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF ANDRES MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
INTERACTS WITH LAND...IT COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED
HERE.

THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN THIS
PACKAGE REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.2N 102.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.1N 103.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.4N 104.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 19.6N 105.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.6N 107.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

#96 Postby **Cookie** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 5:51 pm

its looking good on the images

hurricanefloyd5 · #97 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 5:55 pm

this think is a possible hurricane now cause an eye is popping out or a possible eye anyways!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#98 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 6:37 pm

WTPZ32 KNHC 222336
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
500 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

...ANDRES MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND
ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES
WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ANDRES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE AS ANDRES MOVES CLOSE TO THE WARNING AREA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.4N 102.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

KWT · #99 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 6:43 pm

Still very surprised that its only at 60mph despite clearly organising and Dvorak estimates suggesting higher.

I do wonder what recon will show tomorrow, as long as it doesn't wobble inland could be quite interesting.

#100 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jun 22, 2009 6:46 pm

According to the 8 pm EDT advisory, it is a 60 mph TS...according to the CI numbers:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUN 2009 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 16:20:23 N Lon : 102:29:48 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 987.8mb/ 67.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.2 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Center Temp : -71.5C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

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