ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[MGC]

Close to being a TD again....MGC

[Thunder44]

It looks better than 90L, and better than when it was classified as TD 2. So why isn't it a TD now?

Note that the upper low/trof to its NW (see WV loop) is likely enhancing the outflow and contributing to the current burst of convection. What happens after it passes the trof axis is the big question. Can it maintain the convection once it gets its engine started?

I think NHC wants to see the convection persist longer, after the burst from overnight diminished. I was just looking at water vapor loop here, and I also noticed there some dry air trying to wrap around from the south, that could cause the t-storms to diminsh this afternoon once again:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Of course, if they are flying a plane this afternoon in it, they could find something to still ugprade again.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

They will fly the G-IV which goes up around 41,000 feet.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow it sure looks great this morning, I would think the NHC will hold off until late today to upgrade it but if convection continues to increase this could become Ana after all.

[BensonTCwatcher]

QS has some 30kt uncontaminated vectors and sat presentation looks like a TD to me, we'll see if recon finds a TS, TD or what

[Scorpion]

Should be Ana later today.

[Thunder44]

They will fly the G-IV which goes up around 41,000 feet.

I just noticed they won't fly out until 4pm EDT. And if they fly that high, they probably won't find anything.

[cycloneye]

They will fly the G-IV which goes up around 41,000 feet.

I just noticed it will go out until 4pm EDT. And if it flies that high, they probably won't find anything.

We will have to wait until Sunday afternoon when the first normal mission will take place.

[Sanibel]

This has a better surface structure than anything so far.


It is headed towards a part of the basin that has destroyed everything that touched it this year:

[BensonTCwatcher]

Convection is pulsing (currently fading) but the circulation looks strong and symmetrical and some banding is trying to get going, so it might re-fire enough to get there.

[Derek Ortt]

there is a P3 flight tomorrow

[KWT]

Pretty decent little thing right now, if it holds this for a little while longer and I suspect we will be seeing this upgraded to a depression yet again.

[brunota2003]

The Little Engine That Could

[Gustywind]

Looks correct, improving system..

[Sanibel]

I'd like to think of TD2 as a technical feature wave that happened to develop a good surface center as the first wave strong enough to do so in the overall negative conditions of 2009. If this is correct it should move into the still existing negative conditions ahead and remain a weak denuded surface feature spouting a weak center convection burst. So far the other waves before TD2 would indicate this. However one never knows when the switch will suddenly turn on and only need a spark like TD2 to set off a good cyclone. But you have to guess that TD2 is indicating the current conditions as they exist and they are still negative.

[artist]

This thing really seems be wrapping up nicely.

[hurricanebuoy]

Our local private weather service here in Houston just sent out an update saying all of the above, but they also made a statement that they believe by late next week it will cross the FL peninsula and cross into the NE GOM.

[Iune]

good image http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc09/ATL/02L.TWO/vis/modis/qkm/20090814.1354.terra.x.visqkm.02LTWO.25kts-1008mb-146N-417W.89pc.jpg

[Gustywind]